Usually my Pulse Check column is an upbeat place where we talk about up and coming players or positive production, and whether or not we can rely on it. This week’s article is a small little bit different.
Receivers were downright ugly this week before the afternoon games. Maybe Ja’Marr Chase has sucked up all the fantasy points and left the remaining elite talent with nothing to work with. When the top-scoring receivers include names like Marquez Valdes-Scanting – who I mentioned in my early pickups video – Tylan Wallace, Devaughn Vele, Adonai Mitchell and Mack Hollins, there’s a big problem.
It’s not unusual for positions to have a bad week, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen big names flop, and many of these names aren’t just dealing with their own issues. Quarterback injuries and disappointing performances impact receivers across the board. Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins and Brian Thomas all finished with less than 10 points (and Deebo Samuel just topped 10).
Is this a sign of things to come?
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Let’s start with the least concerning performance of the week. Jefferson had five receptions on nine targets for 48 yards in a very unusual game. Outside of a few tough games, Jacksonville’s defense has generally been a treat for quarterbacks and wide receivers. The Jags have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the fifth-most to opposing wide receivers heading into the week. Honestly, I expected this to be a top-10 performance from Sam Darnold, and Jefferson’s best outing of the season, so his 7.3 fantasy points were extremely disappointing.
Although TJ Hockenson saw a big increase in targets with nine, Jefferson’s workload was still similar to his normal usage – it was the limited yardage and lack of a touchdown that made the day so disappointing from a fantasy perspective. Jefferson remains the dominant force in the Vikings offense.
However, there are some concerns about Jefferson’s progress regarding Darnold’s recently messy play.
Pulse check: Are Darnold’s true colors starting to show?
Darnold has had turnovers of late and the early season stability is quickly diminishing. The good news is that Jefferson’s volume shouldn’t be an issue going forward. The bad news is that Darnold’s lack of elite play puts a slight limit on Jefferson’s ceiling. That said, Jefferson’s capped ceiling is still better than the vast majority of receivers. In a season where elite wide receivers have vastly underperformed across the board, Jefferson has remained one of the most consistent players. Any restrictions going forward are minor compared to what we see across the league.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
We go from low concern for Justin Jefferson to someone hanging on by a thread: Malik Nabers. At the start of the week, Nabers finished outside the top 25 receivers for three straight weeks, yet he was still among the top five receivers this week. The logic was reasonable: Carolina’s defense was generally friendly this season, and the WR1s facing the Panthers had no issues with volume.
Objectives were not the problem for Nabers this week as he had ten. Unfortunately, he only caught six at 50 yards. The last time we saw Nabers catch a touchdown was in Week 3, and it appears that early-season flourish – when he finished as WR1 for three straight weeks – was a mirage. Daniel Jones simply doesn’t seem capable of helping Nabers reach his full potential.
Pulse check: Is it time to stop seeing Nabers as a WR1?
In theory, sheer volume could push Nabers back into the top 10. The Giants are heading into a much-needed bye week, after which they will have a very pass-friendly schedule for the remainder of the fantasy season. However, ten goals alone will not get you there. To perform as a WR1, Nabers needs enough volume to get strong distance And safe touchdown opportunities. It’s hard to imagine Daniel Jones suddenly turning things around and delivering touchdowns to the entire receiving corps. While we shouldn’t panic about Nabers’ level on the bench, we should lower expectations for the rest of the season.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
For every ounce of concern I have about Malik Nabers’ progress, multiply that by 100 for my overall panic about DJ Moore. The problem with Moore isn’t just about the quarterback. Target share is a major concern as we reach a critical, potential point of no return for Moore. Moore hasn’t surpassed five fantasy points since Week 5, and that Week 5 performance was his only WR1 finish of the season and one of only two double-digit fantasy point games.
Matt Harmon and Dalton Del Don may have their coping corner in The Fantasy Football Forecast, but if I could create a spot beyond that of the coping corner, Moore would be center stage.
It’s time we come to terms with Chicago’s offense. Prior to the bye week, when they were on a hot streak and the offense was clicking, they simply took advantage of a series of weak defenses. Since the bye week, they have seen tougher games and that won’t stop. The remaining schedule includes all of Chicago’s games within the NFC North, with a tough matchup against San Francisco and only one favorable matchup against Seattle.
Pulse check: Have we really reached a point of no return with Moore?
I really don’t see a path to success for Moore unless Caleb Williams makes a dramatic leap in his development. This is not meant negatively about Williams; he’s a rookie doing new things behind a terrible offensive line and he still has room to grow. While it’s easy to look at him with disappointment compared to someone like Jayden Daniels, that’s just part of his process and a function of his environment. Unfortunately, that process means the receiving corps will struggle, and Moore simply can’t be trusted going forward.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas is another receiver who will likely continue to suffer quarterback woes for the remainder of the season with Trevor Lawrence potentially missing extended periods of time; Mac Jones will be BTJ’s quarterback for the foreseeable future.
We talked about this matchup earlier when discussing Jefferson. This was just a strange game between Minnesota and Jacksonville and despite every ounce of disappointment in Darnold, Jones was on another level of terrible, completing just 14 passes for 111 yards and throwing two interceptions. Evan Engram was the only viable fantasy asset, while the run game was ineffective. Thomas managed just two receptions for 12 yards.
Pulse check: Should we bench Thomas if he moves forward?
I’m struggling to see any scenario where Thomas can positively move forward with Jones at quarterback. Volume will be sparse and touchdowns will be non-existent. Next week’s game against Detroit could help the volume, but I simply can’t trust this offense in Jacksonville. After Detroit, the Jags have a bye week, followed by mostly tough passing matchups, except for one against Las Vegas.
If Lawrence is done for the season, maybe Thomas will be done too.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Hopkins had a disappointing day with just four receptions on five targets for 56 yards, but let’s cut to the chase: Hopkins catches a pass here.
Facing Patrick Surtain II is no easy task. The fact that Hopkins managed to produce something is a good sign. While Hopkins plays slightly fewer snaps than Xavier Worthy, the difference is not significant and the targets per snap are still clearly in Hopkins’ favor.
Pulse check: Is Hopkins the clear WR1 for Kansas City?
The Chiefs will face another tough pass defense next week against Buffalo. While the Bills’ pass defense is incredibly strong, it’s a different situation for Hopkins as he wouldn’t be overshadowed by a shutdown corner in this game. We can still feel comfortable with Hopkins as the Chiefs’ WR1 and should be confident starting him next week despite the challenging matchup.
