Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Sit Decisions: Play Carson Steele and Cam Akers

Quarterback

Start: Derek Carr, Saints

Carr will continue to get away with it until morale improves.

Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is pushing all the easy buttons on offense, and it’s working wonders for his veteran quarterback. Carr ranks first in EPA per dropback and has allowed the Saints the fourth-most points through a two-week period in NFL history. The total in his matchup with the Eagles has been blown from 45 open to 49.5, and the spread has swung from +3 to -3 in the Saints’ favor.

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Start: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

The Ravens defense currently ranks 26th in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed. Kansas City makes up half of their opponents, so we should expect them to improve as the season goes on. However, they also gave up 276 yards and a score to Gardner Minshew. Most importantly, they have had the second-highest pass rate above expectation this year. The Cowboys, in turn, have the 12th-highest pass rate above expectation through two weeks. Teams have attacked Baltimore through the air, and the Cowboys are looking to play that type of football game. Their matchup with the Ravens has a total of 48 points, the third-highest of the week. This is the right spot for Prescott.

Seat: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

The Jaguars don’t want to score points. They rank 21st in EPA per rush attempt on first and second down, give up .15 points per carry, and are ninth in EPA per dropback on early downs. Lawrence gives them .19 points per dropback on first and second down. Despite this, the Jags are the most run-heavy team in neutral situations.

Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor aren’t calling plays with the scoreboard in mind. That relegates Lawrence to the middle of the QB2 ranks until something changes.

Seat: Kirk Cousins, Falcons

And speaking of teams that aren’t so much about scoring points: the Falcons.

Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson apparently used his ground game to cover up Kirk Cousins ​​in Week 1. Cousins ​​failed the eye test, giving Robinson an excuse to take the air out of the ball. Cousins ​​played much better in Week 2, and the Falcons still recorded a -9 percent PROE. Without any rushing production to speak of, Cousins ​​will need a lot of passing volume to reach his fantasy ceiling. He hasn’t come close to that yet.

Walk back

Start: Cam Akers, Texans

Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are not expected to play this week. Neither back practiced Friday morning. Akers, who would be next in line if both backs are ruled out, seemed like a good fit for Bobby Slowik’s schedule during the preseason. He earned PFF’s No. 9 rushing grade and No. 2 overall grade among running backs in exhibition games. If Akers sees any work in a Houston offense that holds a team-high 24.25 this week, he’s clearly an RB2.

Start: Carson Steele, Chiefs

The Chiefs are without Isiah Pacheco for an extended period due to a fractured fibula. They are also without Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was placed on the NFI list before the start of the season. That leaves them with Steele and Samaje Perine. Steele was billed as a fullback at times during the offseason, but saw most of his preseason reps as a running back. He rushed for 87 yards and two touchdowns on 11 attempts. Steele led all backs with 7.4 yards after contact per carry. Steele is swinging for the fences this week, but that’s enough to put him on the RB2/3 border.

Seat: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers

The return of Andy Dalton to the lineup will help all of the Panthers players get better numbers, but the offense hasn’t been Hubbard’s only problem. He’s splitting the load with Miles Sanders much more evenly than we expected at the start of the season. Hubbard has 16 carries so far, compared to Sanders’ 12. Sanders has also held him to a target standstill with four apiece. His 1A usage isn’t enough to go around, even with Dalton improving the offense’s overall outlook.

Seat: D’Andre Swift, Bears

Good matchup or not, Swift is a fadeaway until he shows us some efficiency. He currently ranks dead last in the NFL in Next Gen’s passing percentage. Only 18 percent of his carries have yielded more yards than expected. He’s averaging -2.4 yards per attempt above expected. Now, his team is a visiting underdog. It’s unclear whether Swift can even capitalize on a juicy matchup at this point in his career.

Wide receiver

Starts: Diontae Johnson, Panthers

For Diontae, having Dalton take over should be enough to get him back on the fantasy radar. Johnson leads the Panthers in target share and target rate, both of which sit at 23 percent. He also saw more than half of the team’s air yards in Week 2. Dalton averaged a disappointing 6.2 yards per attempt in two starts last year. He fared better with the Saints in 2022, averaging 7.6 YPA. Even if we only get Darnold’s Panthers figure, it would be a notable improvement over Young’s 4.4 YPA through two games.

Start: Chris Olave, Saints

We’re going to have a big game from Olave soon. He earned a 46 percent target share and 50 percent of the Saints’ air yards in Week 2. Olave was also the first to read a team-high five throws from Derek Carr. PFF gave him their highest receiving grade last week. It all came to just 81 yards, despite the Saints scoring over 40 again. Olave can’t stay good at the football on an incredible offense without scoring fantasy points. Something has to give, and I’m betting it comes in the form of an explosive Week 3 for Olave.

Seat: Michael Pittman, Colts

Pittman still gets a lot of attention as part of the Colts’ passing attack, but the targets he earns aren’t the passes that Anthony Richardson can consistently catch. Of Pittman’s 14 targets, six have come from zero to nine yards downfield. Another six have come from 10 to 19 yards down range. He’s caught one pass at each depth. Richardson is PFF’s 30th-ranked passer on intermediate throws and is 24th in passing grade on short throws. The lack of connection between the two drops Pittman into the WR3 ranks.

Seat: Jakobi Meyers, Raiders

It’s Brock Bowers’ world, and we all live in it. Bowers ranks third among tight ends in target share and fourth in air yards share. The rookie tight end who immediately stepped into a high-usage role has all but ended Meyers’ run as a fantasy WR3. Meyers has a 12 percent target share and has been targeted on 11 percent of his routes. There’s not a lot of value to be had from Gardner Minshew’s No. 3 pass-catcher.

Tight end

Start: Mark Andrews, Ravens

The Chiefs used defensive means to stop Andrews in Week 1, and it worked. He was targeted on five percent of his routes and earned a dismal six percent target share. Those numbers jumped to 19 percent and 17 percent in Week 2. The Ravens made him a bigger part of the game plan against Las Vegas, with a first-read target share of 19 percent compared to just 10 percent against Kansas City. Andrews may not be the top-tier tight end he was in previous seasons, but last week showed he can still earn low-end TE1 volume.

Starts: Brenton Strange, Jaguars

Strange is a desperate play who flew under the radar on most waiver wires. He’s ranked just 2 percent in Yahoo leagues despite finishing Week 2 as the PPR TE9, taking over for Evan Engram after Engram suffered a hamstring injury in warmups. Strange ran a route on 75 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks. He earned a 25 percent target share and saw 32 percent of the team’s air yards. He’s nothing more than a TE2 in his second start of the year, but Strange is one of the best additions at tight end right now.

Seat: Dalton Kincaid, Bills

In Week 1, Kincaid was targeted just once and earned five air yards on that target. He improved his target share dramatically in Week 2 with four looks in the passing game. He probably saw more air yards too… right? Nope. He had a -2 aDOT. Kincaid doesn’t see the ball often and when he does, it’s on empty calorie looks.

Seats: Dallas Goedert, Eagles

The Eagles just aren’t that interested in using Goedert, even with AJ Brown sidelined. Last year, Goedert saw 21 percent of Philly’s first-read targets and was targeted on 19 percent of his routes. He has a 16 percent first-read target share and a 12 percent target rate this season. Devonta Smith seems like a seamless fit for a WR1 role until Brown returns, leaving Goedert in the TE2 ranks.