Kyiv, Ukraine (AP) — There is no doubt that the U.S. election will determine the trajectory of the war in Ukraine.
The status of military aid from Kiev’s main international backer depends on who becomes president, as does any prospect of a ceasefire that could benefit Ukraine.
Some in Kiev say the country’s survival depends on who wins the White House.
As the Americans vote, exhausted and outmanned Ukrainian soldiers hold defense lines under constant Russian fire, knowing the results will determine their future.
The war in Ukraine is one of the most divisive issues of the Nov. 5 election, with former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, advocating starkly different views on how much aid the U.S. should keep giving. give Ukraine.
After a whirlwind Western tour, Kiev’s leaders have sought to promote their version of what President Volodymyr Zelensky calls his “victory plan.” They hope that the new government will make important decisions – including Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership.
For now, they have no choice but to wait.
“We believe that regardless of the surname of the future US President, the country of the United States will not give up global dominance and leadership as such. And this is only possible through the support of Ukraine and the defeat of the Russian Federation,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Zelensky.
Harris would likely continue Biden’s policies
Harris, who has criticized President Vladimir Putin’s “brutality,” would likely continue President Joe Biden’s policy of support, albeit within the strict limits of Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory, which Kiev’s leaders have frustrated.
“President Biden has made clear from the beginning of this conflict that his top priority has been avoiding all-out war with Russia. I think this remains the top U.S. priority,” said Malcom Chalmers, deputy director general of the Royal United Services Institute in London.
The US has provided Ukraine with more than $59.5 billion in military weapons and aid since Russia invaded in February 2022. But all along, Kiev was caught up in fraught US politics that often undermined its battlefield potential.
Ukraine lost territory and manpower as weapons supplies dwindled in the six months it took the US Congress to pass an aid package. Even the promised military aid has failed to arrive on time or in sufficient quantities.
Ukraine still hopes for Western approval for attacks on Russian territory with longer-range weapons supplied by its allies. It also holds hundreds of square kilometers (square miles) in Russia’s Kursk region after an August raid.
Yet Biden’s commitment to supporting Ukraine has never wavered. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced a $400 million package during his recent visit. Zelenskyy said he expects another $800 million, the first tranche for Ukraine’s production of long-haul capabilities. Another $8 billion is expected by the end of the year.
But for some, it’s all too late.
“If the amount of aid that was promised but not delivered had been fulfilled, we could have entered into negotiations with Russia in a stronger position,” said General Lt. Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the General Staff.
Trump’s vague vows and praise for Putin
Trump has repeatedly criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine, made vague vows to end the war and praised Putin.
He is also considered very unpredictable.
Some Ukrainian officials even personally applaud this quality, saying it could lead to faster results. But so much is unknown about what decisions Trump would make.
“He has emphasized that he has a very different approach to Ukraine than Kamala Harris. And if what he says now is translated into action, it will be a very difficult period for Ukraine,” Chalmers said.
“Donald Trump increases the very clear likelihood that the United States will cut off most, if not all, military aid to Ukraine, which is given that the situation on the ground, while gridlocked, is one in which Russia currently has the advantage, the could tip the balance. in favor of Russia,” he added.
Podolyak said Trump understands “the logic” of Zelenskyy’s plans after meeting with him. “Mr. Trump realized that there is no way to agree on anything in this war, because it is necessary to ensure Russia’s urge to understand what a war is, and what consequences Russia will have in this war. That is, Russia can be forced to do something, but it cannot be asked.”
Faced with Trump’s harsh rhetoric, some Ukrainian officials say that despite his outspoken views, his actions as president sometimes benefited Ukraine. Some of the toughest sanctions were imposed against Russia’s elite during his administration. Trump also approved the sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine, something President Barack Obama failed to do.
Most Ukrainians fear that Trump will cut off all military aid to Kiev, and no other country can match US support. Ukrainian soldiers remain defiant and say they will continue to hold the line no matter what.
But the practical implications would be dire, and Kiev could be forced to accept devastating terms for a ceasefire, with a fifth of its territory under Russian control.
“If aid is stopped, the situation will become more complicated,” Romanenko said. “In this case, the seizure of Ukrainian lands will continue, but we do not know how quickly, because their offensive potential is not unlimited.”
Zelenskyy’s plans are at stake
Zelenskyy has presented his vision for ending the war to both Trump and Harris, arguing for its necessity. He said Ukraine hopes for a response from Washington after the elections, especially on the issue of NATO membership, stressing that such an invitation is irreversible.
Both Ukraine and Russia feel significant economic and social pressure to maintain the war effort. For the first time, Zelenskyy has spoken openly about the possibility of a partial ceasefire. But important questions remain about the fate of the Russian-occupied territories.
Russia has spent much of its government budget on defense spending and continues to lose thousands of troops. The possible introduction of what Zelenskyy has put at 10,000 North Korean troops indicates that Moscow is having trouble mobilizing new conscripts.
However, Ukraine’s battered energy infrastructure and struggling mobilization drive are under far more pressure than Russia. Kiev must find a way to de-escalate the intensity of the war and the attacks on shipping and the energy sector.
“Ultimately, this will only happen if both parties calculate that they will gain a net benefit from it,” Chalmers said.
“My concern would be the uncertainty of the coming months, when the Russians may think that with a final push they can really get much bigger concessions from the Ukrainians,” he added.
Zelensky’s plans were developed with this reality in mind. That’s why his team insists that Russia should be forced to talk, rather than convinced to do so. Without nuclear weapons as a deterrent, NATO is the only logical alternative.
“I said, ‘We don’t have nuclear weapons, we’re not in NATO, and we won’t be part of NATO during the war. That’s why I need this package. And you can’t be against it,” Zelenskyy said, describing his argument to reporters.
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