What is a red flag warning? A look at fire risk and drought in New York and New Jersey

NEW YORK – When you think of wildfires, you think of states like California or Colorado, and that makes sense since fires are very common in those regions.

New York and New Jersey are certainly not known as wildfire hotspots, but with a long-term dry pattern taking hold in this region, the threat of wildfires has become a very real concern.

There have been several wildfires in recent weeks, and there are currently some active wildfires.

The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for much of the Tri-State region for Friday afternoon and evening due to high winds blowing over parched ground.

Conditions conducive to wildfire development across the region have been underway since early September, when our current drought began to manifest. Since September, less than two inches of rain has fallen in Central Park, and even less in parts of southern New Jersey, where drought conditions have reached severe levels.

The ongoing drought has made October 2024 the driest month on record in New York, as well as the driest October on record, with only 0.01 inches of rain.

We are also on track to experience our driest fall on record if rain does not return to the region in November. This is a contrast to last autumn, one of the wettest on record.

What is a red flag warning?

Red Flag warnings are intended to help fire managers know when not to prescribe burns on federal lands, such as protected forests. They also help the general public know when it is unsafe to use fire in an outdoor setting, such as a campsite.

To meet the warning criteria, vegetation on the ground and the soil itself must have a moisture content of less than 8%, relative humidity must be less than 25%, and wind speeds of more than 15 miles per hour are forecast over several hours . These conditions are exactly what is expected for Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind gusts could reach a speed of 55 km per hour on Friday, causing fires to spread quickly.

Are wildfires common in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut?

While wildfires may not be as common in this part of the country as in the West, they can and do happen. When they do occur, they are most common in the Pine Barrens of New Jersey, as well as the Meadowlands. Wildfires can occur anywhere in the region where there is extensive vegetation.

Normally, our wildfire season is during the months of March and April, when soil moisture is low, winds are gusty and evaporation rates are high. It is rare to see wildfires in this area during October and November, as cooler temperatures and abundant rainfall usually prevent fires from developing.

However, this fall has been above average in terms of temperatures, Halloween was the warmest on record and there has simply been no rain. Climate change has changed all weather and nature patterns, and that includes fire patterns.

Although the Red Flag Warning was only issued for Friday, the threat of bushfires will remain across the region until the pattern returns to wet. At this point, a short-term pattern change does not seem likely.

No measurable rain is forecast for the next week. If this trend continues, the entire region will be in a severe or even extreme drought by December.