Fantasy football analyst Dalton Del Don analyzes some key numbers as we go through the 2023 draft season.
Will Breece Hall pick up where he left off?
Breece Hall would always be played slow early in the season when he returned from cruciate ligament surgery, and now his ADP will definitely drop after that Dalvin Cook signed with the Jets. Cook could be better after shoulder surgery, but he ranked 35th out of 37 qualified backs in rush yards last season and is 28 years old. He will also learn a new offense and has yet to be cleared to practice after surgery.
Hall, meanwhile, was taken off the PUP list on Tuesday and remains a top-15 fantasy RB on my plate. He averaged 97.2 yards from scrimmage with just 14.1 touches per game, playing with a poor QB situation last year (scoring five touchdowns in over six games).
Hal too led all backs with an explosive run rateplaced second in yards per route and simply stood out as a rookie. Hal had most air gauges among running backs despite running 250+ fewer routes than the next (Christian Macaffrey) while playing only 6.5 games (oh, and be a rookie). He now goes from one of the worst QB situations in the league to a Hall of Famer who likes to target RBs.
Hal is an exceptional athlete who has just become one of the best targets in fantasy as he falls to round five/six by Cook’s signing.
Patrick Mahomes arguably the best footballer ever, but Jalen hurts is my number 1 fantasy QB going into 2023. Hurts led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. Weeks 1-15 before a shoulder injury cost him two games and limited him to another, ending last season. He’s now played injured in all three years in the NFL for the past month, so it’s possible his style of play will continue to hinder him in 2023 – or he’ll set historic fantasy stats if he ever stays healthy for 17 games. .
Hurts has improved significantly since entering the league and has benefited from it A. J. Brownarrival, Devonta Smith‘s growth and a dominant line of attack. Hurts got 8.0 YPA and took second (including RBs!) expected rushing touchdowns (11.2) last season, which is a pretty sick fantasy combo. He scored 10 touchdowns within the 2-yard line, and the “push play” somehow remains legal.
Miles Sanders had carries the fourth most red zone last year but gone now. Additionally, Hurts ranked 32nd among qualifying QBs in dropbacks per game (only 12.9) in the second half, which is sure to go downhill in 2023 – the Eagles won 14 games last year, but have an Over/ Under of 10.5 wins. volume and a lot of rush to the top that Mahomes doesn’t match, Hurts is my best fantasy QB and is worth an early second round pick.
Are Calvin Ridley and Trevor Lawrence a match made in fantasy heaven?
Calvin Ridley has impressed in Jacksonville after missing the past year and a half, and a full off-season with his new team should help. Ridley emerged as one of the league’s top receivers before he was stepped down and later suspended, and now gets to play with one of the league’s top up and coming quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence saw the largest increase in the Passer Rating from year 1 to year 2 in NFL history and is likely to develop into a full-fledged star this season (with the help of Ridley’s addition). Lawrence attempted the fourth most end zone passes last year, and there is no alpha WR competing for goals in Jacksonville.
Ridley is a top-15 WR on my board. Reports have Ridley looks fantasticand he ended up in an ideal place in Jacksonville with a rising franchise QB and all an offense involving heavy use of wide receivers. I recently bet on it The talented Mr. Ridley to finish at 50/1 with the most receiving yards in the NFL this season.
I have Tua Tagovailoa ranked beyond Justin Herbert, who goes into checkers six rounds earlier. Tagovailoa carries additional health risks, but that’s the best case for Herbert, who threw the same number of touchdowns last season with 299 more attempts. Tua’s 8.9 YPA was one of the top 10 season marks since the 1980s. Tagovailoa can play along two legitimate superstar wide receivers in Tirek Hill And Jaylen Waddle and benefits from it a coaching legend in a team with a higher than expected success rate.
We just need him to stay healthyand Tua could be an MVP candidate this season.
Playing with rib and shoulder injuries last year, Herbert got a major upgrade at OC during the off-season and watched LAC field a WR in the first round, so his efficiency will recover in 2023. Still, these two quarterbacks shouldn’t be going to the 70s. picks apart.