Three Red Sox free agent targets that would fill needs and fit budget originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
When it comes to predicting free agent contracts, few are better than The Athletic’s Tim Britton. Using historical comparisons and analyzing WAR totals, Britton provides a solid framework for what a given player could expect on the open market.
Reading through Britton’s predictions for the class of 2025, it seems unlikely the Red Sox will seriously explore deals for Juan Soto (13 years, $611 million) or Corbin Burnes (seven years, $217 million). But a few other names stand out for their combination of meeting a need without blowing the payroll.
As much as we’d like to see the Red Sox return to their free-spending ways, the reality is they’ll likely start with baby steps, so let’s project accordingly.
In that spirit, here are three names Britton highlights that should fit the Red Sox from a roster and budget perspective, with his projections in parentheses.
1. Max Fried (five years, $140 million)
Even after extending a $21 million qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta, the Red Sox need to add an arm to the top of their rotation. Perhaps no one fits the bill better than Fried, a southpaw who spent his entire career with the Braves and has twice finished in the top five of the NL Cy Young Award voting.
The 30-year-old pitched in the same high school rotation as Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito, who is lobbying his former Harvard-Westlake teammate to come to Boston. The two-time All-Star is 73-36 with a lifetime ERA of 3.07, and he also has a ton of postseason experience.
Red Sox owner John Henry has long been against big free agent deals for starting pitchers, but getting Fried for less than $30 million per year is a relative bargain.
2. Teoscar Hernandez (three years, $69 million)
The Red Sox could have signed Hernandez last winter, but they lost him to the Dodgers for a one-year deal. They can correct that now.
With Tyler O’Neill likely leaving in free agency, the Red Sox have an opening for a right-handed outfielder, and Hernández would be perfect. The 32-year-old has hit at least 25 home runs in each of the past four seasons, including a career-high 33 this year when he made his second All-Star team.
In fact, he might be the most prototypical Fenway Park hitter in baseball. He owns more home runs at Fenway (14) than any other road park, and he has made no secret of his love of hitting here. Coming off a postseason in which he hit three home runs and drove in 12 during LA’s run to a title, he would provide proven, reliable right-handed thunder alongside Rafael Devers for short years and relatively few dollars.
3. David Robertson (one year, $14 million)
The Red Sox have done quite well lately with aging relievers on short-term deals, whether it was a one-year deal from Adam Ottavino in 2021 after a trade with the Yankees, or two-year deals for Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen that just expired. The 39-year-old Robertson could play a similar role this winter as Craig Breslow looks to rebuild Boston’s bullpen.
The Red Sox need weapons and leaders, and Robertson fills the bill. Robertson, the last active member of the 2009 World Series champion Yankees, improbably recorded one of the highest strikeout rates of his career (33.5 percent) with the Rangers.
His cutter remains one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, as evidenced by the remarkable two-game stretch in June when he was called upon to face Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman twice, striking out both times.
For a year, the Red Sox can afford any amount, and Robertson would provide stability and reliability to a bullpen in need of an overhaul.
