Phillies, one loss away from a winter of uncertainty and tough decisions, originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
The Phillies aren’t just one loss away from going home for the winter.
They are one loss away from having to make a series of tough decisions to reformat their roster to better compete in 2025.
There’s still a chance, albeit a slim one, that they put together a two-game winning streak, as they did 32 times in the regular season, to bounce back against the Mets in the NLDS, but if they can’t, it’s almost impossible to imagine John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski bringing back a similar version of the team next season as they did in 2024. Too much has been invested. There’s too much at stake.
The areas that need improvement are no mystery. First and foremost, the Phillies need more selectivity in their lineup. They need more hitters who are able to control the strike zone and control an at-bat. They only have two that work, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. The rest of the offense is built around free-swingers like Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto, Edmundo Sosa and Johan Rojas. Bryson Stott also took a step back this season and Brandon Marsh continued to strike at an alarming clip.
It’s obviously not a bad lineup or group, but it failed to adapt in October when things changed. One reason this isn’t the case is because aggressiveness is in the DNA of most of these hitters.
“It’s hard to get up early but we have to fight,” said manager Rob Thomson. “I thought our at-bats were OK early in the game. We hit three balls early, but just didn’t have anything to show for it. As the game went on, I think at some point the guys tried to do a little bit too .” We just have to stick to our approach and pass the baton, that’s what we always talk about.”
To improve the selectivity of a lineup, it is not necessary to sign Juan Soto for $400 million. For example, the Mets acquired Jesse Winker cheaply at the trade deadline. He’s a platoon player best suited for the six-hole, but he can work a lot better than all but two of the Phillies.
The Phils came close to winning in 2022 and felt like they were even closer in 2023 until their red-hot playoff run ended abruptly after Game 2 of the NLCS. This 2024 team was the best and most talented of the three, but for the second year in a row, the front office failed to add impact at the trade deadline.
A big reason for that is that the Phillies were stuck with their starters at first base, second base, shortstop, third base, catcher, right field and DH. There weren’t many places to upgrade. But Austin Hays has made little impact – partly due to injury and a kidney infection – and was the only attacking signing of the summer.
Hays was acquired specifically for his ability to hit lefties, but had such a poor outing Tuesday night that he could be replaced by Weston Wilson in left field against Jose Quintana in Game 4. Hays took three at-bats against Sean Manaea, tagging out softly to third base and striking out twice on pitches outside the zone.
“We need to talk about it tonight,” Thomson said. “It looked a bit rusty and a bit off balance, the timing was a bit off. We’ll talk about the setup later.”
Barring an October turnaround that should begin Wednesday, Dombrowski and the Phillies’ front office will have to figure out center field and left field this winter. Marsh is a fan favorite and productive against righties, but he barely plays against lefties, making 16 starts all season. The Phils need a better offensive arrangement against lefties than Hays left with Rojas in center. And they probably also need a better attacking option in the center against righties than Rojas.
Those are the two most obvious places to upgrade, but the Phillies would be wise to consider other options and likely will. Is Stott an everyday player? Is Bohm, who was benched in Game 2 of the NLDS, the long-term answer at third?
As attached as these players are to each other and the fanbase to them, these are the hard decisions a front office must make when it comes time to shake up a formula that has been working, but not well enough.
It is still under the control of this group. They have the opportunity to extend their season and postpone a series of difficult decisions. They just can’t lose anymore this week.
“As a group, this is the closest we will ever come to death. So in a way we should feel the most alive,” Castellanos said. “We’re only promised tomorrow and this is what we’ve been working for since spring training, to get this opportunity. It’s just one more time to show and leave it all on the field and however the dice will land , it will land .
“Rather than just flush it and forget about it, I think it’s really important now to embrace the situation we’re in. If we lose, we go home, baseball is over for us. It’s a great opportunity because if we can get another win here, I know they won’t want to go back to Philly for a Game 5.”
