Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri hands over his keys to victory for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.
The Pick-up-and-Play of the week is… Jauan Jennings
Deebo Samuel is expected to miss a couple of weeks for the 49ers. San Francisco is also without Christian McCaffrey and rookie WR Ricky Pearsall, who is out due to a gunshot wound from which he is recovering. George Kittle’s status for Week 3 also looks questionable now, as he was on the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring injury.
That leaves the 49ers with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings as the only two locks in the passing game. Jennings is one of the best run-blocking receivers in the NFL, but he has also been a productive player when given opportunities in the passing game.
Jennings played over 50% of the 49er’s snaps in six games last season. He scored 10+ fantasy points in four of those six games. He’s a good prospect to pick up this week and play against the Rams’ 24th-ranked secondary according to PFF.
The dubious spot of the week belongs to… Mike Evans vs. DEN
Evans has had a solid start to his 11th NFL season. Through two games, Evans has converted a 23 percent target share on eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He has primarily worked on the outside, running 70 percent of his routes to the outside, according to PFF.
This usage on the outside is important to note, because this week he faces Patrick Surtain. Surtain has played 89% of his snaps on the outside through two weeks. So far this season, Surtain has allowed six catches for 70 yards in coverage. He has been able to shut down both DK Metcalf and George Pickens. This is a sketchy spot for Evans.
An interesting trend: Lions vs. slot receivers
The Lions have given the opposition the run to cover slot receivers so far this season. They’ve allowed 22 slot catches for 250-plus yards through two weeks, according to PFF. Last week, Chris Godwin caught six of seven slot targets for 100-plus yards and a touchdown.
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We can’t draw any conclusions yet, given that it’s only been two weeks since we’ve seen quality receivers like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, but it’s a trend worth keeping an eye on. In Week 3, the Lions play Cardinals slot receiver Greg Dortch. I don’t expect much from Dortch here, but they face Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 4 and CeeDee Lamb in Week 5. Those are key matchups to watch.
The best RB spot of the week goes to…Brian Robinson Jr. vs. CIN
Robinson’s role has been strong to start the season. He’s played 59 percent of the Commanders’ snaps and earned 74 percent of the backfield carries. In Week 2, Robinson totaled 136 yards on 18 touches. He broke five tackles in the game and currently ranks in the top 10 of the season in broken tackles, according to Player Profiler.
These broken tackle stats are important for his matchup this week. Robinson will be facing the Bengals, who have allowed 160 rushing yards per game this season. More importantly, the Bengals have struggled against tackles, allowing the sixth-most yards after contact this season according to NFL Pro. Despite Washington being a big underdog, expect an efficient game from Robinson.
Chris Godwin is trending up
Godwin is currently the No. 1 receiver in fantasy football. Through two games, he has produced 15 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns. He has already matched his touchdown total from last season.
We were promised that Godwin would have more slot usage this year, and that’s what we got. According to Dwain McFarland, Godwin has played 65% of his snaps in the slot this year. That number was just 32% in 2023. He’s turned that increased slot usage into 10 slot catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Godwin leads the NFL in each of those slot categories.
You might be tempted to sell him high now, and that’s not a bad idea. But I’d recommend holding on to Godwin unless you can get a Tier 1 player like Ja’Marr Chase or Saquon Barkley in return.
James Cook is trending up
Cook finished as a top-three fantasy prospect in Week 2 after scoring three touchdowns against the Dolphins on Thursday night. Cook played just 47% of the snaps in this game, but this needs some context. The Bills pulled Cook for the final two drives of the game due to the blowout. If you strip out those garbage-time drives, Cook would have handled an elite 79% of the backfield carries.
Since play-caller Joe Brady took over in November 2023, Cook is averaging 19.5 touches and 16.5 fantasy points per game. Both numbers would have ranked in the top 10 among all running backs last year. Through two weeks, Cook has produced games of 103 yards and 95 yards on 17 touches per game. He’s on the rise and is a top 10 back for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Jerome Ford is in a downtrend
In Week 1, Ford had 73% of the Browns snaps and 86% of the backfield carries. This led to a strong fantasy day of 15.9 points on 18 touches. Everything was looking good for Ford, including his Week 2 matchup against a Jaguars team that struggled with tackling in their first game.
But Week 2 was the worst-case scenario for Ford. His snaps dropped to 42% and he saw just 26% of the backfield carries. Veteran D’Onta Foreman led the backfield with 14 carries on 38% of the snaps. This was surprising considering Foreman saw just one snap in Week 1. However, he suffered a neck injury in training camp and may not be ready for a bigger role to start the season.
The good news for Ford is that he still played the majority of the Browns’ RB snaps in Week 2 and averaged over nine yards per carry. He’s a talented back, but if Foreman is going to be this involved going forward, it’s going to be tough to get Ford to start in fantasy.
Brock Bowers is the new elite fantasy TE
He already looks like one of the best TEs in the league. Bowers has been the best TE in college football at the highest level in the SEC the last three years. He has been elite at reading defenses and getting yards after the catch.
Bowers currently leads all fantasy TEs in points, EPA per play, and targets. His 25% target share is impressive, especially since he’s competing with Davante Adams for targets. But perhaps even more impressive is that Bowers has had so much success while running just 70% of the team’s routes.
I’m not sure how defenses can stop what he does because Bowers lines up everywhere. Defenses can’t just put their best player on him like they would in a receiver vs. cornerback matchup. Bowers moves off the line of scrimmage and slides into the slot 50% of the time while also moving outside 15% of the time. He’s extremely versatile and as legit as they come. Bowers is a top-five TE for me for the rest of the season.
The buying depth of the week is… Diontae Johnson
Now, I’m back to Diontae Johnson, with second-year QB Bryce Young just getting benched. I firmly believe Young was the biggest problem for this Panthers offense. It wasn’t the WRs, and certainly not the offensive line, which PFF ranks in the top five in pass protection after two games.
In Week 2, the Panthers went three-and-out on 55% of their drives, and only one drive lasted longer than six plays. The worst part? Bryce Young actually had time to throw in this game. But now we’re getting a grown-up in QB Andy Dalton, and he’s looked good the last few times we’ve seen him start for the Panthers and Saints.
But perhaps most importantly, he knows how to run an NFL offense. It’s worth thinking about: Is Dalton the best quarterback Johnson has played with in the last 4-5 years? It seems like a crazy question, but I think the answer is yes. I also think he’s great at getting open and earning targets.
I may be an idiot, but I’m buying Johnson now at a low price.
The top seller of the week is… JK Dobbins
Dobbins has over 130 rushing yards in each of his first two games. He currently leads the NFL with 266 rushing yards, and it doesn’t stop there, as Dobbins ranks No. 1 in rushing EPA and is eighth in completion percentage according to NFL Pro.
Obviously he’s been great; I can’t argue with that. The only problem is that he’s only had six cheat code opportunities in two weeks. The fantasy cheat codes for running backs are targets and red-zone touches. Dobbins doesn’t see strong usage in those areas, which doesn’t bode well for future success.
Dobbins is currently a red-hot acquisition who likely won’t finish the season as fantasy’s RB1. At this point, Dobbins is still sharing a backfield with Gus Edwards , and even if that doesn’t happen, Dobbins’ stock is likely the highest it will be all year. Why is that, you ask? Well, he’ll be facing the Steelers defense in Week 3.
Try to sell Dobbins dearly for someone like Chris Olave, if you can.
