No run support for Wheeler, Phillies cold on offense in final weekend originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
WASHINGTON – For the second time in four years, Zack Wheeler dominated in September to cap off a Cy Young-caliber season.
And for the second time in four years, he is in an extremely tight race for the prize that all starters covet.
The Phillies could have made it easier for him with run support in his final start Saturday, but they were stifled in seven of nine innings by Mackenzie Gore and the Nationals’ bullpen in a 6-3 loss.
The Phillies are outscored 15-4 in back-to-back losses in DC after earning a playoff bye at home on Wednesday. They are now locked into the 2-seed. The Dodgers will have home field advantage in the NLCS if they advance. The Phils are better off than the other five National League teams.
The Phillies’ NLDS opponent is the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets or Braves. They can’t face the Padres, who are locked in the 4 seed.
“We’d like to have home field advantage, but it’s not the end of the world,” Wheeler said. “We still have a little bit of home field advantage and we just have to get there. We’ll worry about that later.”
Wheeler was his typical overpowering self, striking out 11 and driving until rookie James Wood’s two-run, opposing homer in the bottom of the sixth. The pitch count was manageable and he and Rob Thomson had discussed a few days in advance about allowing Wheeler to reach 200 innings as long as he didn’t risk injury in the process. If it’s not a stressful outing, Sunday should be the same with Aaron Nola, who is 5⅔ short.
Based on traditional metrics, workload, advanced metrics and his consistent excellence in the highest-pressure starts of his career, Wheeler has been the best pitcher in baseball since 2020, his first year with the Phillies. Still, there is a possibility that this era’s 1A doesn’t win a Cy Young due to circumstances beyond its control. Pitchers like Wheeler make you think it’s easy, but staying healthy and doing what he’s done year after year since 2020 is nothing to take for granted.
Wheeler finished 16-8 with a 2.57 ERA, struck out 224 and allowed the fewest hits in the league.
“I just told him it’s been a great year,” Thomson said when asked about the conversation with Wheeler when he removed him right after 200 innings. “That’s Cy Young worthy to me.”
In 2021, Wheeler (141 voting points) finished just behind Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (151) in the Cy Young race. Wheeler pitched 46⅓ more innings, the equivalent of eight more starts for Burnes. It was a polarizing result that only looks worse in retrospect.
This time it’s Chris Sale. The 35-year-old left-hander leads the league in wins (18-3), ERA (2.38) and strikeouts (225) and has the lowest home run percentage in baseball. He also has the story on his side: the aging, oft-injured former top player who surprisingly bounced back to the top almost a decade after Cy Young almost missed himself.
“I did my best,” Wheeler said. “Chris also had a very good year and he certainly deserves that. It’s pretty cool to see him come back from missing the last four years or whatever it was. Good for him and happy to see him back with Chris Sale.
“It’s the goal – these days it’s get 200 innings, 200 strikeouts, get some wins, try to help the team as best as I can. I didn’t feel as consistent as the numbers probably look, but I got the job done and I’m happy with it.”
Wheeler has the advantage over Sale in WHIP (0.96 to 1.01), opponent batting average (.192 to .216) and innings pitched (200 to 177⅔).
He pitched to a 1.89 ERA over his last 11 starts to keep pace. Those 11 starts represent the longest streak in Phillies history of two runs or fewer. At this point, their ERAs are close enough that Wheeler’s innings advantage could even out the difference in the minds of some voters.
Wheeler had a 1.55 ERA in nine starts against teams in the National League playoff field.
He held right-handed hitters to the second-lowest OPS (.439) in the majors in the last 50 years, or as long as platoon splits have been tracked.
It was a historically good season for Wheeler, his best as a Phillie. He was signed in March to a three-year, $126 million contract spanning 2025-2027 — the fourth-most annual total in baseball history behind Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. He added a splitter to his arsenal and spoke during spring training about his hopes that the field would take him to an even higher level. He mentioned the Cy Young award as his target.
And then he went out and exceeded expectations through 32 starts.
He said he didn’t feel as consistent as the numbers, but the numbers are what they are. Did this feel like the best season of his career?
“If I step back and look at it, probably yes,” he said. “I felt a little more dominant in ’21, but I’m not really worried about that now.”
Wheeler will throw Game 1 of the NLDS at Citizens Bank Park for the Phillies, regardless of the opponent. He will also be able to throw a theoretical Game 5 on five days’ rest. It’s a big deal for the Phillies to know they’ll start him 40% of their games in a round.
Wheeler picked up his eighth strikeout to start the bottom of the fifth Saturday and had allowed just one hit and no runs to that point. Luis Garcia then singled up the middle and Wood hit a long fly ball that went just over the wall to left for a two-run homer.
The Phillies tied the game in the top of the eighth on an 0-2 two-out home run by Trea Turner, his 21st. Jose Ferrer’s next pitch was up and down near Bryce Harper’s head and Harper and Ferrer had words after an inning-ending strikeout. The benches and bullpens were emptied, but order was quickly restored.
The Nationals’ winning runs came against Jeff Hoffman in a rare ugly appearance. Wood tripled to lead off the bottom of the eighth and scored on a Keibert Ruiz single. Dylan Crews extended the inning with two outs and Joey Gallo hit a three-run homer. Hoffman has allowed an earned run in just nine of 68 appearances this season.
The only unfinished work with home field advantage for the Phillies concerns the World Series. They will look to get the better of the Yankees and Guardians with a win on Sunday.
Of more immediate concern is the line-up. The last thing a playoff team wants before a five-day layoff is a frigid weekend against one of baseball’s worst pitchers, and that’s exactly what the Phils are experiencing.
“It’s so different,” Turner said of the playoffs. “You’re going to play a quality team, everything is on the line, guys are going to pitch a little bit differently, managers are going to manage differently.
“Finishing well (in the regular season) doesn’t matter, finishing bad doesn’t matter. We didn’t play the best last week, but once that postseason starts, that’s all behind you and it’s about competing in that moment .”
