With only a week to go, it’s one bonded breed between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Pennsylvania – the largest electoral vote prize in the battleground states in the 2024 elections.
Trump is helped by voters’ negative perception of the contemporary situation economy and by the fact that more voters think they are better off financially with him in the White House than with Harris. Looking back, many more Pennsylvania voters say things went well in the U.S. during Trump’s presidency than say today.
Harris leads Trump among voters saying the state of democracy abortion are important factors, and she has an edge in some personal qualities. More think she has the cognitive health to serve as president than Trump thinks, and voters are more likely to see Harris’s views as reasonable and Trump’s as extreme.
And while Harris hasn’t convinced most Pennsylvania voters that she would strengthen American democracy (neither has Trump), slightly more voters think Trump will weaken it.
There has been little movement in the race here since September.
Problems
Looking back, more and more Pennsylvania voters say things were going well for the country when Trump was president, and those who feel that way are supporting him in large numbers. Trump maintains his lead on the question of who would make people better off financially, leading Harris among the large group among those who cite the US-Mexico border as an important factor in their voting behavior.
The state of democracy is also an important factor for Pennsylvania voters, along with other issues, but neither Harris nor Trump have given a clear indication of who would strengthen American democracy if they become president. Slightly more voters think Trump will weaken it than say about Harris, and that’s especially true among those who cite democracy as a major factor in their vote.
Personal qualities
But Trump’s views, more than Harris’s, are seen as extreme by more and more Pennsylvania voters, and those who hold those views overwhelmingly support Harris.
More generally, voters like the way Harris handles himself personally more than the way Trump does. (Though neither candidate is personally liked by a majority of voters).
And this helps Harris to some extent. Nearly all voters who like Harris are voting for her.
For Trump, however, there are a quarter of voters who dislike the way he treats himself personally but vote for him anyway, so not liking the way Trump behaves is not a disqualification for many. Only 5% of voters who dislike Harris support her.
Voter groups
In this neck-and-neck race, Harris is performing well with many of the same groups that President Biden excelled with in 2020, and Trump retains much of the support of the key groups that supported him.
White voters without a college degree (more than 4 in 10 voters here) remain some of Trump’s strongest backers. Most think they will be better off financially with his policies than Harris’s, and support him by a wide margin.
Harris leads Trump among white voters with college degrees, who make up just over a third of the electorate, a group that has become increasingly Democratic in recent elections.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania interviewed between October 22 and 28, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education and geographic region, based on data from the US census. and voter files, as well as past ballots. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 points.
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