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The final polls for the 2024 presidential election season have been released.
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They show that neither Harris nor Trump have broken out in swing states.
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The candidates also remain virtually the same nationally.
The election map for this year has been determined for a long time.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will likely determine whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins.
The polls in these seven states have been close for months. And that hasn’t changed with 24 hours to go.
The latest set of New York Times/Siena College polls in each state showed Harris narrowly leading among likely voters in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Harris and Trump are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Trump has a four-point lead over Harris.
Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina are all Sun Belt states where economies have grown particularly large. When President Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, he trailed Trump in Georgia and Nevada, but Harris quickly made those states competitive.
In Georgia, Harris leads 48% to 47%, according to the Times poll. She has slightly larger advantages in North Carolina (48% to 46%) and Nevada (49% to 46%).
Black voters will play a key role in Georgia and North Carolina, where they make up a significant portion of the electorate. Biden won Georgia by a razor-thin margin in 2020, while Trump narrowly won North Carolina that year.
In Georgia, more than four million voters cast ballots early, and just over a million of those voters were black, according to data from the Georgian foreign minister’s office. And in North Carolina — where Democrats haven’t won at the presidential level since Barack Obama’s victory in 2008 — there has been a concerted effort to boost turnout in the party’s strongholds in the Charlotte and Raleigh areas.
Latino voters will be critical in Nevada, where issues like housing affordability and inflation have driven the political conversation and given Trump hope he can turn around the state, which hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 .
Among the northern “Blue Wall” states, which are especially crucial for Harris, there is still no clear leader in the battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
In Wisconsin, Harris leads 49% to 47%, while Michigan (47% to 47%) and Pennsylvania (48% to 48%) both scored tied in the Times poll. Harris has campaigned to gain support from working-class, minority and union voters in these areas. Trump has tried to insert some of these voters into his column, aware that any small shift in their support could be decisive in an already close contest.
Biden won all three Blue Wall battlegrounds in 2020.
Some Democrats are concerned that Trump could make another breakthrough in the Midwest as he did in 2016, but the new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed Harris with a three-point lead in GOP-leaning Iowa. which could mean the vice president will make an appearance. strong in the Blue Wall.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, where Latino voters will once again take center stage, the former president’s four-point lead is his largest among the seven states surveyed by the Times.
Arizonans have consistently cited the economy and immigration as two of their top issues — which favor Trump — but concerns about democracy and reproductive rights are also top issues for voters. And the last two topics are very useful for Harris.
There is also a generational divide in Arizona that is currently helping Trump in a state that Biden narrowly won in 2020.
In the Times/Siena poll of likely Arizona voters, Harris led among voters 18 to 29 (55% to 41%) and 30 to 44 (50% to 44%), but Trump had advantages among voters from 45 to 64 years (53%). % to 42%) and 65 years and older (51% to 43%).
The gender gap in swing states, meanwhile, reflects the deep divide in national opinion polls. According to the latest NBC News poll, Harris wins female voters by 16 points (57% to 41%). Trump had an 18-point lead among male voters (58% to 40%).
And with the candidates tied in the latest NBC poll of registered voters (49% to 49%), it could ultimately come down to who votes in greater numbers: women or men.
In early voting in swing states so far, women have outvoted men, but it remains unclear whether this trend will continue until Election Day.
Read the original article on Business Insider
