There is good news when it comes to the tropics: Although the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two investments, neither appears to pose a threat to Florida at this time.
Invest 94L, which flirted with the potential of developing into Tropical Storm Nadine earlier this week, is expected to hit Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with flooding rain.
The newly designated Invest 95L, which shows some potential to become a short-lived tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Nadine, could bring similar conditions to Central America and Mexico on Saturday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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Even better news for those recovering from Hurricanes Helene and Milton: No tropical development is expected for the next 10 days, according to the latest two-week forecast from meteorologists at Colorado State University.
The next named storms of the season are Nadine and Oscar.
There are ‘tips’ for tropical development in the western Caribbean later this month
In their two-week forecast, Colorado State University meteorologists said there is a 50% chance of tropical development over the next two weeks, Oct. 15 through Oct. 28.
There is nothing available now and the chances of Invests 94L and 95L developing are quite low.
“However, there are indications of possible additional development in the western Caribbean late in the forecast period, but these signals are quite weak,” CSU forecasters said.
“Wind shear anomalies are expected to be slightly below normal over the two-week period in the Caribbean, so we believe there is additional potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean.”
A similar prediction was issued by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.
“I am confident that the next week and a half will be free of the panic associated with tropical threats to the continental United States,” Truchelut said. “However, at longer distances, the hurricane season is not yet over.” Truchelut is a Florida-based meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
“There is solid evidence of unusually favorable upper-level winds moving into the Caribbean for a few weeks, starting in late October and lasting through mid-November.
“With the Caribbean Sea still scalding hot, it is possible that one or two more named storms could be squeezed out of this system. That’s not to say these would be US landfall threats – history suggests they wouldn’t – but it is worth keeping an eye on the period from October 30 to November 10, just in case.”
Late season hits from major hurricanes unusual for Florida
The last Category 3+ landfall in Florida, 1921 Hurricane Tarpon Springs, occurred on Oct. 25, and no major hurricane has ever struck the U.S. after Oct. 28, Truchelut said.
Only about 2% of annual U.S. landfalls occur after that date: about 20 storms in about 170 years, seven of which are hurricanes. Most late-season landfalls are focused on South Florida, with Category 2 Hurricane Kate in the Panhandle a notable exception.”
Here is the latest update from the NHC as of October 18 at 2 a.m.:
Where is Invest 94L and where is it going?
Invest 94L: An ill-defined low-pressure trough produces disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend from the northern Leeward Islands for a few hundred kilometers northward across adjacent Atlantic waters.
Any development of this disturbance should occur slowly as it moves rapidly westward to west-northwestward at about 20 miles per hour (32 kilometers per hour) today along or just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, then Saturday along Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. .
No further development is expected towards the end of this weekend due to strong winds at higher levels.
➤ Follow Invest 94L
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Probability of formation during 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
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Formation chance during 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Impact: According to AccuWeather, heavy rain and gusty winds will threaten many of the islands in the northern Caribbean from late this week into next week.
Northeasterly winds will help push anything that might develop away from Florida, but those same winds could bring rough surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding to Florida’s east coast, according to AccuWeather.
Invest in 94 liter spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.
Where is Invest 95L and where is it going?
Invest 95L: Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to fall over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined north of eastern Honduras.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next two days, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.
➤ Follow Invest 95L
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Probability of formation during 48 hours: average, 50 percent.
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Formation chance over 7 days: average, 50 percent.
Impact: Regardless of the development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over parts of Central America and southern Mexico this weekend, the National Hurricane Center said.
Invest in 95 liter spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is an investment?
The National Hurricane Center, short for research, uses the term invest to refer to areas of low pressure that it is monitoring for possible development into a tropical depression or storm.
Investments are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They are usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and the fact that they have been designated as an investment project does not guarantee that they will develop into a tropical cyclone.
Investments range from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99 it starts again and the next investment would be 90.
Once something is designated as an investment, specialized data sets and computer modeling can begin, including planning Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What else is the National Hurricane Center monitoring?
The National Hurricane Center is not monitoring any other disturbances in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The shaded areas on a tropical scout map “indicate areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely it is that a system can develop where yellow is low, orange is middle and red is high.
The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue a tropical advisory until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season end?
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, the Hurricane Center said.
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(This story has been updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared in The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Tropics update: Tropical Storm Nadine, Invest 94L, 95L
