LAS VEGAS – Shannon Bilbray Axelrod, a Democratic member of the Nevada Assembly, stood at the head of a conference table Wednesday evening and thanked volunteers for their hard work. But the volunteers weren’t there to boost her campaign for Clark County commissioner.
They urged voters to support “Question 6,” a measure further down the ballot that would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution.
The effort to pass Question 6 is not explicitly tied to any political party or campaign, but Axelrod was confident the measure could boost her own bid in a Democratic-leaning county.
“They have to go through the entire ballot” to get to Question 6, Axelrod said. “So that’s helpful.”
But a key question remains whether Axelrod and other Democratic candidates in battleground states across the country will be able to lead these abortion-related initiatives to victory in next month’s elections, as many in the party had hoped.
Constitutional amendments to expand or protect access to abortion will be put in the hands of voters this fall in 10 states, including the presidential battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada and the Senate battlegrounds of Montana and Florida.
Polls show that the ballot measures are generally popular in many of the states, findings that are in line with the success that similar initiatives have had in other parts of the county following the backlash to the U.S. House’s reversal of Roe v. Wade Supreme Court in 2022.
But the surveys also show a noticeable gap in support between abortion rights amendments and Democratic presidential and Senate candidates campaigning on an abortion rights platform.
With the future of abortion access appearing directly on the ballot, some voters — especially Republicans and independents — have effectively separated the issue from the candidates in the other races they will decide.
“It’s almost like ‘Choose your own adventure,’” said Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan polling and research firm focused on Nevada, Arizona and other southwestern states.
Noble said voters in states like Arizona and Nevada might feel comfortable supporting a ballot measure that protects abortion rights, while other important issues — such as the economy and immigration — could dictate their choice in other major races.
“People will be able to vote on these measures — for abortion or against abortion — but their presence on the ballot allows them to separate the issue from their choice for Senate or president,” Noble said.
Pro-abortion rights ballot measures won in every state where they appeared on the ballot, including conservative-leaning states, in the 2022 and 2023 elections. But in a presidential election cycle that will feature much greater voter involvement and turnout, Republicans say the effect of the amendments will be reduced.
“I think an abortion initiative in a midterm election could certainly be a motivating factor for turnout. In a presidential election, not so much,” Montana GOP Senator Steve Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told NBC News. “I think voters right now are very motivated, whether you’re Democrat or Republican, to first and foremost show up to vote in the presidential election and vote from there.”
Even if their candidates haven’t reached the polls on the ballot measures, Democrats still view them as a net positive for members of their party who have made abortion rights a central tenet of their campaigns.
“This abortion ballot initiative is also something that will ensure that new voters who didn’t participate two years ago will vote for Democrats this election,” Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said, referring to the Nevada measure.
Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, the coalition supporting Question 6, plans to knock on 1 million doors and make 1.5 million phone calls by Election Day, according to the coalition’s campaign manager, Tova Yampolsky.
“I think it will encourage people to vote for pro-choice people,” said Jeri Burton, director of membership and volunteers for the National Organization for Women’s Nevada chapter, which hosted the recent volunteer event and has fielded candidates in the election supported. .
An August Fox News poll found that as many as 75% of registered voters supported passage of the Nevada amendment, while only 21% said they opposed it. More than half of self-identified Republicans and more than three-quarters of self-identified independents said they would vote in favor of the measure.
In the Nevada Senate race, however, polls have shown Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen with a narrower lead over Republican Sam Brown, but still outside the margin of error. And the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is neck and neck.
Also in Arizona, a proposed amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution has clear majority support. A New York Times/Siena College poll last month found that 58% of likely voters said they support the amendment, while 35% said they oppose it. Broken down by party, 63% of self-identified independents and 30% of self-identified Republicans said they supported it.
The same poll showed Trump leading Harris among likely voters by 50% to 45%, within the margin of error. And in the Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego was ahead of Republican Kari Lake 49% to 43%, also within the margin of error. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll in Arizona last month found similar results.
“There are other issues that are just as important or even more important to people right now,” Noble said. “Abortion is big, but when it comes to putting food on the table or providing a home, the pocketbook issues are hard to beat.”
In Florida, a proposed abortion-related amendment is also outperforming Democratic candidates in the polls, albeit by smaller margins and with a lower support ceiling.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week found that 46% of likely voters supported the amendment, while 38% said they opposed it. Just over a quarter of self-identified Republicans said they were in favor of the measure.
Other polls from August and September showed the ballot measure had majority support, as it was thought a 60% threshold would be needed to pass it in Florida.
The New York Times/Siena survey showed Trump leading Harris 55% to 41% among likely voters, with Republican Sen. Rick Scott ahead of former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell with 49% to 40% in the Senate race.
In Montana, there is little evidence that the presence of an abortion rights amendment has had a major effect on the race between three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.
There has been sparse polling on the ballot measure there, but polling in the Senate race has largely given Sheehy an advantage — even though Tester, like other Democrats, has leaned heavily on reproductive rights as a campaign issue.
A New York Times/Siena College poll this week found Sheehy leading Tester 52% to 44% among likely voters, a result that was within the survey’s margin of error but also in line with other public surveys .
Chuck Denowh, former executive director of the Republican Party of Montana, acknowledged that the ballot measure “will have an impact” on the Senate race and help boost Democratic turnout. But he was still confident Sheehy is in a strong position to win.
“A handful of extra votes from this abortion initiative certainly helps Tester, but it won’t put him over the top,” Denowh said.
The ruby red state is safe ground for Trump in the presidential race.
Meanwhile, polls in other conservative states, where an amendment to enshrine abortion rights is being introduced in November, appear to show no significant momentum for Democrats.
In Missouri, for example, public polls show broad support for a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights, while Republican Sens. Josh Hawley and Trump are strong leaders in their race.
Democrats acknowledge that such ballot measures tend to be more popular than their candidates.
“In every election I’ve ever worked in, you always see ballot initiatives outperform politicians by certain margins,” said Rocha, the Democratic strategist. “Many politicians are not popular.”
Bridget Bowman reported from Las Vegas; Adam Edelman reported from New York.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
