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Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to further increase her lead over Donald Trump in the coming days.
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If history is correct, Harris should get a small raise from Congress.
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But Trump could easily erase her new lead.
Democrats are basking in their joy after a four-day party in Chicago. Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t content with just the good vibes.
“Listen, we’ve got 75 days to go,” Harris told reporters as she left the United Center Thursday night after her rousing acceptance speech. “Maybe for better or for worse, that’s who I am. That was good, now we’ve got to move on.”
Party leaders have repeatedly insisted throughout the week that despite all the positivity within the party, tougher times are ahead.
“Kamala Harris had a spectacular week, capping off a remarkable month,” former senior Obama White House adviser David Axelrod wrote on X. “But this is a deeply divided country, and the race will now become a fierce battle for every inch of territory in the swing states.”
On Friday, Trump tried to win back some attention by touting the support of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy’s poll numbers have been falling over the summer, but Trump is hoping that in a potentially extremely close race, the well-known vaccine skeptic’s supporters will push him over the edge in key states.
“This is good news for President Trump and his campaign, plain and simple,” Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a campaign statement.
Kennedy has pledged to try to remove his name from the ballot in 10 swing states, though it remains uncertain whether he’ll be able to pull that off even with the effort. As election law expert Derek T. Muller noted on X, Wisconsin only removes a candidate’s name if they die — meaning a kind of zombie candidacy could persist.
Both major candidates are expected to return to the campaign trail in the coming days, ahead of their first debate on Sept. 10 in Philadelphia. It will be the first time Harris has met Harris and the first debate since President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in June changed the race.
Republicans hope the arrival of debates will force Harris to confront her record. Harris has moved to the center on key issues like health care and fracking, trying to move beyond the progressive policy positions she took during her 2020 Democratic primary campaign.
Trump’s campaign has tried to lure Harris into an interview, which would likely further probe her shifting positions. Yet she has so far focused on campaigning across the country — enjoying the free media attention her packed rallies generate.
If history holds, Harris’ momentum could extend even further. Candidates have traditionally gotten a post-convention boost in polls. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Harris holds a slim 1.5 percentage point lead in national polls. It’s a big change from Biden’s ongoing struggles, but far from an insurmountable lead. In 1988, then-Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis held a 17-point lead in late July before Vice President George H.W. Bush overtook him to win the election.
Trump’s advisers have tried to warn that Harris would rise in the polls, calling this period her “honeymoon.” But so far, Trump has struggled to attack her consistently. He has fallen further back into old form, undermining his message by claiming she is not really black and by feuding with fellow Republicans. On Thursday night, Trump tried to tamp down his feud with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, perhaps moving beyond a renewed feud that threatened to derail his chances in a key state.
The former president has also shaken up his campaign leadership, bringing back former 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski to the official ranks. Trump wants to find the magic that fueled his surprise 2016 election, but it’s unclear how successful that will be if he continues to veer from his message.
One of Harris’ biggest concerns is that Trump is still ahead on metrics that are often fundamental to the race. Biden remains widely unpopular, with a Gallup poll showing 73% of people dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
There are some signs that Harris has eroded Trump’s strength on economic issues, but a recent ABC News-Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that he still held a 9-point lead over Harris when voters were asked who they trusted more to handle it. Trump also held a 10-point lead on immigration. The same poll found that voters viewed Harris much more favorably than Trump.
It’s also worth noting that, given the large number of Americans who vote before Election Day, neither campaign can wait until Nov. 5 to peak. Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important swing state, begins early voting on Sept. 16, less than a week after the first debate.
Read the original article on Business Insider
