One of the most highly anticipated free agent seasons is upon us, and while the potential bidding war between the Mets and Yankees is over Juan Soto figures are the main event, there are plenty of other reasons for intrigue.
Both local teams were close enough to winning a championship in 2024 that this would be a crucial offseason in terms of taking that final step.
With that in mind, here are my 10 bold predictions for the MLB offseason, mostly centered around our New York teams and stars.
10. No team will infuriate its fans as much as the Pirates
This should be a great time to be a baseball fan in Pittsburgh Paul Skenes Last season he emerged as the most exciting pitcher since Stephen Strasbourgand teaming up with two other dominant young upstarts — Jared Jones And Mitch Keller.
It’s just that the Pirates’ 2025 payroll may only be slightly higher than the AAV of Soto’s new contract. On weekends GM Ben Cherington said clearly that free agency “is just not going to be the way we win here.”
As such, the Pirates almost certainly won’t contend for the postseason. Not that Mets or Yankees fans need to worry about that. But it’s bad for the sport when a team with exciting young stars can’t (or won’t) spend money to acquire more talent.
9. Phillies are trying to fix the bullpen… again
The bullpen has been a costly problem for the Phillies in recent years, but in October 2024 they thought they had the answers for the postseason, only to watch the Mets play players like Jeff Hofman, Matt Strahmand newly acquired Carlos Estevez in the late innings of the NLDS.
So look for the Phillies to spend big to try again, perhaps looking for the best reliever on the free agent market, lefty Tanner Scott. And who knows, maybe the Dodgers will stand out Blake Treinen also. Scott, who struck out Shohei Ohtani facing him all four times in their recent postseason game will likely draw significant interest as a free agent, perhaps from the Yankees as well.
8. Mets trade Jeff McNeil
This is tricky because McNeil still has value after reviving his 2024 season with a strong second half. But he’s being overpaid with two years and $31.5 million left on his four-year contract, so the Mets wouldn’t get much in return and would likely have to eat significant cash in any trade.
Still after Luisangel Acuna impressive late-season stint in Queens, it makes sense to see what he can do as a regular at second base, although such a move would also make it important to re-sign Jose Iglesias as insurance for Acuna and the versatility he offers, especially defensively, as a utility man.
7. Orioles re-sign Corbin Burnes
The new owner of the Orioles, David Rubensteinwould presumably change the club’s bargain approach to signing players Peter Angelosand this will be the first great test. After Baltimore’s disappointing showing in 2024 and some key pitching injuries, it is imperative that the O’s re-sign Burnes if they are serious about trying to pull off a big win in 2025.
6. Scott Boras will not hijack this season
To be clear, I wouldn’t bet the ranch on this. After all, Boras is never one to admit a mistake, but you’d certainly have to think he’ll be motivated to close deals faster than usual after four high-profile clients — Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt ChapmanAnd Cody Bellinger — remained unsigned last winter until spring training began, ultimately having to settle for short-term contracts instead of the mega-deals they expected.
As usual, he has some of the biggest names on this free agent market including Soto, Pete AlonsoBurnes, Alex Bregmanand Snell again.
In Soto’s case in particular, the handful of teams expected to make offers of $500 million and above will want an answer as soon as possible, as it will have a major impact on what else they do in free agency .
5. Mets re-sign Sean Manaea, sign Walker Buehler
They would certainly do more at the top of the pitching market if they don’t sign Soto, but I also feel like David Sterns would prefer to avoid the kind of long-term contracts with starting pitchers necessary to sign Burnes.
In this scenario, they could probably bring Manaea back on a three- or four-year deal, and I think that would be worth the gamble because, ahead of his age-33 season, he Chris Sales-like delivery that made him so dominant looks sustainable.
Buehler won’t come cheap after his strong finish in the postseason, but teams will be leery of multi-year offers after he pitched to a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts during his comeback season following his second Tommy John surgery. So maybe he would sign a two-year deal with an opt-out to rebuild his value. The Dodgers may only want him back on their terms after all their pitching injuries in recent years.
Stearns, who seems to have an eye for finding value in pitching, would undoubtedly add a few more starters on one-year deals (Matthew Boydmaybe?), but Kodai SengaManaea, Bühler, and David Peterson would be a strong top four.
4. Yankees go big on offense
In a scenario where Soto signs with the Mets (more on that later), the Yankees would certainly respond by spending significant money to bolster the offense, which I think would mean signing an outfielder. Anthony Santander and third baseman Alex Bregman.
Discard the expected development of Jasson Dominguez and even without Soto, the Yankees could have a deep, powerful lineup.
Santander hit 44 home runs for the Orioles last season, while Bregman, who won his first Gold Glove on Sunday, would give the Yankees an established third baseman, assuming Jazz Chisolm Jr. moves to second place to take over for the (again assumed) deceased Gleyber Torres.
One problem could be that the Yankees may not want Judge to play center field much longer, and while Dominguez could theoretically take over there, he looked shaky defensively after his September call-up.
All this leads to…
3. Yankees are going small at first base
Alonso and Christian Walker are power-hitting options that would give the Yankees some much-needed offense at the position, but I don’t know if they would be willing to lock themselves into long-term deals with first basemen in their 30s.
Especially if they are thinking about eventually moving Aaron Judge to first lighten his load defensively and help him avoid injuries as he gets deeper into his 30s.
With that in mind, I can see where they could try to maximize a platoon of, let’s say, for a season Ben Rice/Oswaldo Cabrera and free agent Carlos Santana. (I saw this mentioned somewhere as a suggestion, and if I could remember where I would give credit). Santana had a solid season for the Minnesota Twins, but he will also be 39 next year and ideally fits best in a platoon, as he beats lefties (.934 OPS, 12 HRs in 163 at-bats) and is still very good defensively – at Sunday he won his first Gold Glove. Rice and Cabrera, meanwhile, hit better against right-handed pitching, with Rice showing the potential for big power last year.
2.Pete Alonso signs with the Giants
This is largely based on whether the Mets get Soto. If they don’t, they’re probably willing to spend more money on Alonso, but even then, Stearns will likely have a pretty stiff cap on what he’ll pay.
So I’m putting him with the Giants, who had the second-lowest home run total in the Majors from the first base position, and who have been mostly unsuccessful in signing star free agents in recent years. They have a prime position at first base Bryce Eldridgewhich could be ready in another year, but they could move Alonso to DH at some point if necessary.
1. Mets sign Juan Soto
For all the OMG magic that made 2024 such a feel-good season, it’s time for Steve Cohen to increase his financial strength in a way that could put the Mets over the top, and that means making an offer to Soto Hal Steinbrenner will not match.
What that number is remains to be seen, but Soto will be worth it. He will have a transformative impact on the Mets’ offense, just like he did for the Yankees, whether Alonso is still around or not. Soto made it clear in the immediate aftermath of the Yankees’ crushing World Series loss that he is acting solely as a free agent, with no room for loyalty or discounts. It is up to Cohen to capitalize on that mentality.
