In 2022, Democrat Sarah Henry tried and failed to unseat a Republican lawmaker as a red wave swept Republicans into office, even in Orlando’s blue-leaning suburbs. This year, with a presidential election and hot-button issues like abortion rights on the ballot, she believes her story will end with an election victory.
“I think a lot of voters are going to come out,” Henry said. ‘We hear that when we knock. We see it on the garden signs in the neighborhoods… We also see this in our own campaign, where new volunteers appear every week and people call, text and email asking how they can get involved.’
Henry, 28, of Altamonte Springs, a nonprofit manager, is running again against Republican state Rep. David Smith, who is seeking his fourth term representing District 38, which includes much of southern Seminole County . She lost to Smith in 2022 by 4.6 percentage points.
Smith, 64, of Winter Springs, a retired U.S. Marine Corps and business consultant, did not return requests for an interview.
The two have starkly different views on abortion, which is on the ballot as Amendment 4, and the district is one that Democrats hope they can flip in their effort to overturn Republicans’ supermajority in the Florida House.
In July, District 38 had 43,530 registered Democrats, 41,759 Republicans and 38,372 nonpartisan voters. As it stands, the district would have voted for Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump in 2020.
Henry should have won two years ago, but Democratic turnout statewide in 2022 “was so bad that it ultimately didn’t work out, even though it should have been a seat Democrats won that year,” said Matt Isbell, analyst in the Democratic elections.
However, Smith outraised Henry by $466,000 to her $171,000, and the Republican Party of Florida also launched an ad attacking Henry.
“I felt like we didn’t have the representation our community needed in Tallahassee,” said Henry, former president of the Young Democrats of Seminole County. “Instead, we have an extremist, out-of-control legislature in Tallahassee that is pushing the governor’s policies.”
Smith’s website cites Florida’s “booming economy” during his term as a reason to reelect him. “As chair of the Manufacturing and Supply Chain Caucus, David has worked to grow good-paying jobs in this sector of our economy. Growing good jobs outside of the tourism and agriculture sectors makes Florida’s long-term future even brighter.”
Henry said the main issue was “reproductive care and reproductive freedom.”
She called Florida’s six-week abortion ban, which Smith voted for, “an extreme ban that limits freedom, limits access to health care and puts government where I don’t think it belongs.”
She supports Amendment 4, which would write the right to abortion until viability, or about 24 weeks into pregnancy, into the state constitution.
“Reproductive freedom and abortion access are not a partisan issue,” Henry said. “Republican, Democratic, and nonpartisan affiliated women and men support expanded reproductive freedom. And that’s not just abortion, it’s unfettered access to IVF for prospective parents, it’s the ability to access the care we need when we need it.”
Smith’s website states that he is “pro-life and will ensure Florida laws protect our unborn.”
Smith “supports a woman’s right to protect her own life for medical reasons, as well as exemptions for rape and incest,” the site continued. “David believes that abortion should not just be a form of contraception.”
Henry also cited Florida’s homeowners insurance crisis as a major problem.
“Whether or not you can afford a house has almost become a secondary question to whether or not you can afford a surprise, huge increase in your rates overnight,” she said. “There is no reason that companies should take money from the state and disappear and abandon citizens.”
She said a proposed bipartisan bill for universal wind coverage contained some “great ideas” and should have been debated in the House of Representatives during the last session.
“I really don’t think this is a partisan issue,” she said. “Our insurers do not check whether there is a D or an R after your name before they increase your rates. Republican lawmakers know that too.”
Smith’s website said the Legislature “achieved our short-term goal in 2023 to stabilize market conditions, and now insurance companies are no longer leaving Florida. And new companies are entering our state to write homeowners policies.
He cited his support for the $2 billion “Reinsurance Fund” in 2022 to tackle rising costs that require insurance companies to pass on their savings to customers. He also called for creating an insurance fraud task force and increasing funding for the My Safe Florida Home and Condo programs.
Smith’s website also states that he is “on the front lines fighting for parental rights” in schools, including “fighting Critical Race Theory in textbooks and discussing gender identity with preschoolers.”
Democrats need just five more seats to end the Republican supermajority in the state House, which could allow the party to slow the Republican Party’s agenda and gain more control over bills.
“What we have now is a legislature that doesn’t debate, doesn’t compromise, doesn’t argue,” Henry said. “Abandoning the supermajority and creating a legislature that is better able to have frank conversations only adds to the strength of our bills, the strength of our legislature and, frankly, the power of our people.”
The deadline to request a ballot is October 24. Early voting began Monday in Orange and Seminole counties, with Election Day on Nov. 5.
