CIA Director William Burns warned Monday of the possibility that simmering clashes in the Middle East could spread across the region, while, he said, the US intelligence community had assessed that the leaders of Iran and Israel were not seeking a ” total conflict’.
“[W]We face the very real danger of further regional escalation of the conflict,” Burns said during a moderated question-and-answer session at the annual Cipher Brief threat conference in Sea Island, Georgia. He said the Israeli leadership “considered very carefully” how to proceed respond to Iran’s ballistic missile attack last week, but warned that “wrong judgments” could still lead to an unintended escalatory spiral.
“The Middle East is a place where complicated things happen all the time,” Burns said.
A combination of robust intelligence sharing between the US and Israel, and ‘strong’ integrated air defenses, allowed the defeat of the massive missile attack from Iran on October 1, Burns said. The attack revealed some “limitations” in Tehran’s military capabilities, but he said: “This is not to say that those capabilities are not still fully potent and something that not only Israel but also the United States must take very seriously to take.’
The former senior diplomat —who played a key role in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal, which placed limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment program, said his agency had nonetheless seen no indication that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had decided to halt his country’s efforts to produce a nuclear weapon speed up.
“[W]We see no evidence today that the Supreme Leader has reversed the decision he made in late 2003 to suspend the armaments program,” Burns said. However, he acknowledged that Iran was in a “much closer position” to deliver a single bomb’s worth of weapons-grade material, with a breakout time now “a week or a little longer.”
Speak a year after Hamas militants stormed into southern IsraelAfter killing more than 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping more than 250, Burns – who had led diplomatic negotiations over the past year with colleagues from Qatar, Egypt and Israel – expressed hope that a diplomatic deal could still be reached for a ceasefire and securing peace. release of the remaining hostages in Gaza.
“We came close at least a few times, but it was very elusive,” he said. Talks on Gaza had stalled in recent weeks as US officials said: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had stopped responding to updated proposals.
“[W]What is at stake in Gaza is determined by political will,” Burns emphasizes. “Ultimately, it’s not just about hooks in texts or creative formulas when you try to negotiate a hostage situation and a ceasefire. It’s about leaders who must ultimately recognize that enough is enough, that perfection is rarely on the menu, especially in the Middle East.”
“And then you also have to make difficult choices and compromises in the interest of long-term strategic stability,” he said.
