It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we only have a very limited amount of time to observe and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear – Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be – if at all.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys offense remains dysfunctional (20th in points per game after leading the league last season), and Dak Prescott is likely going to IR with a hamstring injury. Lamb is also dealing with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, putting his status in Week 10 into question.
Lamb was a mild fantasy disappointment as the WR5 in fantasy points per game after being drafted as the WR1 in most leagues. But he has scored a whopping 43 goals in the last three games, and his volume only took off in the second half of last season. Lamb saw a target percentage of 32.8%, a first read target percentage of 41.2% and a target target percentage of 78.6% from Cooper Rush last season. He averaged 9.5 targets, 82 yards and 16.7 fantasy points over six games with Dallas’ backup QB.
Lamb remains a top-10 WR without Prescott, but his ceiling drops. He also has a tough matchup this week against a Philadelphia secondary that has given up the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks. The Cowboys have a low implied total of 17.25 points this week, and Lamb’s shoulder has been bumped. Expectations should be lowered accordingly.
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Caleb Williams & DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
Williams performed strongly in London, but only managed 5.7 YPA with a TD:INT ratio of 2:4 over four official road races. He has recorded an impressive 20 sacks in those four games. He has averaged 189.2 passing yards with a TD:INT ratio of 3:4 over six games this season when not facing a bottom two pass defense in DVOA.
Williams ranks last in attainable target speed outside the pocket, while struggling mightily with downfield accuracy. The rookie has a 43.1 completion percentage and has managed just 5.1 YPA under pressure, which is often credited to Chicago’s offensive line. We’ve seen more growth from Bryce Young over the past two weeks, although Williams will have a very favorable home game on Sunday.
Moore is the WR36 in fantasy points per game and has not reached 11.5 fantasy points in any game this season. He ran 100% of routes last week, but saw fewer targets than Keenan Allen and had fewer receiving yards than Rome Odunze. The rookie wideout has seen a marked increase in usage since Chicago’s farewell, and Moore appears to be as frustrated as any player in the league.
Some panic is certainly justified, but not all hope is lost. Moore is the WR15 in expected fantasy points, and his upcoming schedule looks very favorable. Moore just needs Williams to play better.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Worthy failed to knock down either of his two targets on Monday night, with his inability to stay in bounds costing the Chiefs a long touchdown. The rookie finished with negative 10 yards from scrimmage. Worthy hasn’t produced while seeing higher targets since Rashee Rice went down, ranking among the bottom in yards per route despite Patrick Mahomes throwing to him in an Andy Reid offense. Mahomes’ completion percentage has dropped 25% this season when targeting Worthy. Worthy appears to be Reid’s latest gadget player experiment, unable to beat the press or run a full route tree.
Additionally, DeAndre Hopkins emerged as Mahomes’ preferred wide receiver during his second game in Kansas City, when he saw the same number of targets (nine) as the rest of KC’s WRs combined. Worthy will certainly have peak weeks in this offense, but that makes him a classic ‘better on the best ball’ player for now.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Waddle had fantasy managers in a panic last week, but now they may be in the corner dealing with it. Waddle caught a touchdown on Sunday, but he also took another hit, seeing just two targets and finishing with negative receiving yards thanks to the comical loss of 23 yards on the final play of the game.
Tua Tagovailoa’s average intended air yards (5.5) is nearly half a yard lower than any other quarterback this season (Patrick Mahomes’ 5.9 is the second-lowest). De’Von Achane has emerged as Miami’s No. 2 receiver, while Jonnu Smith has a higher target share (19.4%) than Waddle (13.7%!) in games with Tagovailoa this season.
Waddle has seen just 12% of targets since Miami’s farewell, and the Dolphins have the league’s third-lowest neutral passing percentage over the past month despite Tagovailoa’s return. Waddle looks like another peak week-dependent wideout with a much lower floor than expected given his ADP of around pick 40. He gets a potentially favorable matchup indoors against the Rams on Monday night, but Waddle’s new role is very concerning.
