After losing to San Francisco in the playoffs three of the past five seasons, the Green Bay Packers wouldn’t mind if the 49ers were left out of the postseason entirely.
The Packers (7-3) could hurt San Francisco’s playoff hopes on Sunday by beating the 49ers at Lambeau Field. San Francisco (5-5) fell to .500 after a home loss to the Seattle Seahawksalthough the 49ers remain just one game behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West.
“I think we’re motivated to keep winning more than anything,” Packers center Josh Myers said. “Obviously they knocked us out big time. There’s an extra motivation behind it, but right now we’re just trying to get wins.”
Green Bay is third in the NFC North and two games behind the Detroit Lions, but the Packers appear on track to at least earn a wild-card playoff berth. History suggests that their path to a potential Super Bowl would become much clearer if the 49ers don’t stand in their way.
The 49ers trailed 21-14 in the fourth quarter before that rallied last year to beat the Packers 24-21 in the divisional playoffs on Christian McCaffrey’s 6-yard touchdown run with 1:07 left. Now it’s the 49ers who are struggling to protect late leads, having squandered fourth-quarter advantages in three games against division opponents.
“You could look at, ‘Hey, we’re three possessions away from being 8-2,’ but you can’t really live like that,” 49ers tight end George Kittle said. “Those are the mistakes we made being 5-5. It’s not exactly where we want to be. It’s frustrating. The nice thing is we still have seven games left to play Niners football and take advantage of those opportunities.”
Green Bay’s recent history of frustration in the playoffs against the 49ers also includes one 13-10 loss at Lambeau Field in the 2021 divisional playoffs and a 37-20 loss on the road in the 2019 NFC Championship Game.
Even the Packers who weren’t there during last season’s playoff loss realize what this game means.
“I think one of the first meetings I was here we had a conversation about the Niners loss,” said Green Bay safety Xavier McKinney, who joined the Packers this season. “So I understand how important it is, and we all do.”
Both teams need to figure out how to convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns.
The 49ers score touchdowns on just 48.8% of their drives inside an opponent’s 20-yard line, ranking 27th in the NFL. The Packers are slightly worse in that regard, scoring touchdowns on 48.7% of their red zone possessions, ranking 28th.
In their 20-19 win at Chicago on Sunday, Green Bay cruised to the Bears 5 without scoring in two separate series.
Kittle expects to play Sunday after missing the Seahawks game with a hamstring injury, but the status of four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa is uncertain after he hurt his left hip and oblique in that game.
Seattle scored both TDs after Bosa left with an injury in the third quarter and averaged 2.7 additional yards per play after being injured.
Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander did not play in the second half of the Bears game because of a knee injury that also prevented him from playing in the Nov. 3 loss to Detroit.
Green Bay’s defense enjoyed turnovers for the first part of the season, but hasn’t been as effective at getting those takeaways lately.
The Packers have scored 19 points – already exceeding their 2023 total – but have not forced a turnover in their last two games.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has not brought McCaffrey back into the lineup in his return after missing the first eight games due to Achilles tendonitis. McCaffrey has played 91% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps over the past two weeks.
Jordan Mason, who rushed for 685 yards in McCaffrey’s absence, has been on offense just five times in the last two games. Shanahan said he would like to give Mason more opportunities, but it is difficult to take McCaffrey off the field.
Green Bay nearly lost to the Bears because of their third-down struggles on both sides of the ball. The Packers were 1 of 5 on third down, while the Bears were 9 of 16.
The Packers defense could have a hard time solving that problem against San Francisco, which has converted a league-high 45.4% of its third-down situations.
