For the sake of argument, let’s say you go to sleep one night and wake up the next morning in 1977. It doesn’t take long before you discover that you’ve tumbled through some kind of rift in the space-time continuum; For starters, it looks like Gramma is still alive, and she’s knitting a sweater with Rocky Bleier’s face on it. The kids on the school bus are all playing their portable Mattel Electronic Football games and the Health-Ed teacher spends a lot of the time before lunch debating the dangers of Quaaludes. There’s silliness in the air, except on the playing field, where the NFL is churning out a bone-wrecking 287.8 rushing yards per game.
And then the alarm on your iPhone wakes you up, because there is no such thing as time travel. But as you hunker down for the Chargers-Steelers game, you think you may have accidentally taken part of the dream world into 2024. This is ten feet and a cloud of dust, gutbucket football, and as you scroll through the regional feeds, it becomes clear that the pass-happy offensive schemes that have ruled the NFL for the past two decades have fallen out of favor.
In their first three games under Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert and the Chargers have nearly let the air out of the ball. LA is currently averaging just 125.7 air yards per game, which represents a whopping 59% drop from 308.7 a year ago. While there are plenty of caveats (Harbaugh is a running fan, and Herbert has been thin since suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 2), the change in tactics is still quite notable. This time last season, the Chargers could lay claim to the NFL’s third-most productive passing attack, while this year’s Bolts are now on the opposite end of the spectrum at No. 31.
And it’s not just a Harbaugh/Herbert thing. At 201.2 passing yards per game, the league has accumulated the least frequent flyer miles since 2003 (200.4), as air gains are down 9% compared to the comparable trajectory in 2023. Production is also, predictably, up the decrease; the NFL average of 1.2 passing touchdowns per game is the lowest since 1993.
While at least one offensive coordinator has had to tear up the playbook in the wake of a catastrophic injury to his quarterback, Miami will have to make do without the services of $212.4 million man Tua Tagovailoa through Oct. 20 after his last concussion. – some healthy signal callers have seen their passing stats shrink in 2024. The ball simply doesn’t travel far before hitting the receiver’s hands; So far, Patrick Mahomes has seen his average throw depth shrink to 5.2 yards per throw, well short of last year’s 6.5 yards and significantly lower than his bomb-away rookie campaign (9.1).
If Mahomes’ shorter routes are a function of his lack of deep threats (Tyreek Hill is long gone and Travis Kelce is about to blow out 35 birthday candles), the State Farm pitcher has had to rely increasingly on the short pass because the defense continues to show itself. him two-high cover. And while Mahomes’ quick release amounts to a death of 1,000 cuts for the eleven guys on the other side of the line of scrimmage, the dink-and-dunk approach has eaten into his total winnings; the defending Super Bowls champion is averaging 211.7 yards in the air, up from 275.7 yards a year ago.
Other dropouts include the Patriots, who are now last in the league with just 102 yards per game, down from 235.7, and the Jaguars, who are limited to 160.7 yards per game through the air, down from 240. 7 yards a year ago. period.
Among the few QBs who have managed to buck the trend are Buffalo’s mad bomber Josh Allen and Dallas’ Dak Prescott. Unfortunately for the Cowboys and their legion of fans, Dak’s gaudy passing stats (he’s already amassed an NFL-best 851 yards) are a matter of necessity; Because Dallas can’t run the ball — a paltry average of 73.7 yards per game is the third-worst rushing attack in the NFL — he has no choice but to let it rip.
While the passing game’s explosive growth has coincided with the NFL’s massive gains in TV broadcasts in recent years, this season’s early defensive suppression has not negatively impacted the league’s ratings thus far. Thanks to Monday night’s dual billing on ABC and ESPN, NFL games are averaging 18.6 million viewers per broadcast, good for the highest level in nine years. If the high-octane antics are in short supply, fans will be compensated with a crowd-pleasing run of September football, powered by three straight appearances from the Chiefs.
So far, Mahomes & Co. served 27.4 million impressions per outing; By comparison, the average primetime entertainment series attracted 3.38 million viewers per episode in 2023-2024.
Until offensive coordinators find a way to combat Cover 2, fans may want to curb their appetite for the dogfights that have characterized the past two decades of NFL Sundays. That said, the stuttering passing game is now almost impossible to overlook, and the result is splashed all over the scoreboard. With just three weeks left, NFL defenses are now giving up a paltry 21.2 points per game, down 6% from 22.5 a year ago and another 10% from 23.6 points just three years ago.
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