Last week’s Make or Break article focused mainly on players taking on a higher workload with injury opportunities and creative lineup strategies – shout out to Cade Oton!
This week’s article focuses on players in clear, defined roles, but potentially brutal matchups in Week 10 that might make you hesitant to turn to them.
There is no doubt that the players on this list have a clear advantage, but what is our confidence level and are we willing to take the risk?
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
I don’t often include quarterbacks in this column, but I felt compelled to talk about Nix this week. As the season progressed, I found myself becoming an undercover Nix supporter. I say supporter because I’m not quite at the level of “truther” – I won’t go that far – but it’s hard to deny Nix’s strengths from a fantasy perspective. His rushing advantage has been huge this season. Nix has the fifth-most rushing attempts, fifth-most rushing yards and third-most rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. What’s even more impressive is that he’s been able to maintain that level of production on the ground while being evasive in the pocket and only taking 15 sacks. By comparison, Daniel Jones, who has a similar level of attempts and yardage, has been sacked 27 times.
After the first four games of the season, Nix’s lowest fantasy output was 14 points with a 30-point ceiling, and he finished among the top 10 quarterbacks three times. As he has gained more experience, he has become more of a ‘make’ than a ‘break’ player. However, that could change this week against Kansas City.
Will Nix to make or break your line-up in week 10?
The Chiefs’ fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks are fairly average, ranking 15th in points allowed. That number doesn’t tell the whole story, because their statistics are somewhat skewed. They rank in the top 10 in passing touchdowns and passing yardage allowed, an impressive feat considering their schedule included the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, 49ers and Buccaneers. In a perfect world, you would have taken Nix off waivers and had the flexibility to stash him for upcoming favorable games instead of starting him against Kansas City.
If you roster Nix or pick him up recently on waivers, you could actually face parting issues at quarterback, making Nix your best option. Kansas City’s defense could make things difficult for Nix, potentially limiting him, as we saw against the Jets in Week 4, where he had just 12 completions for 64 yards and his worst rushing performance of the season with five attempts for only 3 yards.
We should also keep in mind that Denver’s defense is one of the stronger units in the league, so this will likely be a low-scoring game with a point total of 41.5. I’m pro-Nix, but he’s playing extremely risky this week.
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Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Mason Rudolph has given Tennessee some courage, but Tennessee is still a complete mess. Despite the difficulties, it has been somewhat welcoming from a fantasy perspective. I discussed the upside of Tony Pollard in my Pulse Check article earlier this week and Pollard isn’t the only player with potential. After a rough patch, Ridley’s targets have rebounded, with target share up significantly since Rudolph’s start and DeAndre Hopkins trade.
Over the past two games, Ridley has had 15 receptions on 23 targets for over 200 yards. Volume is no longer an issue; the only thing potentially holding Ridley back is his ability to capitalize on it. Touchdowns have been scarce, which is concerning for a player like Ridley, who thrives on touchdowns and yardage rather than receptions. Now, Ridley faces a tough matchup in Week 10 against the LA Chargers.
Will Ridley to make or break your line-up in week 10?
No quarterback has thrown for more than 257 yards against the Chargers this season. There’s a good chance Rudolph doesn’t make strong volume, and there’s another problem: It’s possible Will Levis could return this week. Ridley’s path to success is continued dominance in targets for a major outing this week, and the potential is there. While there were struggles against the Chargers, solid performances also emerged. Last week, Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy both had over 70 yards, with Tillman scoring a touchdown. The week before, Chris Olave had eight receptions and over 100 yards. Ridley could absolutely benefit from a heavy workload and still thrive this week.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
It has been a difficult season overall for Dowdle. He started in an ugly committee with Elliott, and neither was a viable fantasy option. As the season progressed he moved up the ranks and in Week 5 he finally got a solid workload with 20 carries for 87 yards plus a receiving touchdown. Unfortunately, injuries, illness and a bye week stalled his progress before he returned in Week 9 to finish as the overall RB9.
Just as you were starting to feel somewhat comfortable with Dowdle, the Dallas offense descends further into chaos. Dak Prescott suffered a torn hamstring and will miss an extended period of time. CeeDee Lamb is also struggling with an injury. If the Dallas offense as a whole is affected, the run game could struggle. Dowdle may have volume, but limited yardage and touchdown options.
Will Dowdle to make or break your line-up in week 10?
There is a potential salvation here. Dowdle has had strong receiving work. Although he only has three touchdowns this season, they have all come through the air. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Cooper Rush at quarterback either. While the sample size is limited, Rush was not inclined to settle during his five-game stint in 2022.
Much to Ezekiel Elliott’s dismay, Dowdle is clearly the best defenseman in Dallas and should continue as the frontrunner. However, with Dowdle’s lack of upside and a tough matchup against Philadelphia’s defense, he is an extremely risky player in Week 10.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
We’ve had quite a string of touchdowns with Thomas and touchdowns heading into Week 9. Before last week’s game, Thomas Jr. scored four touchdowns in the previous five games, excelling with efficiency. Unfortunately for Thomas, if those touchdowns don’t come, the floor could be a bit ugly due to Trevor Lawrence’s inconsistent volume. Last week, his two receptions on four targets for 22 yards against the Eagles were a harsh reminder of this.
On Jacksonville’s defense, Philadelphia’s defense has taken a turn. We knew going into the season that the young team would need time to develop, and Jacksonville wasn’t the first or last casualty. This week, however, the Jaguars face a Minnesota defense that is moving in the opposite direction. After a strong start that had opposing quarterbacks’ heads spinning, the Vikings’ defense has become highly exploitable (not counting last week’s dominance over the Colts). To make matters worse, Lawrence is dealing with a shoulder injury and likely won’t play in Week 10.
Will Thomas to make or break your line-up in week 10?
Last week we saw an increase in volume from Evan Engram, which was expected due to Christian Kirk’s injury. However, for the Jags to succeed in the passing game, they need to push the volume on Thomas. While Jacksonville was able to remain fairly competitive with Philadelphia last week, the defense was still stripped by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. The Vikings will also likely take advantage of the Jags’ defense, forcing Jacksonville to play catch-up, which should benefit Thomas.
I have some faith that Lawrence is pushing the volume…but with MacJones? Technically, we’ve never seen Jones with a player with Thomas’ talent. Maybe Jones will lighten it up Alabama style, but I’m having a hard time getting on board. Thomas is definitely leaning more towards bust potential this week.
There is a path to volume, and given the goals, Thomas can thrive. However, the risk level is extreme this week.
