We’re fifteen days away from the 2024 presidential election. Here’s where things stand.

• There are only 15 days left until Election Day.

• The race for the presidency remains razor-thin, with control of the White House at the drop of a hat.

• The most striking part of 2024 is how close the game was.

In just over two weeks, Election Day 2024 will arrive — a final conclusion to a wild, sometimes unprecedented presidential contest that, at this point, is still far too close to call.

The story of the 2024 race is that amid the chaos — President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, the rise of Vice President Kamala Harris and two assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump’s life — control of the White House still depends on a coin: flip.

As pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson noted, the 2024 race is exceptional because there has been little movement in the national polls since Labor Day, the traditional start date of the last pre-election day.

Without a second presidential debate between Trump and Harris, there are no more big moments that could likely shake up the race. All that’s left are the unexpected “October surprises,” although in today’s media environment, the bar for earth-shattering is difficult to cross if you’re not North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. (And even then, can anyone really be surprised when it comes to him?)

The good news for Trump is that he has gained ground since his widely publicized debate performance against Harris. The RealClearPolitics national average has fallen about 0.5 percentage points over the past week. Well-known election forecaster Nate Silver’s model now shows Trump with an extremely slim lead in what remains a toss-up race. According to FiveThirtyEight’s state averages, Trump has narrowed Harris’ lead in the three so-called Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Harris on Friday blasted Trump for being “exhausted,” referring to a series of interviews he reportedly walked away from.

“Well, if you’re exhausted on the campaign trail, it raises real questions about whether you’re cut out for the toughest job in the world,” Harris said in Michigan, referencing a Politico report that Trump ditched an interview because of “ exhaustion’. .”

In response, Trump said she is a “loser” who “doesn’t have the energy of a bunny.”

Instead, the former president has hit the podcast circuit hard, approaching the end of the campaign as a retired athlete chock-full of stories from the glory days. In all seriousness, his team is targeting young men. It seems to work. According to The New York Times, Trump leads Harris among young men “58 to 37 percent in the last three Times/Siena national polls.” Harris, on the other hand, is creating an even wider gender gap among young women.

In an era of tight elections, 2024 enters the home season with the potential to be one of the closest ever.

The big names are about to come out.

Amid the final push, both campaigns are turning to a mix of their top surrogates. Like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton before her, Harris has virtually every top Democrat at her disposal. She is about to work with both Obamas separately in Georgia and Michigan, respectively. In recent days, Harris has also been seen alongside former “Shark Tank” star Mark Cuban, her favorite billionaire. Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney and other top Republicans will also continue to emphasize Harris’ democracy theme and attack the former president for his refusal to accept his 2020 loss.

Harris’ team has teased bigger guys. They’ve touted a Get Out the Vote concert set to pop star Charli XCX’s signature “Brat Green.” Democrats often turn to musicians and celebrities to provide the final push. Obama ended his re-election bid with an election night rally in Des Moines, Iowa, accompanied by a performance by Bruce Springsteen. Clinton called on the Boss and Bon Jovi to campaign with her at her final rally of 2016 in Philadelphia. The pandemic dampened the 2020 race, but there is little doubt about big spectacles this time around.

Trump starts early with a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City. He’s never had such a big bench or as glitzy guests as the Democrats. It’s still news when his wife, former first lady Melania Trump, joins him — as she did at Thursday night’s Al Smith dinner.

The former president’s entire appeal is based on breaking with traditional American politics. That’s why few, if any, Republican standard bearers ever campaign with him. His actions leading up to and during the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot have also further eroded relations, namely with his former running mate, Mike Pence, who has said Trump endangered his family. On Friday, “Fox & Friends” cohosts practically begged Trump to campaign with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Instead of talking about his former chief enemy, Trump praised Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The world’s richest man has donated about $75 million to a pro-Trump super PAC he founded. Musk also recently joined Trump at a rally and is now hosting his own series of events.

Here is the all-important map of the Electoral College.

With these numbers in mind, there is a clear picture of how each candidate can win.

Harris’ easiest path remains what was once Biden’s Hail Mary strategy before he dropped out of the race: sweep the Great Lakes states and complete the Blue Wall with Nebraska’s blue dot. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have been voting for the same presidential candidate since 1992. But with elections this close, there is always the possibility that one will fail.

Most models predict that if Trump wins Pennsylvania again, he will be the next president. If he opens a gap elsewhere, Harris could repair the damage by picking up a state like North Carolina — even though the Tar Heel State has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once this century (Obama’s 2008 victory). There’s also the possibility of Georgia, a state you may remember Biden won by just 11,779 votes in 2020.

The good news for the vice president comes from Nebraska. Like Maine, Nebraska awards a portion of its Electoral College votes by congressional district. In the predominantly conservative state, there is a swing district, the Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd. Obama narrowly won in 2008. Nebraska Republicans then successfully pushed to recapture the seat. Amid a broader demographic realignment, Biden easily won the district in 2020. Trump’s best plan for Warren Buffett’s backyard was a last-minute change to state law. But it didn’t work. It means there is still a possibility of Harris winning the presidency 270 to 268, avoiding the possibility of just the second tie in the country’s history.

Trump’s team once dreamed of toppling Minnesota, New Hampshire and perhaps even New Mexico in defeat to Biden. Since Harris’ emergence, they have tried to hold on to North Carolina. It’s entirely possible that Trump could flip Georgia and Arizona and leverage his increased standing among black and Latino men. But barring a major surprise, Trump’s best path remains finding a way to topple at least one Great Lakes state.

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