To enjoy the snow, Phoenix residents usually drive a few hours north to Flagstaff or gaze at the snow-capped mountains that surround the valley. But in hope or fear, desert dwellers often wonder why it doesn’t snow much in America’s hottest city.
Temperatures can drop in Phoenix, but snow sticking to the ground is extremely rare.
“We could absolutely get snow in the Phoenix area,” said Arizona State Climatologist Erinanne Saffell. “You can see snow. You can stick out your tongue and catch it, but that is not necessarily measurable.”
Although it is possible, residents should not count on a white Christmas this year and snowbirds can safely leave their shovels at home.
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Can it snow in Phoenix?
Snow is possible in Phoenix, but snow that sticks and accumulates on the ground is rare. As the climate changes and the city continues to warm due to urban development, snow will become even less common.
Temperatures in the air and on the ground are the main factors for snow in the desert.
“To have snow in Phoenix, it has to be cold enough on the ground that you can measure it, so that’s the big advantage there,” Saffell said.
“Obviously, if you’re on the higher elevations around the Phoenix metro area — if you’re on South Mountain or the southern hills — you can absolutely have that stick of snow.”
The air may also not get cold enough to form snowflakes in winter if water droplets cannot freeze in the clouds.
“It’s based on temperature, and we’re seeing that temperatures have increased in the Phoenix metropolitan area,” Saffell said. “That urban heat island effect causes night temperatures to become warmer.”
An urban heat island occurs when infrastructure in metropolitan areas, such as buildings and roads, absorb and re-emit the sun’s heat, causing temperatures to become warmer than nearby rural areas.
“Less snow is definitely one of the consequences we see of the urban heat island,” she added.
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When has it snowed in Phoenix in the past?
Although snow is rare in Phoenix, it has stuck to the city streets a few times throughout history.
‘There have been traces throughout our reporting period. It’s just a trail, less than a hundredth of an inch across,” Saffell said. “It’s a very small amount, and measuring it is the big problem.”
A trace is a small amount of snow that falls but is too little to be measured by standard methods, less than 0.1 inches.
The most recent significant snowfall was on December 6, 1998, when Sky Harbor Airport recorded 0.22 inches of precipitation and a trace of snow on the ground.
The greatest amount of snow recorded at Sky Harbor was 1 inch on January 20, 1933 and January 21 and 22, 1937.
Since 1900, it has measurably snowed in downtown Phoenix only a handful of other times:
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March 12, 1917: 0.2 inches
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November 28, 1919: 0.1 inch
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February 2, 1939: 0.5 inches
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December 11, 1985: 0.1 inch
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December 21 and 22, 1990: 0.4 inches
But on the outskirts of town, at the higher elevations, snow falls and stays more often, as recently as this year.
On January 7, 2024, a snow and hail storm hit north Scottsdale, dusting the ground just enough to build mini snowmen.
“The further north you go in metro Phoenix, the likelihood of seeing snow increases because of the higher elevations,” said Alex Young, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service Phoenix.
If snow sticks around the edges, it usually doesn’t take long for warmer temperatures or rain to wash it away.
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Could it snow this year?
Even if the weather cools in time for the holidays — and Thanksgiving temperatures average above normal — it’s unlikely that central Phoenix’s streak of snowless winters will be broken this year.
The Southwest will likely experience a warmer and drier winter than normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The National Weather Service has issued a La Niña watch, a climatic condition associated with changes in ocean and atmospheric temperatures. During La Niña winters, many parts of the US tend to experience drier and warmer conditions.
There is a 57% chance that La Niña will appear by the end of the year, reducing snow chances across the state.
Even outside of natural climatic events like La Niña, snow will become less likely in coming winters due to climate change.
“Snow used to only happen once every 30 years,” Young said. “Given the way things are going with the warming climate, the chance of that happening is less than a once-in-30-years chance.”
Hayleigh Evans writes about extreme weather and related topics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Email her with story tips at hayleigh.evans@arizonarepublic.com.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Snow has fallen in Phoenix; it is rare and almost never lasts
