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A new poll showed Kamala Harris with a surprising three-point lead over Trump in Iowa.
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Bets on Robinhood and Kalshi narrowed after the news.
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Trump easily won Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ betting odds rose overnight after a new poll showed her with a surprise lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa – a state he won easily in both 2016 and 2020.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll by Selzer & Co. published Saturday. showed Harris had a three-point lead in the state.
The results were reflected in tighter odds on the betting markets on Sunday morning.
On Kalshi, the popular US prediction platform, Harris’ chances of winning the election have risen from 35% on October 29 to 51% at the time of writing.
Harris’ chances of winning the popular vote also increased for Kalshi, from a low of about 61% on October 29 to 76% at the time of writing.
The electronic trading platform Robinhood also showed declining opportunities in the run-up to Tuesday’s elections.
Trump had a lead of 66% to 39% on October 29, but at the time of writing that lead had fallen to 52% to 51%.
The betting markets have benefited from this year’s presidential election. Kalshi drew more than $100 million in bets on who will win in October alone.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, another prediction market – which is not available to US citizens – saw US election betting volume on its platform reach more than $2 billion last month, The Block reported.
The Iowa poll surveyed 808 voters between Oct. 28 and 31, with a margin of error of 3.4 points.
The results marked a sharp change from September, when the same poll showed Trump ahead by four points.
Read the original article on Business Insider
