One of the best aspects of the 12-team College Football Playoff era is its forgiveness. A team – Notre Dame, for example – can lose early in the season and still remain in the mix for an at-large bid. There are also a few teams with two losses in the Southeastern Conference playoffs.
But even with new wiggle room, a team will eventually reach a point where its back is against the wall. In the mix for the CFP it has to win its game. And that’s where the Fighting Irish find themselves when they take on undefeated Navy this weekend at MetLife Stadium.
Notre Dame is favored by almost two touchdowns, so Vegas clearly believes the Irish will win this test. But it is nevertheless a test against a service academy team that can do more than just use the triple option this season. Navy can throw the ball! The Navy can employ more of a traditional staggered offense system. Navy will also change formations and move before the snap to confuse defenses. And it’s working, as the Midshipmen are 6-0 here at the end of October. It will be a tall order for a Notre Dame team that will also have to deal with undefeated Army (!) later this season as it tries to win and secure a CFP berth.
When the Irish lost to Northern Illinois, I said they would make the Playoff if they won – even though they didn’t play well and were especially out of sync in the passing game. But it was and remains true regardless of the opponents scheduled the rest of the way. The state of Florida is terrible. USC is having a hard time. Those opponents look a lot more manageable than in September. But who would have thought that the two service academies would remain undefeated until the end of October? It’s a nice wrinkle to an already wild and crazy season. And I can’t wait to see the Irish against their wall this weekend, against one of the best teams left on their schedule and one of the best stories in all of college football.
Here’s what else I’m looking forward to in Week 9 of the college football season:
Who is the third best team in the SEC?
Joshua Perry and I debated this on the latest episode of Rushing The Field. These are the last two teams to go undefeated in SEC play, which is quite astonishing, but also lends credence to the idea that teams can and will get better as the season goes on. Joshua would give Texas A&M the edge heading into the Aggies’ game against LSU, while I lean Tigers. I’m a big fan of Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU passing attack, which will go against a Texas A&M team that prefers to run the ball. Which Connor Weigman shows up? We’ve seen the type of quarterback that can win a game for the Aggies. We’ve seen a bad quarterback that could cost them a game. And we’ve seen something in the middle. But in a matchup between too-good but flawed SEC teams, it could really come down to Weigman’s play.
How much better is Wisconsin, really?
The Badgers are on a three-game winning streak, and while they haven’t beaten the teams at the top of the Big Ten yet, they appear to have figured it out offensively. They can run the ball And toss it around a bit, and maybe they’ll finally give us an answer to what kind of offensive identity Wisconsin wants to have under Luke Fickell. That, combined with the fact that Camp Randall is one of the toughest places to play in college football, makes me believe the Badgers can hang in there with No. 3 Penn State. The Nittany Lions showed a lot of grit in their comeback road victory at USC, but I’m still not entirely sure what their ceiling is (especially if they’re so reliant on Tyler Warren offensively) and this would be a good barometer should be for them prior to their game against Ohio State. Of course, that also means they can look ahead to the Buckeyes a bit… which is another storyline to follow.
After this weekend, who will be best positioned for the Group 5 Playoff spot?
Late Friday night, Boise State will take on UNLV in the Game of the Year in the Group of 5 leagues. Seriously, it’s huge. Both teams have had impressive performances outside of conferences, with the Rebels picking up wins over Houston and Kansas, and the Broncos beating Washington State and taking on Oregon, the No. 1 team in the country, all while earning a convincing Heisman Trophy built a business. for returning Ashton Jeanty. It’s clear by now that the winner of the Mountain West will be well-positioned to secure the CFP spot that goes to the top-ranked Group of 5 champion. So it’s worth pouring that extra cup of coffee to stay up for the 10:30 PM ET kickoff. I promise.
