Patriots vs. Jaguars preview: Maye can take advantage of this matchup originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Patriots know they are on shaky ground.
They are 1-5. They have lost five in a row. They are near the bottom of the league in significant offensive play And defensive statistical categories, including points scored (13.8, 31st), EPA per play (-0.18, 30th), yards per pass (4.1, 31st), yards allowed (358.8, 25th), Third down success rate (44.7 percent, 26th) and dropback success rate allowed (49.6, 26th).
It’s ugly.
And on top of that, they’re now facing questions about whether or not they let complacency creep into the locker room during what is widely considered a rebuilding year.
Both players and coaches, led by head coach Jerod Mayo, have acknowledged that they are in the midst of a lengthy process to get the team back into contention. While understanding the reality of the situation is in some ways healthy for everyone involved, how can players cope with a lethargic wait-until-next-year (or the year after) approach during what Mayo called a “reset” in London on Friday ? ?
“Personally, I’m trying to step into that leadership role and tell the guys to put pressure on yourself,” Kendrick Bourne said this week. “What did that look like when you were running routes? What did that feel like? Did you do your best? Did you give your best? I think that’s the mentality we have to have.
“The coach can tell you anything you want. But if you don’t tell yourself, we’ll never get anywhere. We stay in the same boat every year between 1 and 5. Personally, I look at I hate being locked up. I hate when I drop a ball…The coaches do a great job, but it has to be personal to do that as a whole.”
Ultimately, what Mayo and other Patriots decision-makers will want to create is a culture obsessed with winning. Coming out on top on any consistent basis is not the expectation this year, nor should it be given the state of the roster and the foundation-laying stage the organization is in.
But there is a fine line between managed expectations and apathy. When losing becomes acceptable, that can be a difficult standard to shake.
Jonathan Jones explained this week that personal pride should stave off that kind of player perspective in Foxboro.
“I think every guy is a professional,” Jones said. “It is our job and our livelihood. You too [judged] about what you do as an individual week in, week out. If nothing else, you take pride in yourself as a professional and you go out there and give it your all.”
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It’s not always easy, Bourne acknowledged, to maintain that psychological edge when results don’t materialize. Especially over a longer period of time.
“It’s hard,” he said. “It’s the setback. It’s like, ‘Okay, this again?’ If we’re in the game and we’re down by 14 points, I think, ‘Okay, here we go again. But that’s the decision.’ We continue to play, only to be seven behind at half time with the ball.
“It’s changing quickly. If we keep falling into, ‘Here we go again,’ it will be, ‘Here we go again.’ We have to make the personal decision. We’re just going to play and see where we are in the end. If we feel sorry for ourselves and play the victim, it will be the same result, a change in mentality.”
Playing against the one-win Jaguars is as good an opportunity for a change in mentality.
“We need it,” Jones said. “I think both teams need it. It’s just one of those games to get some momentum going, just prove to ourselves that we can win, go out there and put together some consistent plays, some consistent drivers, consistent quarters and getting out.” with a win.”
Here are the games that will determine whether or not the Patriots find what they’re looking for at Wembley Stadium on Sunday…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Drake Maye vs. Ryan Nielsen
Nielsen was the defensive coordinator for the Falcons last year, leading a group that finished fifth in the NFL in success allowed and 12th in EPA per play allowed. Not bad for a team with 37-year-old Calais Campbell as its best pass rusher.
This year, Nielsen, in the same role for the Jaguars, has had a much tougher time. His defense is last in the NFL in EPA per play and dropback EPA. It is also 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt, 27th in dropback success rate and 25th in third-down defense. Only two teams pressure opposing quarterbacks less often than Jacksonville (26.9 percent pressure rate).
This should make for a nice day for Drake Maye, who averaged 7.4 yards per pass against Houston’s top-ranked defense in Week 6. One matchup he might like is DeMario Douglas playing whatever Jaguars defenseman happens to be in his zone. . According to NextGen Stats, Douglas has the sixth-most slot yards in the NFL this year, and the Jags allow a passer rating of 128.3 when slot receivers are targeted against them.
“Dad, you can’t guard him in a phone booth,” Maye said this week. “He’s tough to guard in man coverage, and he has a knack for finding zones. So he’s a great guy to have there and makes my job a little easier. Every time you see a man matchup, it’s Pop someone you want to go to.”
Matchup that could surprise you
Christian Gonzalez vs. Brian Thomas Jr.
While Christian Gonzalez is in the midst of an impressive sophomore season, he was challenged by Stefon Diggs in Week 6, allowing four catches on five targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. His matchup this week isn’t nearly as successful as Diggs’, but he’s talented in his own right.
Don’t be dismayed if rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. finds some production against Gonzalez in London. He leads rookie receivers in receiving yards (424) and deep receiving yards on targets traveling at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (225), according to NGS.
While Thomas isn’t the smart route runner that Diggs is, and while he’s had serious falling issues this season (eight on the year), he’s a real height-weight-speed problem at 6-foot-4. and with a 4.33 second 40 at this year’s combined.
The Jags rank 23rd in points scored this season (18.8), but they have shown they can move the football – thanks in large part to the bond Thomas and Trevor Lawrence have built in their first year together. They rank seventh in the league in dropback success this season.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Jaguars lead on defenders vs. Patriots offensive tackles
This will be an almost weekly staple for the Patriots. The scariest match will be the one that poses the greatest threat to Maye’s well-being. This week, like last week, it’s the edges of the pocket that could be problematic for New England’s offense.
New England remains the worst team in football when it comes to pressures allowed (48.1 percent), and there will be changes at the tackle position. With Vederian Lowe (ankle) ruled out, it could be Demontrey Jacobs who fills the spot after playing right tackle in recent weeks. Mike Onwenu would then likely kick out to play right tackle, with rookie Layden Robinson coming off the bench and starting at right guard.
Not ideal against Jags pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. According to NGS, Hines-Allen (23 pressures) and Walker (22) are one of only six passing duos in the NFL with at least 20 pressures each. While the Jags as a team don’t consistently bother the quarterbacks, they have two potential game-wreckers on the outside.
It’s up to offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt to help Onwenu and Jacobs in obvious passing situations involving quick passes, double teams or chips at the line of scrimmage. Maye ranked 20th in the league in Week 6 with 12 quick pass attempts that came within 2.5 seconds of the snap of the ball.
It would also be helpful for the Patriots, and Maye in particular after he absorbed eight hits in Week 7, if they can generate some production in the running game. That went out the window to some extent when the Patriots found themselves in a quick 14-0 hole against the Texans. There should be more room to run Sunday, as the Jags are 23rd in the NFL in rushing EPA per play allowed this season.
