Catastrophic flooding is possible in parts of Central America. mudslides and loss of life and property as slow-moving Tropical Storm Sara hits Honduras, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rain, with up to 12 inches in isolated areas.
And parts of Florida could get a sampling next week.
Sara, the 18th named storm of the season, currently has maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, but is expected to weaken, lose circulation and possibly dissipate early next week.
AccuWeather forecasters said some remnants could join a front over the Gulf of Mexico and threaten Florida’s west coast with coastal flooding and thunderstorms. Conditions could push Sara back into a tropical storm, but the relatively cooler waters of the Gulf won’t be enough to allow the rapid intensification we see at Helene and Milton.
“The biggest threat in Florida will be heavy rain that could flood streets, highways and low-lying areas,” AccuWeather experts said. “The extent of the rain and flooding will depend on the intensity and forward speed of Sara.”
Meanwhile, the storm threatens to dump meters of rain on northern parts of Nicaragua and Honduras for days before moving to eastern parts of Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico, with the main downpour hitting northern Honduras and Nicaragua.
“This amount of rain will cause major flash flooding and mudslides with the potential for catastrophic loss of life and extensive damage,” warned Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.
➤ Spaghetti models for tropical depression nineteen
➤ Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather conditions by location
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 7 a.m. EST Friday, November 15:
Tropical Storm Sara: what you need to know
Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path from the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
-
Location: 16.1N 85.5W, approximately 40 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 205 miles east-southeast of Belize City
-
Maximum sustained wind: 50 km/h
-
Current movement: West at 9 km/h
-
Minimum central pressure: 998MB
How strong is Tropical Storm Sara and where is it headed?
At 7 a.m. EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 north and longitude 85.5 west. Sara is moving towards the west at a speed of 15 km/h. Continued westward motion with reduced forward speed is expected over the next day. A slow west-northwestward movement is forecast late Saturday.
On the forecast track, Sara’s center will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras until early Saturday, then approach the coast of Belize early on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to almost 80 km/h with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible in the coming days if the center of Sara north of Honduras remains above water.
Tropical storm force winds extend as far as 110 miles (170 kilometers) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 in).
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara
Watches, warnings issued
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Tropical Storm Warning:
-
The entire northern coast of Honduras
-
The Bay Islands of Honduras
-
The northern coast of Guatemala from the Honduras-Guatemala border west to Puerto Barrios
Will Tropical Storm Sara be the next hurricane to hit Florida?
Sara is expected to disappear or weaken drastically as it passes over Central America. The storm could potentially strengthen again after it enters the Gulf of Mexico, but relatively cooler water and wind shear will likely prevent the storm from intensifying, forecasters said.
Areas of Florida’s west coast could experience thunderstorms, heavy rain and coastal flooding by the middle of next week.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center
-
Until early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will likely cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding and mudslides over northern parts of Honduras.
-
Elsewhere in the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua and the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
-
Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras and the adjacent Bay Islands, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
-
The system is expected to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula late this weekend, where there is a risk of high winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates.
Current forecast: How strong can Tropical Storm Sara become?
-
From 4am EST: 45 km/h
-
60 hours: 40 km/h, inland
What impact could Tropical Storm Sara have?
RAINFALL: Between 10 and 20 inches of rain will fall through early next week, with isolated storms totaling about 30 inches in area over northern Honduras. These rainfalls will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
Elsewhere in the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua and the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 6 to 10 inches of rain early next week, with local totals around 6 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, which may be significant, along with the possibility of mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras and Guatemala in the coming days.
STORM CURRENT: A storm surge could raise water levels along the immediate coast in areas with onshore winds along the northern coasts of Honduras and Guatemala by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels. Near the coast the wave will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
National Hurricane Center Map: What Else Is and How Likely are They to Strengthen?
Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The shaded areas on a tropical scout map “indicate areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely it is that a system can develop where yellow is low, orange is middle and red is high.
The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue a tropical advisory until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare Rhome said.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. However, tropical storms can develop at any time.
The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS
What do the watches and warnings mean?
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the expected first appearance of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, usually within 48 hours.
What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download the app from your local site to ensure you’re always up to date with the news. And look here for our special subscription offers.
(This story has been updated with new information.)
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Storm Tracker: Tropical Storm Sara brings flooding. Florida securities?
