One of the great things about sports is the unpredictable nature of future events.
Great new heroes can rise from the clashes between bitter rivals and cement themselves as the names of tomorrow, just as the older generation can slowly fade into obscurity from season to season.
The very fact that we simply don’t know what to expect is why we religiously tune in to keep up with the ins and outs of a 24/7 competition.
One such element, such as scoring efficiency, can also be unpredictable and dramatically change the course of events, tilting towards either our pleasure or our disappointment depending on which side you choose.
Five players and one team stand out this year for deviating from their regular path. Since it’s still early in the season, it’s time to take a look at them and think about the overarching question: is this a thing?
James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers
’24-25: 37.9 FG%, 31.0 3FG%, 54.1 TS%
’23-24: 42.8 FG%, 38.1 3FG%, 61.2 TS%
The former MVP has seen his efficiency drop significantly in the early parts of this season, and the problem is almost everywhere.
The 6-foot-4 Harden has always been built like a tank, using brute strength to get to the rim while converting nearly 64% of his shots within three feet over the course of his career.
Before the weekend, Harden had dropped to 53.3% on the year, meaning he was actually blowing half of his shots near the basket – a worrying drop for a player who practically lived there to make mistakes and knock down shots. about taller opponents.
Harden is now 35 and his legs have a lot of playing time. When you include both the regular season and the playoffs, which add up to more than 43,500 minutes, it’s no surprise that Harden is feeling the sting of a body that can no longer take the punishment.
This doesn’t mean the All-Star guard isn’t productive. Despite his shooting issues, he is still putting up 20.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game, numbers that could easily get him through the entire season. But the lack of efficiency and athletic pop are real concerns.
Is this a thing?
Yes and no. Harden’s athletic decline will cost him some efficiency points around the rim, but he’s smart enough to find ways to compensate. The three-point shot will likely bounce back, which he could lean into more and get back on track. But his game has changed, and the sooner we accept that, the better.
Nikola Vucević, Chicago Bulls
’24-25: 59.3 FG%, 44.6 3FG%, 67.9 TS%
’23-24: 48.4 FG%, 29.4 3FG%, 54.0 TS%
Not a single Bulls fan alive will call Vučević’s 2021 acquisition a victory. The Bulls ultimately signed Wendell Carter Jr. as well as the rights to Franz Wagner and Jett Howard.
What they got in return was an inconsistent center who could never quite master his role, despite the fact that his strengths were overwhelmingly on the offensive side of the ball.
This season, Vučević is playing All-Star caliber basketball, hitting everything from everywhere, including a nearly 13 percentage point increase in his conversion rate around the basket.
Some might argue that the floor has opened up with DeMar DeRozan’s departure, giving the Montenegrin more room to operate. There might be some truth to that logic, though it hardly explains his sudden explosion as a three-point shooter.
The Bulls should hope that some teams acquire Vučević’s new numbers so they can take him out in a trade and get something in return that can help with a future rebuild, which has yet to happen.
Is this a thing?
No. Vučević will ultimately have a better season than last year due to his excellent start, but unless he makes a drastic change at age 34 to become the center version of Kevin Durant, his numbers will be completely unsustainable. Make the best of this situation, Chicago.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Orlando Magic
’24-25: 33.7 FG%, 23.4 3FG%, 47.0 TS%
’23-24: 46 FG%, 40.6 3FG%, 60.2 TS%
The world went crazy when the Denver Nuggets failed to retain their starting shooting guard, leading to a barrage of criticism about their internal process.
Orlando was simultaneously celebrated for signing the two-way wing for $66 million over three years.
As it stands now, with Denver giving Christian Braun the spot previously occupied by Caldwell-Pope and Braun flourishing in that role, the tables have seemingly turned.
Caldwell-Pope is no longer playing against Nikola Jokić, the best playmaker in the NBA, and he’s playing on a team that still needs a reliable point guard to get the offense moving. That explains some of this, but not all.
The fact is, Caldwell-Pope is in the midst of an epic shooting slump, making it nearly impossible to gauge his true abilities due to the aforementioned factors.
Is this a thing?
Yes. Caldwell-Pope benefited greatly from playing with Jokić, who passed him the ball 12.3 times per game last year, providing a reliable basis for what to expect when he took the floor. That predictable presence is now gone and it will affect his play. That doesn’t mean he won’t improve as the season progresses, but his elite shooting likely won’t return this year.
Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves
’24-25: 50.7 FG%, 38.2 3FG%, 62.4 TS%
’23-24: 47.2 FG%, 31.1 3FG%, 56.9 TS%
If you think Randle’s efficiency difference is minimal, you’re not necessarily wrong.
However, this comes down to expectations. Randle came into the frontcourt of Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, meaning spacing wouldn’t matter much.
But Randle has made a ton of shots from outside (including a game-winning 3-pointer on Sunday), converted a higher number of shots near the rim and generally looked much more at home in Minnesota’s offense than expected.
That doesn’t mean he was a seamless fit, as the Wolves play a level or two lower than last year. But Randle has somehow found success within a confusing roster structure, highlighting Anthony Edwards and leaning into the role of secondary scorer. That seems to have benefited him.
Is this a thing?
Oddly enough, yes. Randle appears to be taking a year ahead and a year off from his efficiency numbers, and it appears this season is underway. He has found a place within the attacking structure and has been given the green light to create more, leading to a boost in confidence and shot-making. Go figure!
Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder
’24-25: 30.9 FG%, 21.9 3FG%, 39.6 TS%
’23-24: 46.8 FG%, 40.8 3FG%, 61.3 TS%
Yes, yes. Caruso is a defensive connector and not a high-scoring shooter, so why are we looking at his specific efficiency?
For starters, because the disparity is huge and also because of the expectations of being added to a loaded Thunder squad, where open shots are easy to find, all within the flow of the offense.
All of that has played out and Caruso seems too open, with 43.6% of his shots considered ‘wide open’, meaning the nearest defender is more than two meters away. On those shots, Caruso only converted 20.8%, an unfathomably low number.
This follows the best shooting season of his career, making him a much more dangerous weapon.
Fortunately, his role is low and the Thunder can mount an efficient offense without him. It’s not a big deal – at least not until he starts making the same shots in the playoffs.
Is this a thing?
Despite the pitiful percentages… not yet. Caruso has made 55 shots this season, including 32 three-pointers. The sample size is so small that a week of consistent shooting could swing the percentages in his favor. If he’s still struggling to this extent in mid-January, then it’s time to worry.
The Sacramento Kings
’24-25: 33.1 3FG%, 24.6 assists, 34.4 3PA
’23-24: 36.6 3FG%, 28.3 assists, 39.3 3PA
Remember the space Vučević freed up with DeMar DeRozan’s departure? Well, the Kings might have adopted that.
DeRozan was brilliant for Sacramento, but he remains an absolute space hog and a heavy isolation scorer who does take over the offense. That’s great when he’s converting at a high rate, making mistakes and setting up teammates.
But it does come at the cost of making the ball move less. The Kings, who have both De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis to train people, now rank 22nd in the league in assists, when they should have gone in the opposite direction.
Their three-point shooting has also declined. They ranked third in three-point attempts last season, but ranked 23rd in that department this season while barely hitting a 31% efficiency rate.
Of course, this isn’t just about DeRozan. The Kings have embraced midrange and are actively pursuing it more than last year. Will that cost them wins at the end of the season? It depends on how many close games DeRozan and Fox save them, but otherwise the answer should be yes.
Sacramento has had an explosive offensive identity in recent seasons and is looking to maintain it by adding volume through DeRozan. Having three scorers who can all give you 25 points when needed is indeed a luxury, but is it a luxury the Kings can afford if it comes at the expense of the unpredictability of their offense?
Is this a thing?
There is a world where this works, as long as DeRozan is able to scale back as the season progresses, especially allowing Keegan Murray’s shooting skills to shine. If not, this could be something, and that something may not be well received by Kings fans.
