The 2024-2025 NBA season is here! We analyze the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy prospects for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
MIAMI HEAT
End 2023-24
Off-season moves
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Additions: Alec Burks, Nassir Little, Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson
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Deductions: Caleb Martin, Delon Wright, Patty Mills, Orlando Robinson
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Complete roster
The big question: is there a path to a twist-caliber offense?
Since the arrival of Jimmy Butler, the Heat have made five straight playoff appearances and two trips to the NBA Finals. The combination of Butler’s two-way brilliance, Bam Adebayo’s evolution into one of the NBA’s most complete players and coach Erik Spoelstra’s ability to turn any roster into a top-10 defense creates a high floor. And when Butler’s play takes a turn toward the transcendent…
…the ceiling isn’t half bad either.
However, it is not easy to achieve it. Last season the Heat finished below 10 in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, how often they shot at the rim, team shooting percentage on attempts at the rim, points in the paint, offensive efficiency in clutch situations and scoring efficiency in transition, among other categories.
“We have to improve,” Spoelstra told reporters. “We have to innovate.”
And while Spo and the gang certainly won’t shy away from that challenge…
Erik Spoelstra asked about teams in the East that are getting better, like Philly and New York
His answer:
“You sound scared.”
— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) September 30, 2024
…an offense that is league-average at best probably won’t be enough to beat the East’s best teams.
“Spo always talks about a top-five defense and a top-five offense,” Butler told reporters. “That is the formula for success.”
The recipe starts with better health, especially for Butler — who, excluding Playoff Paul Bunyan, has yet to play 65 games in a season in Miami, has missed an average of 20 games per year and just turned 35. story, he entered camp without a contract extension; another related story, he didn’t bring his pieces to media day.)
Injuries limited Butler, Adebayo and Tyler Herro to just 527 minutes together last season and to just 118 minutes with trade-deadline acquisition Terry Rozier (who quietly averaged 18-4-4 and shot 42% from deep after the All -Starbreak). In theory, there are more lineups with multiple shot makers and on-ball/spot-up threats should have more ways to look good – especially if Herro really works more off the ball and if Spoelstra really shifts the attack a bit from iso-heavy play to more fluid, faster-moving sets.
“I definitely intend to see what Terry, Tyler, Jimmy [and] Bam looks like it,” Spoelstra told reporters.
He will also have to be intentional about how he fills the frontcourt vacancy left by Martin. Will he look to Haywood Highsmith, who has re-signed to a two-year deal worth $11 million? The 6-foot-4, 27-year-old with a 7-foot wingspan could be a steal, if last year’s shooting — 42% on corner 3s (though on just 84 attempts) — could play a bigger role.
There’s also third-year forward Nikola Jović, who offers perhaps the most utility as a shooter, complementary playmaker and offensive connector:
Nikola Jovic shot 39.9% from three last year at 6.8 3pa/75, really impressive volume and efficiency for a 6’10 21 year old
always had a great touch as a prospect, even if the efficiency was inconsistent pic.twitter.com/iOYvU0jfy7
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) October 7, 2024
After breaking out of the rotation in late December, the 20-year-old Serbian averaged eight points, four rebounds and just under two assists in 20.2 minutes per game, shooting 39.7% from 3-point range on nearly four attempts per night. Miami outscored opponents by 9.1 points per 100 when Jović shared the floor with Butler and Adebayo; that margin came in just 407 minutes, but deserves more study.
Be it Highsmith, Jović, Jaime Jaquez Jr. or anyone else standing next to Adebayo, it could be the Heat’s center that helps the offense take the biggest step forward…especially if he keeps taking a step back.
After shooting 68 3-pointers in his first six seasons, Adebayo went 17-for-52 from deep in 2023-24, then shot nine from the FIBA line during Team USA’s run to gold in Paris. He aims to fire at least 100 triples this season.
No one expects Bam to turn into Kristaps Porziņģis overnight. But if his outbound migration continues in an upward direction, it could be a huge boon for Miami’s often overloaded offense, with better half-court spacing meaning wider driving lanes and a livelier drive-and-kick game.
“Hopefully this is an offense that will be firing on all cylinders in the second half of the season,” Spoelstra said.
If not — if they once again struggle to score and struggle to stay above play-in contention with Butler’s $52.4 million player option looming — then the Heat could face existential questions. Not about floors or ceilings, but about what exactly they are still trying to build.
At best
A motivated Butler is having his healthiest and most productive season in a Heat uniform, earning his first All-NBA First Team selection. Adebayo makes good on his promise to launch more 3s, reducing the number of things he can’t do on a basketball court to… zero? Spoelstra finds the right mix of shooting, playmaking and defense in the front five, and whoever ends up on the outside looking in – Jaquez comes to mind – makes a strong push for the Sixth Man of the Year. We look up into March and are stunned to realize that Miami is on its way to a top-four finish and primed for another deep postseason run.
When everything falls apart
Butler, Herro and Rozier are still battling injuries, leaving Adebayo overloaded as he tries to take on a superstar’s shot-making workload And Seal every leak in the defense. The youth sputter under the bright lights, and because financial flexibility and available resources are scarce, there is no cavalry on the way. The Heat enter a new spring, watching teams they once defeated pass them in the postseason and up the league’s pecking order, and are forced to face a future full of tough choices.
Fantasy twist
As one of the best defensemen in the league, Adebayo is a reliable source of points, boards and steals that will be off the draft board in the fourth round. If he continues to launch 3s, it will be a compelling development for his fantasy profile.
Butler’s ADP increases from late to mid-fourth round despite his sketchy contract situation. Still, health is an issue, as Jimmy Buckets hasn’t played more than 65 games since the 2016-17 season. Herro is also dealing with injuries and has underperformed against his seventh-round ADP. Likewise, Rozier is looking for a rebound campaign after his fantasy production soured when he was dealt to Miami last year.
Kel’el Ware is a sleeper I targeted late in the drafts because he looked great in the preseason and his play reminds me of a mix of LaMarcus Aldridge and Dereck Lively II. Ware is the innovation that Coach Spo talks about. — Then Titus
Schedule 2024-25
Small bumps due to the offense and overall health should push Miami past this number. How much further it will go, however, remains an open question.
