The WNBA offseason enters its second leg today. After a ten-day extension of qualifying offers to preserve the rights of their own free agents, teams are now allowed to negotiate with anyone. Contracts cannot officially be finalized until February 1, but deals will be agreed before then if not signed on the dotted line.
This is a unique offseason for the league as it prepares for a new collective bargaining agreement next year. With the WNBA exploding in popularity and a new TV deal bringing in more revenue, salaries are expected to rise in 2026 and most free agents will sign one-year contracts to hit the market again next season. That limits the future planning that teams can make this year.
“I’m going to sign another year so I can continue to have that flexibility going forward,” Breanna Stewart said during the WNBA Finals. “I have guided people to ensure that they sign a one-year contract, otherwise their contract will expire after the 2025 season.”
Stewart is headlining another large pool of free agents in the 2025 offseason, featuring multiple former MVPs and multiple All-Stars. Stewart has already announced that she will return to the New York Liberty, but there should be a lot more movement as other teams prepare to take on the defending champions.
Here are seven predictions for what will happen during the WNBA offseason:
1. Satou Sabally ends up in New York
In previous years, the trade package for a first-team All-WNBA player included multiple first-round picks. Skylar Diggins-Smith scored three firsts en route to Phoenix; DeWanner Bonner scored four for Connecticut; even the return for Allisha Gray, who wasn’t yet an All-Star, was two first-rounders.
However, all these players had contracts for several years. (Four each for Diggins-Smith and Bonner, and two for Gray.) The Mercury also gave up two firsts, with former Rookie of the Year Michaela Onyen to Kahleah Copper, who had two years left on her extension. Sabally will likely only sign a one-year deal wherever she goes, reducing her trade value.
This is how New York comes into the mix. The Liberty have all their firsts available, but they don’t have great value as the team expects to be very good over the next three years. However, New York has attractive veterans and players on rookie contracts. Could a package of Leonie Fiebich, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and a 2026 scoop get the job done? Rebekah Gardner and Kennedy Burke could fill the remaining wing minutes, plus Marquesha Davis is still in development. The Liberty must be confident that Sabally wants to stay in New York to play alongside her college teammate Sabrina Ionescu and her sister Nyara. An added bonus: she was also born in New York!
Dallas has emphasized that he wants to lay a foundation for the future. Getting another first-rounder plus Fiebich with three years left on her rookie deal accomplishes that goal. Even if Laney-Hamilton doesn’t want to stick around past 2025, she would be an invaluable role player as the Wings attempt to return to the postseason.
2. Emma Meesseman signs in Phoenix
The Mercury became small in power in 2024 and chose to prioritize distance over size at that position. But that resulted in pathetic rebounding and subpar defense. With Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper still under contract and Brittney Griner expected to return to her only WNBA home, power forward is the Mercury’s top need this offseason.
Several free-agent power forwards could be options, including Nneka Ogwumike, Alyssa Thomas and Sabally. However, the last two both had core assets and Phoenix has limited assets to acquire in a trade. Ogwumike would be an attractive target, but Emma Meesseman would be a better fit (especially since Ogwumike seemed to enjoy her time in Seattle), even if she will miss some midseason games for EuroBasket.
Meesseman has been out of the WNBA for the past two seasons, but now that she is playing for Fenerbahçe, priorities will no longer bother her as the Turkish season ends on time. Meesseman’s play in the post, career-high 37.1 percent three-point shooting and her ability to defend both four and five make her an ideal partner for Griner. It would be difficult to get Meesseman back to the US, but Phoenix can make it work: the Mercury has one of the best facilities in the league, and Meesseman also has previous relationships with Washington’s Cloud, Chicago’s Copper and Diana Taurasi and Griner from UMMC Yekaterinburg. With several veterans with high basketball IQs in Phoenix, it could be a comfortable environment for Meesseman.
Kelsey Plum is the first member of the Aces’ core four to use unrestricted free agency instead of signing an extension during this current era in Las Vegas. There are indications that Plum wants a fresh start, and that could happen in Seattle, close to Plum’s college campus in Washington. Plum is beloved in the Pacific Northwest, and the Storm need a shooting guard now that Loyd has asked out. Loyd has a natural connection with the Aces and her three Olympic teammates A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young – all of whom are represented by Klutch Sports.
Las Vegas and Seattle are trying to be competitive in the short term, so it doesn’t make much sense to trade their All-Star/Olympian guards for draft assets or younger players. Better to get an equal replacement – Plum is a more efficient shooter, while Loyd is a more athletic finisher, but they are similar enough – and trust that a good season will convince the new shooting guard to re-sign in 2026.
4. Indiana strikes out in free agency
In some ways, the Fever are the league’s most attractive free agent destination. They play to a packed crowd every night and feature both the best young player in the game (Caitlin Clark) and Aliyah Boston. However, that also means whoever Indiana signs will have a relatively limited role, especially if Kelsey Mitchell returns. Free agents typically aren’t looking for the third option (at best).
There’s also no perfect fit for what the Fever need in this free agency class unless they can trade for Sabally. She was able to switch between playing the three and the four, providing the necessary defense and distance to surround Clark and Boston. Trading for Sabally for one season is risky, and word around the league is that Indiana isn’t one of Sabally’s favored markets. If I were in the Fever front office, I would still offer Lexie Hull, NaLyssa Smith and a pick for Sabally, but I would understand the reluctance.
If Indiana can’t get Sabally, then Ogwumike, Brionna Jones, and Natasha Howard are all a mismatch. Ogwumike is an excellent defender, but she has played at a more methodical pace for most of her career. Jones and Boston are somewhat ambiguous, and Howard’s shooting has been theoretical since she left Seattle. The Fever have enough money to hand out a contract of up to one year, but the bet is that their targets will go elsewhere.
It’s rebuilding time in Washington, so any useful veterans should be sent to the playoff teams for whatever resources the Mystics can get in return. Stefanie Dolson is an obvious candidate for a trade given Washington’s abundance of young players in the frontcourt (Aaliyah Edwards, Emily Engstler, Sika Koné and Shakira Austin) who need playing time, not to mention the rookie players who maybe at number 4 or no. 6 in the upcoming draft. Minnesota would be a good landing spot for Dolson, as the Lynx value spacing at the five (Dolson made 46.5 percent of her 3s last season) and need a bulkier backup center. It would require parting ways with a younger player like Dorka Juhász or Jess Shepard, but Dolson would be worth it.
Originally, Sykes was the second veteran listed here, but she’s harder to trade because even a rebuilding team needs a viable lead point guard, and the Mystics already lost Julie Vanloo in the expansion draft. Samuelson is more easily plug-and-play on a playoff team as a 39.7 percent 3-point shooter and a feisty defender. While her sister Katie Lou is constantly touted as the 3-and-D wing, it might be a more accurate name for Karlie Samuelson. Nearly every playoff team could use the older Samuelson sister. Phoenix would be my favorite fit, and Atlanta could also desperately use a good shooter off the bench.
It’s somewhat surprising that the Chicago Sky didn’t make a qualifying offer to Chennedy Carter, who was nothing short of dazzling for parts of the 2024 season. Even if they didn’t want to keep her, they could have gotten some value from another team through a trade. Now she is an unrestricted free agent. The only logic behind Chicago’s decision is that there was no significant interest in Carter (even then, take a second-round pick!) and the locker room drama was too much to tolerate.
Despite her immense talent, Carter has now worn out her welcome on three franchises, and several others would likely not take the risk for fear of disrupting the winning culture. However, Golden State needs to make a splash. With limited resources to trade for an established superstar, signing a free agent makes more sense for the Golden State Valkyries, and Carter fits the bill. Their expansion draft picks are all capable role players, but no one can take charge of an offense like Carter. She is the goal scorer they need, not to mention a highlight machine that would generate interest. Worst-case scenario, if Carter misbehaves again, Golden State could simply cut her and look to the 2026 draft for its next chance at a star.
Alyssa Thomas spent much of 2024 (and has begun 2025) not-so-subtly shading the amenities, or lack thereof, in Connecticut. Returning to the Sun after repeatedly failing to win a title, especially with a new, unproven coach, seems unlikely.
Alyssa told Thomas @TheNextHoops that Mohegan needs to do a better job in providing facilities for the Sun, who had to share a practice field the day before their first playoff game.
“To have to share your court with a two-year-old’s birthday party, [it’s the] ultimate contempt.” pic.twitter.com/FSIRam1ooS
— Noa Dalzell 🏀 (@NoaDalzell) September 23, 2024
But the Sun controls Thomas’ rights because of the core designation, and it’s difficult to find a spot that has the assets to trade for Thomas and the cap space to also sign her fiancé DeWanna Bonner. DiJonai Carrington is also a restricted free agent, but given that offer sheets for RFAs must be a minimum of two seasons, Carrington is more likely to stay in Connecticut and become a free agent in 2026.
The Sun had the second-best net rating in the league last season and now they have a full offseason to integrate Marina Mabrey. With the entire starting lineup returning (give or take Bri Jones, who also seems like a good fit for the Valkyries), Connecticut has a high floor, and perhaps that stability will be enough to keep Thomas and Bonner for the fireworks in 2026.
Top 20 free agents
* Player has core
**Player is limited
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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