The chances of the twelfth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are quickly slipping away as Tropical Storm Sara’s final track takes it further westward over land.
The changing path doesn’t change Sara’s timeline much, but it does have a significant impact on the storm’s potential impact on Florida.
A major Hurricane Sara was initially expected to have formed this weekend, but the storm’s changing path brought it closer to the coast and briefly over land, destroying any chances of rapid intensification.
Updates for Tropical Storm Sara: Hurricane Sara is unlikely to form, but Florida could still feel some damage by mid-week
Even if Tropical Storm Sara can survive a move across Central America this weekend, it may not have the winds and circulation to gain strength in the cooler Gulf of Mexico.
In a worst-case scenario, Florida could experience downpours and possibly severe thunderstorms by midweek as moisture from a fragmented Sara is carried across the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s a look at the latest timeline of Tropical Storm Sara.
Tropical Storm Sara timeline 10 a.m. Friday
Tropical Storm Sara’s eye path as of 10 a.m. Friday.
Tropical Storm Sara is moving along the Caribbean coast of Honduras and moving west at a speed of about 5 miles per hour. Sara will continue to follow that path until early Saturday before it begins to approach Belize.
Northern Honduras is expected to receive between 6 and 10 inches of rain early next week as a result of the meandering storm. Nearby areas, including the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua and the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, will see between 6 and 10 inches of rain.
Tropical Storm Sara timeline 7pm Saturday
Tropical Storm Sara will finally begin a west-northwest track toward Belize as it passes over the Bay Islands.
Tropical Storm Sara timeline 7pm Sunday
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to make landfall in Belize early Sunday. By Sunday evening, the storm will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression as its center approaches the Mexico-Guatemala border.
Tropical Storm Sara timeline 7pm Monday
The tropical depression will reach the Gulf of Mexico on Monday evening. From here, the remaining strength of the system will determine whether it is steered northeast or east-northeast.
A stronger, better organized system will take a turn that will ultimately lead it toward South Florida. A weaker storm will move further north and could end up in the central Gulf Coast.
Tropical Storm Sara timeline 7pm Tuesday
Tropical Storm Sara’s eye path as of 10 a.m. Friday.
The National Hurricane Center’s current timeline ends Monday, but AccuWeather’s extended forecast shows Sara will reach the central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday evening.
Tropical Storm Sara timeline 7pm Wednesday
Tropical Storm Sara, or its remnants, will arrive in the US on Wednesday. How and where the system will affect the US will depend on how the country enters the Gulf this weekend and to what extent it can regain its control over the Gulf.
This article originally appeared in Pensacola News Journal: Tropical Storm Sara timeline: When will Florida see impact?
