Welcome to a special pre-holiday edition of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter with the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Today we look back at the most important storylines that defined the year. We’re off for the rest of the week, but we’ll be back in your inbox next Monday with a taste of the dynamics that will shape 2025.
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5 storylines that defined 2024
By Mark Murray
With the year drawing to a close, President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House, President Joe Biden’s departure and a new Congress beginning next month, here’s a look at the top political storylines that shaped 2024 – in descending order .
5. Trump’s easy path to the Republican nomination. It’s important to remember that at the start of the 2024 cycle, this was not a guarantee that Trump would be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was close to Trump in early polls; Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., had early momentum and money; and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley had the makings of a formidable challenger.
But in the end, Trump won every Republican nominating contest — with the exception of Vermont and Washington, DC
Even after his 2020 defeat, the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, and the party’s disappointing performance in the 2022 midterm elections, Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican Party was clearly visible in the pre-primary polls, which showed that the half of Republican voters or more wanted him. to continue as leader of the party.
4. Trump’s legal problems disappeared like snow in the sun. In 2024, the activities on the campaign trail and the drama in the courtroom were on a split screen.
Trump faced four separate charges and was ultimately convicted of 34 crimes in the hush money case. Each had to represent one of the defining moments of the election.
But politically, they largely served only to help Trump further rally the Republican base around him. And many of the cases fell after Trump was able to delay proceedings and sentencing, and after he won in November.
3. The presidential debate that changed everything. Heading into the June debate — the first general election showdown in history — many voters already had concerns about President Joe Biden’s age and fitness to serve another term.
And the debate only confirmed those concerns, as he regularly stumbled over his words and appeared weak on stage.
The action immediately set off Democratic alarm bells. But Biden vowed to stay in the race even as calls from his own party to step aside grew louder. He quit a month later.
2. Harris became more popular than Biden (but not significantly more popular than Trump). Immediately after Biden’s departure, the Democratic Party rallied around Vice President Kamala Harris, who was enjoying a political honeymoon.
In the last NBC News poll before the election, Harris had a favorable rating of 43% positive, 50% negative (-7 net rating) – significantly higher than Biden’s rating of 35% positive, 52% negative (-17).
But Harris’ numbers were not far off Trump’s: 42% positive, 51% negative (-9).
1. Concerns about inflation and the economy have doomed Democrats. In the end it was the economy, stupid.
Despite strong job creation and inflation cooling to its lowest level since 2021, most American voters were not happy with the economy or Biden’s handling of it.
Two-thirds said their family’s income lagged behind their cost of living, and only 25% of voters said Biden’s policies helped their family (compared to 44% who said that about Trump when he was president), according to polls from NBC News.
And according to the NBC News Exit Poll, 32% of voters said the economy was their most important issue — and Trump defeated Harris among those voters by 81% to 18%.
Why 2024 was the ultimate ‘what if’ election
By Chuck Todd
There are so many holiday traditions in Washington: congressional negotiations that take too long, crowded parties, inhumane traffic around the lighting of the national Christmas tree.
But one holiday tradition we look forward to is our annual “What If” series of alternate history episodes on the Chuck ToddCast. Every year we ask our listeners to share their favorite ideas about possible twists in history that could have changed everything about politics.
This year, our listeners asked about all the other ways the 2024 election could have played out. They also asked questions about Donald Trump (What if Trump bought the Buffalo Bills in 2014?), American history (What if George Washington ran for a third term?), and much more. We had questions about Jeb Bush and Ross Perot, about the Gulf War and the Cold War… someone even shared a smart question about the Democrats’ disastrous 2020 Iowa caucuses.
Asking these questions is about more than just scratching the surface, but about exploring how the hard certainties of our world could have been fundamentally different, and what that would have said about our country, our history, and ourselves.
We’re kicking off this year’s series with one of my favorite alternative history experts, Jonathan Martin of Politico, to talk about what other twists we might have seen in the 2024 election. You might think that an election year like 2024, with so many unexpected developments, anyone’s curiosity would be satisfied if they wondered, “What if?” – but in a year that could have been its own alternate history, the possibilities are endless.
Listen here →
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
