The 2024 MLB Draft is just over a month away, with the first night taking place on Sunday, July 14 at the Cowtown Coliseum in the Fort Worth Stockyards in Texas, in conjunction with All-Star week.
If you talk to scouts around the league, it’s considered a below-average draft class in terms of depth. It’s also an odd design with plenty of talent in non-premium positions, as you’ll see in the mock-up below.
The top 10-12 players in the class had big springs and scouts are more optimistic about their futures than they might have been in the spring. A few high-ranking scouts told me they think there’s a chance for a “cleaner” first round, in which there are fewer surprise under-slot deals early on, because the reward afterward isn’t as great as in years past.
That said, there is always talent out there and it is up to the scouts to find them and the player development staff to develop them once they are drafted.
Now that we’re a month into it, here’s a mock draft 1.0, including the Mets’ picks…
1. Cleveland Guardians – 2B Travis Bazzana – Oregon State
Unless the Guardians are looking for a slot value saver, the expectation is that this pick will come down to Bazzana or Georgia’s Charlie Condon. There is a chance Bazzana comes cheaper than Condon and there is some positional security here.
2. Cincinnati Reds – 3B/OF Charlie Condon – Georgia
Condon put together a historic season in the SEC, slashing .446/.566/1.036 with 36 home runs in 57 games. He could easily go No. 1, but it would be surprising if he lasts longer than this pick for Cincinnati.
3. Colorado Rockies – RHP Chase Burns – Wake Forest
Burns is my best pitcher in the class, with a fastball that will touch triple digits with unique pitch stats and a plus slider. He improved his hitting throws in college, but his next step will be better control within the strike zone. Despite a fast and well-shaped fastball, he was hit more than necessary. If Burns can tighten up on a few things, he has top potential. Colorado’s choice could come down to Condon, Bazzana and Burns.
4. Oakland Athletics – 1B Nick Kurtz – Wake Forest
Kurtz entered the 2024 season as the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 overall. He got off to a slow start, but rebounded to post a 1.294 OPS with 22 home runs in 54 games. He could be a defensive first baseman.
5. Chicago White Sox – 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone – Florida
Caglianone, the Florida star, may have the best raw power in his class. He has lowered his swing-and-miss and chase rates this year. He also tops 90 mph on the radar gun on the mound, though scouts I talk to think he should only be a hitter in pro ball.
6. Kansas City Royals – LHP Hagen Smith – Arkansas
Hearing the Royals would love to have Burns, but would still be happy with Smith, who some consider the No. 1 college pitcher. He posted a 2.04 ERA in 84 innings and struckout 161 batters. If it’s not one of the college pitchers, I’ve heard they’re a spot considering one of the top two hitters in high school will soon be off the board.
7. St. Louis Cardinals – 2B JJ Wetherholt – West Virginia
Entering the season, Wetherholt was at the top of MLB Pipeline’s top prospects. He missed much of the season but came back looking like the Wetherholt everyone knew. A good potential value pick for St. Louis.
8. Los Angeles Angels – BY James Tibbs III – Florida State
Tibbs may be the prospect who has increased his value the most in this class. In the spring, he was in the conversation at the end of the first round and the second, but he posted an OPS of 1.310 with 28 home runs and 94 RBI and won the ACC Player of the Year. He’s probably a next-level left fielder, but has a decent left-handed swing and excellent batted ball data.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates – OF Braden Montgomery – Texas A&M
Montgomery certainly has top 4-5 pick potential. However, he suffered a brutal-looking lower leg injury during the Super Regionals. The official word on the injury isn’t out yet, but if he avoided significant ligament/tendon damage, I don’t believe his fall on draft day will be hasty. I have put him at the back of this list of college hitters for the time being until more clarity becomes available about his injury.
10. Washington Nationals – OF Konnor Griffin – Jackson Prep HS (MS)
Flip a coin here on Griffin vs. Bryce Rainer. The Nationals are a team that is usually chasing a win. The Gatorade National High School Player of the Year has the potential of five tools and already has a top team. He can play either shortstop or center field, but one scout I spoke to prefers him in the middle.
11. Detroit Tigers – SS Bryce Rainer – Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
High school’s other best bat won’t have to wait long. He has a projectable 6-foot-4, 195-pound frame and there’s a chance he outgrows shortstop and ends up at third base, but he should have plenty of bat for the spot.
12. Boston Red Sox – OF/SS Seaver King – Wake Forest
King transferred from Division II Wingate to one of the nation’s top programs in Wake Forest after hitting .424 in the Cape Cod League. He posted a .954 OPS for the Demon Deacons and possesses some of the best pure bat speed in the class. He can be too aggressive at times and needs to work on some plate discipline, but he makes his swings count. Defensively, he profiles best at short stop or in the middle.
13. San Francisco Giants – LHP Cam Caminiti – Saguaro HS (AZ)
Caminiti, the cousin of the former big leaguer Ken Caminiti, reclassified from the 2025 class to the 2024 draft. This will pay off as he is considered a near-certain first-round pick. His speed increased this spring, reaching 98 mph. He has work to do developing his changeup and figuring out his signature breaking ball, but this is a left-handed player with a high upside.
14. Chicago Cubs – RHP Trey Yesavage – Eastern Carolina
Yesavage is the clear No. 3 pitcher in college who could go a little higher. He defeated Burns in the elimination match at the Regionals. He has a strong four-pitch mix, with all of his pitches scoring above average. It would be surprising if he fell outside the top 15.
15. Seattle Mariners – 3B Cam Smith – Florida State
Solidly built with a 6-foot-4 frame and 220 pounds, Smith has made swing changes and lowered his swing-and-miss percentage year after year while maintaining some of the fastest exit velocities in his class. He is one of seven players with a contact rate of at least 80 percent, a 90th percentile exit velocity of at least 107 mph and a chase rate of 23.2 percent or less (Baseball America statistic). He has prospects as high as No. 12 at Boston, but should fit right in the teens.
16. Miami Marlins – 2B Christian Moore – Tennessee
Moore entered the season as the second-best Volunteer behind the draft Billy Amick, but he will probably precede Amick in July. He has an aggressive swing with 25 home run potential at the next level, but sometimes makes him chase more than you’d like. He’s probably a second baseman at the next level. I’ve heard it connect in the 15-23 range.
17. Milwaukee Brewers – OF Carson Benge – Oklahoma State
Benge is an athletic two-way player who won’t hit until the next level. He’s likely a right fielder with an above-average arm, has strong bat-to-ball skills and has strong exit velocities. One scout warned that some swing adjustments will be needed in pro ball, but he has the ingredients you want in an advanced college bat.
18. Tampa Bay Rays – RHP William Schmidt – Catholic HS (LA)
To some, Schmidt is the best high school student in the class. He has a projectable 6-foot, 180-pound frame with a fastball that hits 98 and a hammer of a curveball. The Rays have never been shy about taking high school prospects in the first round, so Schmidt fits in here.
19. New York Mets – VAN Vance Honeycutt – North Carolina
A little over a month after the draft, I heard that the Mets were mainly related to college bats. I can’t imagine there being a bat or arm available in high school to lure them to this spot. I wouldn’t rule out an Iowa swing right-handed Brody Brecht. The names I’ve heard most here are Honeycutt, Benge, Mississippi State outfielder Dakota Jordan, and the rising outfielder from Kentucky Ryan Waldschmidt.
Honeycutt had a big Super Regional weekend, sending the Tar Heels to Omaha for the College World Series. In a class that includes many college bats, it comes down to the flavor of ice cream for teams. He could go five spots earlier or five spots later. Offensively, he has 20/20 potential, but that comes with a 27 percent strikeout rate. For reference, anything above 25 percent is a major red flag for most teams. Some model-based teams won’t even look at him in the first round. Defensively speaking, he is perhaps the best midfielder in this class.
There are differences in what he could ultimately become, but as a No. 19 pick, taking a shot against a potential 20/20 player makes a lot of sense for the Mets.
