MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Donald Trump’s fourth planned stop in Wisconsin in eight days is a sign of his increased attention as Republicans worry about the former president’s ability to match Democrats’ enthusiasm and turnout machine .
“In the political talk class, they are concerned,” said Brandon Scholz, a retired Republican strategist and longtime political observer in Wisconsin who voted for Trump in 2020 but said he is not voting for Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala Harris this year. “I think Republicans are right to be concerned.”
Trump’s last rally was scheduled for 2 p.m. Central Time on Sunday in Juneau in Dodge County, which he won in 2020 with 65% of the vote. Republican Party Chairman Jack Yuds said support for Trump in his part of the state is stronger than in 2016 or 2020. “I can’t keep the signs down,” Yuds said. “They want everything he has. If it says Trump, you can sell it.”
Wisconsin is always close in presidential elections, but has gone Republican only once in the past four decades, when Trump won the state in 2016. A victory in November could make it impossible for Harris to win the White House.
Trump won against Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 by fewer than 23,000 votes and lost to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 by just under 21,000 votes.
On Tuesday, Trump made his first-ever visit to Dane County, home to the liberal capital of Madison, in an effort to make the Republican vote count even in the state’s Democratic strongholds. Dane is Wisconsin’s second most populous and fastest growing county; Biden received more than 75% of the votes four years ago.
“To win statewide you have to have a 72-county strategy,” former Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, said at that event.
Trump’s campaign and outside groups supporting his candidacy, Harris and her allies have spent more than $35 million to $31 million on ads in Wisconsin since she became a candidate on July 23, according to the media tracking company AdImpact.
Harris and outside groups supporting her candidacy earmarked more advertising time in Wisconsin from Oct. 1 through Nov. 5, more than $25 million, compared to $20 million for Trump and his allies.
The Harris campaign has 50 offices across 43 counties with more than 250 employees in Wisconsin, her spokesman Timothy White said. The Trump campaign said it has 40 offices across the state and dozens of staff members.
Harris rallied supporters in Madison in September at an event that drew more than 10,000 people. On Thursday, she appealed to moderate and disaffected conservatives by hosting an event in Ripon, the birthplace of the Republican Party, along with former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, one of Trump’s most prominent Republican opponents.
Harris and Trump are focusing on Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the “blue wall” states that voted for Trump in 2016 and went to Biden in the next election.
While Trump’s campaign is optimistic about the chances in both Pennsylvania and the Sunbelt states, Wisconsin is seen as more challenging.
“Wisconsin, tough state,” said Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita, who worked on Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s winning 2022 reelection campaign.
“I mean, look, that’s going to be very tight, very, very tight, all the way to the end. But where we are now organizationally, compared to where we were organizationally four years ago, it’s completely different,” LaCivita said.
He also called Michigan more challenging. “But again, these are states that Biden won and carried and so it will be a fight to the end and we are not ceding any of that ground.”
The candidates are about even in Wisconsin, based on a series of polls that have shown little movement since Biden dropped out in late July. The same polls also show great enthusiasm among both parties.
Mark Graul, who managed President George W. Bush’s campaign in Wisconsin in 2004, said the number of campaign visits speaks to Wisconsin’s decisive role in the election.
The key for both parties, he said, is convincing the few voters to vote.
“Much more important, in my opinion, than rallies,” Graul said.
___
Associated Press writers Thomas Beaumont in Des Moines, Iowa, and Jill Colvin in Butler, Pennsylvania, contributed to this report.
