Welcome to the online version of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down the key polling dynamics shaping the final stages of the presidential race. Additionally, senior White House reporter Peter Nicholas explores how Barack Obama’s message may not be resonating with its hidden intended audience.
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7 key forces shaping the final days of the elections
By Mark Murray
With two weeks until Election Day, the polls can’t tell us who will win the presidential race — the results are so close, and surveys from previous cycles have been so bad, especially in 2020.
But we can still learn a lot from them. The national and state polls have revealed some key dynamics that have defined the campaign between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
1. Inflation remains voters’ top concern, but abortion is one of the top motivating issues.
Regardless of the poll, voters consistently say the cost of living is their top concern, usually followed by threats to democracy, immigration and the economy in general.
But then this month’s national NBC News poll asked a different question: Is there one issue that motivates you enough to make you vote for or against a candidate on that issue alone? – abortion jumped to the top of the list.
2. The gender gap is real.
Female voters support Harris by 14 points, while Trump wins among men by 16 points, according to the latest NBC News poll. That combined gender gap of 30 points is wider than what the exit polls showed in 2016 and 2020.
It’s especially important to pay attention to white women with college degrees, who back Harris by as much as 28 points in the October NBC News poll.
3. Trump has made gains among Latino and black voters.
While Harris and the Democrats have made further gains among white women with college degrees, they have lost ground among Latino voters and (in smaller numbers) black voters.
Whichever shift is bigger, especially in key battleground states, could ultimately decide the presidential race.
4. Voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s.
This remains one of the most important forces shaping this election: Trump’s retrospective job approval rating (48%) is higher than President Joe Biden’s current job approval rating (43%), according to this month’s NBC News poll.
5. Harris is more popular than Trump.
That said, Harris remains more popular than Trump, although the gap between them depends on the polls.
The October NBC News poll showed Harris with a net favorability rating just 2 points higher than Trump’s (down from 16 points in September). But a new Associated Press poll showed Harris with a net popularity advantage of 22 points.
6. The voting share of third parties has decreased.
When Biden entered the race, polls showed third-party presidential candidates winning support by double digits. But that has now dropped to just 4 to 5 points.
This could have implications in a close election, as a significant third-party vote in 2016 allowed Trump to win key battleground states with 47% to 48% of the vote.
7. Voters are divided over whether Harris or Trump is the candidate for change.
Of all these storylines, this could be the most important in a battle between a sitting vice president (Harris) and an ex-president (Trump): who is the change candidate?
The October NBC News poll found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, on who best represents change.
But more voters (43%) said their greater concern was that Harris would take the same approach as Biden, versus those (41%) who said their greater concern was that Trump would continue the same approach he took in his first term.
Obama has one particularly difficult audience on the campaign trail: young black men
By Peter Nicholas
TUCSON, Ariz. – If there is a prototypical Kamala Harris voter, it might appear to be Charles Johnson, a 23-year-old black college student.
Johnson is informed and politically engaged; he went to hear former President Barack Obama speak at a Democratic campaign rally on the University of Arizona campus on Friday.
Yet he is not that impressed with Obama, the country’s first black president, nor with Harris, who would become the second. He says he’s leaning toward voting for Donald Trump.
“The media says he [Trump] is terrible and he’s racist and he’s going to bring us back, but he only gets support from black voters,” Johnson said in an interview. “He only gets support from black men.”
Democrats have been unnerved by recent polls showing Harris’ numbers falling among black voters, and especially among young black men. As he campaigns for Harris, one of Obama’s jobs is to convince black men like Johnson that voting for Trump would be a grave mistake. In the remaining days before the election, he will do interviews with podcasters and several Internet personalities who have large black followings, an Obama aide said.
“Black male voters have tremendous respect and admiration for President Obama and will pay attention to his message,” said Joel Benenson, a former pollster for Obama’s campaign. ‘What is implicit in his message is: ‘You must stand with her as you stood with me.’ That’s the message they’ll get, and it’ll be helpful.
However, it is not certain that Obama’s target group is listening. A younger generation of black Americans may have seen little of Obama and have only a vague memory of a presidency that ended nearly eight years ago.
At a pair of rallies in Tucson and Las Vegas in recent days, Obama drew thousands of cheering supporters, though turnout among young black men appeared sparse.
When it comes to this particular segment of the electorate, Obama may not be the persuasive messenger he once was, some of the attendees said.
Read more from Peter →
🗞️Today’s top stories
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🚫 Keep your distance: Harris has no plans to campaign with Biden in the final weeks of the race. Instead, Biden plans to help Harris by privately leveraging some of his longstanding political relationships. Read more →
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⛪ Church and state: Harris and Tim Walz visited churches in Georgia and Michigan, respectively, on Sunday and underscored how the 2024 campaign has focused less on the candidates’ personal faith than ever before. Read more →
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🗣️ Salty language: Harris responded to Trump’s comments this weekend, calling her a “s—-” vice president and saying he is “demeaning the office of the president.” Read more →
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🍟Did Someone Say McDonald’s?: Trump spent the weekend working the fry machine and serving pre-selected customers at a McDonald’s in the Philadelphia area as he continued to sow doubt, without evidence, about Harris’ summer job years ago. The event also highlighted the two candidates’ plans for low-wage workers. Read more →
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💸 X marks the spot: Elon Musk has stepped up his efforts to help elect Trump, announcing a $1 million giveaway for Pennsylvania voters who sign a petition in support of the First and Second Amendments, alarming legal experts. Read more →
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🩺 Free care: The Biden administration is proposing a rule that would give more than 50 million women free access to over-the-counter birth control pills and other contraceptives through private insurance. Read more →
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☀️Florida Feud: Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP operative Jeff Roe, who led a super PAC backing DeSantis’ presidential bid, are on opposite sides of a ballot initiative to legalize marijuana in Florida. Read more →
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
