The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is dominating the 2024 debate, but control of both chambers of Congress is also up for grabs — and a series of fluid races could deliver surprises on election night.
These sleeper races could determine which party wins a majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate, which will have a substantial impact on the next president’s agenda. They will be determined by a mix of factors, including election turnout and whether the candidates have a unique ability to defy the broader political winds.
Here are nine congressional races where one party should be clearly favored but appears to have a fight on its hands.
Texas Senate: Cruz fights to hold on
Democrats need a miracle to maintain control of the Senate, and Texas may be their best chance to do so. Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is giving polarizing Republican Sen. Ted Cruz a run for his money, portraying him as a do-nothing extremist.
Cruz has blasted Allred as too liberal for Texas by highlighting issues like transgender rights and energy production. The incumbent president is still favored in the Republican Party stronghold, although some surveys show his lead over Allred is within the margin of error.
Cruz has sounded the alarm, pleading with conservative donors to send him more money to fend off the attack from Allred and his Democratic allies. There’s even more intrigue now that Cruz underperformed in his last Senate race in 2018, defeating former Democratic Rep. Beating Beto O’Rourke by less than 3 points.
Nebraska Senate: Populist upstart scares Republican Party
This race was never intended to appear on the radar. But Dan Osborn – a 48-year-old mechanic, union leader and Navy veteran – has made a mark with his independent career as a populist outsider.
Osborn has substantially outpaced two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer and launched buzzy ads promising to shake up the status quo. In one ad, he says the Senate is made up of “millionaires controlled by billionaires” and labels Fischer a career politician who fails to reach Nebraska and only enriches himself in Congress.
High-quality statewide polls are rare, but available surveys show Osborn narrowly leading in some states and Fischer leading in others. Fischer remains the favorite in this ruby state, but what should have been a layup for her is now a real battle. Republicans have sent in the cavalry and poured millions into tarnishing Osborn as a left-wing Trojan horse that would wrest control of the Senate from the Republican Party. Osborn says he will not consult with either party if elected.
Maryland Senate: Can Hogan Defy Gravity?
Republican Larry Hogan won two races for governor of Maryland in 2014 and 2018, defying gravity in the deep blue state. Now he’s attempting a more challenging task: becoming the first Republican to win a seat in the Maryland Senate since 1980.
Hogan is a heavy underdog in a state that Joe Biden won by a whopping 33 points in 2020, where a focus on federal issues and growing party polarization are making things difficult for him.
He is trying to follow the moderate image that served him well in his races for governor. His rival Angela Alsobrooks, a first-time federal candidate and former Prince George’s County executive, is reminding voters of Hogan’s past anti-abortion views and emphasizing the stakes for the party’s control of the Senate.
Polls show Hogan dramatically outperforming Trump in Maryland, but still trailing Alsobrooks.
Florida Senate: Can Democrats Impeach Rick Scott?
Florida is quickly disappearing from the map for Democrats, and Trump is widely expected to carry it at the presidential level. But in the party’s quest for an upset victory on a tough Senate map, some Democrats are holding out hope they can take down Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.
Scott, a former governor, has shown an uncanny ability to deliver statewide victories by the narrowest of margins in Florida, including during the red waves of 2010 and 2014 and the blue wave of 2018.
His rival, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D-Fla., has largely focused on reproductive rights. Democrats hope that some of Scott’s far-right views will alienate moderates, and that a ballot measure to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution will help boost turnout on their side. Still, he remains the favorite.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Former Freedom Caucus leader faces serious threat
This race has all the elements of a shocker in the making, with Rep. Scott Perry, a far-right incumbent in a moderately Republican district, facing the fight of his political career against Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former TV news anchor who is well known in the area.
Stelson has stalked Perry by raking in eye-watering sums of money and portraying the former chairman of the right-wing Freedom Caucus as someone out of touch with the district. Republicans are spending money to protect Perry, and he has responded by reversing some of his controversial positions, such as approving cuts to Social Security benefits.
The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter recently relabeled this previously Republican Party-centric race as a “toss-up.”
Virginia’s 2nd District: An early indicator of how Republicans are holding up
First-term Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., is facing a challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal after a redrawn and more Republican-friendly district helped her defeat a Democratic incumbent by about 3 points in 2022.
Virginia will be one of the first states on the East Coast to close polls on election night, so the results in this district will be seen as a bellwether for whether Republicans hold on in the kind of districts they need to maintain the elections. Chamber majority. If the Democrats flip it, that means they’re likely on their way to a good night.
Wisconsin’s 3rd District: A controversial Republican Party freshman is trying to hold on
Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden made plenty of headlines during his first two years in Washington, between hurling obscenities at the pages of the Senate and heckling Biden during his State of the Union address.
He is favored in a red-leaning district previously held by centrist Democratic Rep. Ron Child. But some Democrats see a tantalizing opportunity to convince enough voters to split their tickets and stir unrest. Democrat Rebecca Cooke is trying to do that by positioning herself as a moderate and acceptable alternative in the district.
Texas’ 34th District: A test of whether Latinos are drifting toward the GOP
In a year of shifting coalitions, this heavily Latino district highlights a dynamic that could shape the 2024 elections. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez wants to hold out against Mayra Flores, a Mexican-born millennial who has promoted far-right rhetoric and tried to channel opposition to transgender rights.
Gonzalez is favored in this Democratic-friendly district, but surveys show Trump could make gains among Latino voters. The size of these gains, and whether the district makes sense to be represented by a MAGA-oriented Latina, could potentially cause a shock.
California’s 47th District: Republicans eyeing an open seat in Newport Beach
Two-term state representative Katie Porter left this Orange County district to launch an unsuccessful run for Senate. The Republican candidate is Scott Baugh, a former California state lawmaker and Orange County GOP chairman, who lost to Porter by less than 4 points in 2022. The Democrat is Senator Dave Min, who made headlines early in his bid by being cited for driving while intoxicated. to ride.
California is emerging as a bright spot for Democrats in the House of Representatives this cycle. If the Republican Party wants to limit their gains, this Newport Beach-area district — a former Republican stronghold that trended blue in the Trump era — may be their best chance to flip a district.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
