Prediction markets had a breakthrough moment during the presidential election, when they proved to be more accurate than most polls.
So now that several cryptocurrencies have soared since Donald Trump won the election, perhaps prediction markets can accurately answer the question, “How high will Bitcoin go?”
On the crypto-based Polymarket, where the so-called French whale delivered a huge post-election windfall, bettors have several options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at around $91,000.
For a contract on the price that Bitcoin will reach in November, there is a 72% chance that it will reach $95,000. The price with the next highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract asking whether Bitcoin will rise above $90,000 on November 22 shows a 60% probability, while yet another contract asking whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in November has only a 42% probability.
On the Kalshi prediction market, a contract asking how high Bitcoin will get before 2026 shows 52% odds at $125,000 or higher and 44% odds at $150,000 and higher.
If prediction markets aren’t your thing, and you prefer a forecast from a more conventional Wall Street analyst, there’s Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors.
Of the forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his call on the stock market in 2023 proved to be the most accurate.
As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could reach $150,000 by the end of the year. Although that seems less likely now, with only a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week that “six figures” is still possible before the end of the year with more profits in 2025 in 2026.
“I think Bitcoin will become a lot more relevant after the halving, and I think as regulatory overhang may decrease, there will be a lot of upside,” he explained.
Bitcoin is up 32% so far in November alone and has more than doubled this year. To reach $100,000, the price would have to rise another 10%.
But there are signs that the post-election rally is stalling as the stock market faces a losing week. Still, key components of the “Trump trade” are rising, such as Tesla shares, government bond yields and the dollar.
Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, the founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, said Fortune in the past week that he is optimistic that Bitcoin will soon reach the $100,000 milestone.
“I feel good that we will have achieved it by the end of the year,” he said. “Quite possibly by the end of the month, but we’ll see.”
This story originally appeared on Fortune.com
