Each week during the 2024-2025 NBA season, we’ll dive deeper into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an effort to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction.
[Last week: Is home-court advantage in the NBA’s regular season dead?]
Fact or fiction: the NBA needs more three-point specialists
Last week, as we addressed the impact of increased three-point shooting on home field advantage, I reached out to Ryan Bernardoni (aka Dan Gercart 😉), who preached three-point shooting as a more accurate indicator of who will win. a game, and we got into a side conversation: If the team that makes the most 3s wins two-thirds of the time, shouldn’t the NBA embrace more 3-point specialists?
Take Milwaukee Bucks wing AJ Green, for example. He is an undrafted free agent out of Northern Iowa, where he shot 38% on seven three-point attempts per game over four seasons. He spent the last two years in Milwaukee’s system, playing on the edge of the rotation and shooting 41% from distance on 11 attempts per 36 minutes as the Bucks outscored opponents by 1.2 points per 100 possessions.
But to start this season, he was left out of the rotation and even received a “DNP coach’s decision” in the sixth game of the campaign, as Milwaukee started 1-5. Playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks head coach Doc Rivers played Green off the bench for a team-high 34 minutes. Green finished 7-for-9 from 3 and +5 in a game his team lost by two to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the league’s last undefeated team.
Green has been a mainstay of the rotation since then and Milwaukee has won three of its last five games, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points per 100 possessions in the sharpshooter’s limited minutes off the bench.
Now 1.2 points per 100 possessions may not sound like much, but over a full season, this is the baseline for a playoff team. And for a sofa it’s even better. If the Bucks can sustain leads for 20 minutes a night with a guy making less than 2% of the salary cap, why don’t more teams do this?
You saw it in Boston, where the Celtics inserted Sam Hauser into the rotation for two seasons and released him for 22 minutes a night last season, when the Celtics outscored their opponents with a team-best 14.2 points per 100 possessions in his minutes. Another undrafted four-year college product, Hauser hasn’t shot below 40% from 3 at any level (though he’s shooting 33% early this season).
Isaiah Joe is another one. The second-round pick spent two seasons in Philadelphia, where Rivers rarely played against him even as the 76ers outscored opponents by 1.3 points per 100 possessions in his minutes. This was a guy who shot 38% on nine three-point attempts per game in two seasons at Arkansas. The Oklahoma City Thunder picked Joe up off waivers in 2022 and immediately committed to playing him. Over the past three seasons, the Thunder have outscored opponents by 6.7 points per 100 possessions in Joe’s minutes.
Defense has been the concern for flamethrowers. Will they be forced into action and switched to some of the best ballhandlers in the world? That may be true, but anyone who watched Hauser on his way to the title last season can tell you that he weathered the attacks better than we expected. His size (6’2″) certainly helps.
The data shows that a marksman’s three-point shooting — the makes, plus the distance they generate — outweighs any defensive shortcomings. Our search yielded 48 players over the past five seasons who: a) were outside the top 20; b) earn less than 2% of the salary ceiling; c) a rotation cracked; d) took five three-pointers per 100 possessions; and e) made it 40%. They outscored their opponents by an average of 1.5 points per 100 possessions off the bench and played for teams that won an average of 48 games.
The question then becomes: are great shooters great teams, or are great teams great shooters? After all, teams chock-full of expensive talent are more likely to need a cheap shooter to fill out a rotation, and a cheap shooter is more likely to succeed in that rotation if he’s surrounded by expensive talent. It’s a question that may not have a definitive answer and doesn’t really need one, because if a great team can not only tread water but breathe easier with one of these players on the field, that’s all that matters.
Perception is the reason why many marksmen never get a fair shot. Sign him for his first defensive mistake and he never gets into a rhythm. Coaches may not be convinced that the math inevitably tilts toward winning. But they should. Play 15-20 minutes a night with an assassin so he can fire a handful of 3s, knock down a few and tip the count in your favor, because again, the team that makes the most 3s wins 67% of the time .
Duncan Robinson was one of these guys. The undrafted free agent shot 45% on eight three-point attempts per game in his second season, helping the Miami Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals. He signed a five-year deal worth $90 million in 2021, and his value suffered. That net rating in the playoffs (1.2 points per 100 possessions!) wasn’t worth all that much when it prevented the Heat from paying for harder-to-find contributions.
The Celtics and Thunder paid Hauser and Joe half of what the Heat handed Robinson. We’ll see if they meet that value or if they’ll be the first to leave once big luxury tax bills arrive for two of the best teams in the league. Boston essentially drafted its Hauser replacement, selecting Baylor Scheierman, who shot 39% on six three-point attempts per game in five collegiate seasons, with the last pick of the first round.
And that’s the thing: these guys aren’t that hard to find. Last season alone, the NCAA produced 23 players 6-foot-10 or taller who shot better than 40% on five or more three-point attempts per game. One of them, Jaylen Wells, was taken in the second round by the beleaguered Memphis Grizzlies, who give him 26 minutes per night, and he rewards them with a pair of three-pointers per game on 37% shooting.
Another six G League regulars are 6-7 or taller and shot better than 40% on eight or more three-point attempts per 100 possessions last season. Matt Ryan is shooting 40% on 9.4 three-point attempts per game over three G League seasons. It’s why he’s still getting calls from the NBA, including the one from the New York Knicks last week; just none of his previous teams committed to playing him 15 minutes per game.
Ryan came closest last season, averaging 13.9 minutes per game for the New Orleans Pelicans. He shot 45% on 8.4 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, and when he was on the court, they outscored opponents by… 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Will Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau, infamous for his astuteness, play his newfound sharpshooter enough to bend the math even further in his eighth-rated rating?
Because the math says it works. As much as you don’t want another player who shoots a ton of threes and plays half the defense, it has worked in theory and practice. Maybe not for everyone, but on average over time. You may not be able to find a sleek 3-and-D wing for under $3 million, but you can find a sleek Enough-3s-That-The-Defense-Is-Passable wing and probably develop a replacement behind him.
Provision: Fact. The NBA needs more 3-point specialists.
