Simulation of the 2024 NBA Finals predicts high-scoring Celtics-Mavs series originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Celtics are four wins away from becoming the most successful franchise in NBA history. But raising Banner 18 won’t be easy.
After defeating the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics will face the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Finals.
The Mavs are led by two game-changing superstars in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but also boast an underrated supporting cast led by trade deadline pickups PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and rookie big man Dereck Lively II. Since Gafford’s first start in Dallas on March 7, only the Celtics have a better record than the Mavs (28-9).
That said, the Celtics will enter this series as heavy favorites after posting an NBA-best 64-18 record in the regular season and a 12-2 record this postseason. Big man Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play in Game 1 after missing the team’s previous 10 playoff games and should give Boston an immediate boost on both ends of the court.
So, how will this series play out? We asked our partners at Strat-O-Matic – who accurately predicted the Celtics’ regular season record down to the exact game – to simulate the 2024 NBA Finals, with detailed box scores and recaps for every game.
Here are the full game-by-game results of the simulation, followed by detailed player stats for the series:
NBA Finals 2024 Simulation: Game Results
Game 1: Celtics 135, Mon 127
Porzingis comes out firing in his first game action since April 29, hitting a pair of 3-pointers early in the first quarter to help Boston open a double-digit lead.
The Celtics extend their lead to as many as 17 points, but the Mavs come back behind a barrage of buckets from Doncic and Irving to take the lead early in the fourth quarter on a Derrick Jones Jr. 3-pointer.
Boston, however, puts the game on the line, scoring the final 14 points of the game – including a dagger Porzingi’s 3-pointer with 40 seconds left – to earn a Game 1 victory.
Porzingis finished with 21 points, while Tatum and Brown combined for 61 points (36 and 25, respectively) and survived brilliant performances from both Doncic (38 points, 15 rebounds and five assists) and Irving (31 points and eight assists).
Game 2: Celtics 128, Mon 124
Celtics fans will get some flashbacks from the early playoffs of Game 2 in this game, as the Mavs race to a 10-point lead midway through the second quarter. But Jrue Holiday helps the C’s settle the score with eight straight points near the end of the first half, and Derrick White’s 3-pointer helps Boston go into the break with a two-point lead.
The Celtics hold a two-point lead with less than five minutes remaining when Tatum converts layups on consecutive possessions to put his team up by six. Dallas doesn’t get closer than five until the final seconds, while Boston picks up another win and takes a 2-0 lead in the series.
Tatum (34 points) and Holiday (24 points) pace the Celtics, while Doncic (35) and Irving (31) are another two-man show for Dallas.
Game 3: Mavs 115, Celts 108
The Celtics hold their own early in Game 3 as the series goes to Dallas, taking a six-point lead into halftime. But the Mavs respond with a 38-point third quarter and add another 30 in the fourth, pulling off a 19-7 run with four minutes left that pushes their lead to as much as 13 points.
Boston has no answer for Doncic – who goes for a series-high 43 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists – while Irving scores 24 points. Brown is the Celtics’ leading scorer with 27 points and Porzingis adds 22, but Tatum is. limited to 21 points on just 14 shots.
Game 4: Celtics 118, Mavs 103
The Mavs jump out to a 12-point lead in the first quarter and look poised to tie the series at 2-2 heading back to Boston. But the Celtics respond with force, limiting Dallas to just 13 points in the second quarter and taking a double-digit lead of their own in the third quarter.
The Jays do their thing – 26 points from Brown and 24 from Tatum – and Derrick White comes out with 20 points on four made three-pointers, but it’s Boston’s defense that wins this game. Doncic makes just 10 of 25 shots for a series low of 26 points and scores three goals as the Celtics take a decisive 3-1 series lead with a chance to secure Banner 18 in Boston.
Game 5: Celtics 123, Mavs 103
Mission accomplished.
The Mavs keep it close for two quarters before the Celtics send TD Garden into a frenzy with a 14-0 run late in the third, giving them a 94-77 lead. Boston’s defense leads the charge again, limiting Dallas to just 38 points in the second half while allowing a total of 20 Mav’s turnover.
On the offensive side, Brown puts up 31 points on 60 percent shooting (12 of 20), while Tatum (27), White (23) and Porzingis (21) all post top 20 points in a fitting end to a dominant season for the Celtics.
Two years after watching the Golden State Warriors celebrate the 2022 championship on their home floor, the C’s get some sweet redemption and kick off a Garden Party by securing their 18th NBA record-tying 18th season in franchise history.
Check out the simulation’s full player stats below.
2024 NBA Finals Simulation: Player Stats
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