Ahead of the fantasy football playoffs, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers.
Raiser: Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Jennings continued his strong play in Week 11. He again led the 49ers with 11 goals and totaled 10 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. Jennings has now played three games this season without Deebo Samuel Sr. or Brandon Aiyuk and in these games he averages 11.3 targets and 116 yards per game. He has now earned at least a 33% target share in consecutive games and has functioned as the clear No. 1 receiver ahead of Samuel in the 49ers’ offense.
Jennings earns goals in important situations. In Week 11, he had six third-place targets, and over the past two weeks he has seen 42% of his third- or fourth-place targets. These are the money drops in the NFL where you go to your most trusted player and lately that has been Jennings for Brock Purdy. Jennings is rocketing up the fantasy rankings for the remainder of the season. Right now he’s in the top 15 for me, just behind DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin, but ahead of Zay Flowers and Davante Adams.
If you were able to acquire Jennings in recent weeks, congratulations, you have a league winner on your hands.
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Faller: D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
Swift had a solid fantasy day in Week 11. He earned 16 touches and converted those uses into 84 total yards and a touchdown. This marked the sixth time in his last seven games that Swift has surpassed at least 80 yards rushing and scored at least 11 fantasy points. All of this is great on the surface, but Swift’s underlying usage took a hit in week 11.
The Bears had a new play-caller in Thomas Brown last Sunday. Every time a new playcaller takes over, there will likely be a change in the way the offense is run and this usually means a change in player roles. This was the case for Chicago’s backfield in Week 11. Backup Roschon Johnson played 44% of the snaps on the season and earned 11 touches. Johnson handled two of the three goal-line carries and played on 100% of the two-minute offensive snaps. This led to Swift making just 48% of the team’s rushing attempts per Fantasy Life, his lowest total since Week 3. Despite the strong fantasy day, Swift is a fantasy faller in the rankings due to his reduced role in Week 11.
Riser: Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Unlike Swift, Odunze was among the Bears’ players who took advantage of new play-caller Thomas Brown on Sunday. Odunze ran 90% of Chicago’s routes in Week 11, converting that usage into a season-high target share of 32%. It was the fifth time this season that a Bears receiver managed at least 30% of the team’s targets and the second time Odunze was able to cross this elite volume threshold. Odunze turned this usage into six catches for 65 yards, and he was relied on twice on the Bears’ final drive in key situations, including a 21-yard catch on fourth down to extend the drive and set up the potential game-winning field goal to put. .
Not only was Odunze’s target volume on display under his new playcaller, but it was also used in encouraging ways. Odunze had six of his ten targets in the short areas of the field. Four of his targets were downfield and he connected on two of them for 37 yards. Odunze was also responsible for a team-high 53% of air yards in Week 11. This balance between short and deep goals is good to see. It provides a degree of consistency to his play each week.
This was just an example of one game where Brown made plays, so we can’t just assume that Week 11 will be Odunze’s usage going forward, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction.
Faller: Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews had his best usage of the season in Week 10. According to Player Profiler, he ran 85% of the Ravens routes on the season. This was the first time since week 2 that it was above 55%. Andrews turned that usage into seven season goals and racked up 15.8 fantasy points. He entered Week 11 with top-12 weekly finishes at the position in four of his last five games.
But there was a big reason for Andrews’ usage increase in Week 10. TE Isaiah was likely out for Baltimore, leading to a season-high usage rate for Andrews. However, Presumptive returned to the Ravens lineup in Week 11, and this crushed Andrews’ usage. Andrews ran just 58% of the team’s routes and saw just three targets. He likely returned to his usual role, running more than 50% of the team’s routes with just enough involvement to limit Andrews’ lead. Using Week 11 with Likely Back makes Andrews a touchdown-or-bust player moving forward; he’s no longer a must-start like he was in Week 10 without Likely.
Riser: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba had a career day in Week 9 before the Seahawks’ bye week, producing 180 yards and two touchdowns on a whopping 13 targets. He finished the week as the highest-scoring fantasy player across all positions for the first time in his career. We also saw Smith-Njigba operating the field a lot in this game, which wasn’t a typical role for him in the Seahawks’ offense. However, DK Metcalf was out in Week 10, so this likely had something to do with the change in Smith-Njigba usage.
But in Week 11, Metcalf returned to the lineup and Smith-Njigba retained a strong role. He led the team with 11 targets and 110 receiving yards. His role on the field diminished somewhat with Metcalf back, but not completely. On his first goal of the game, Smith-Njigba connected with Geno Smith for a 20-yard reception down the center of the field. He would earn two deep goals in this game.
Overall, Smith-Njigba seems to be getting involved in the offense more often, especially the way the first read reads. Smith-Njigba was the first goal on 30% of the Seahawks’ plays in Week 11, his second-highest in a game in which Metcalf has been active this season. The second-year receiver is on the rise as the fantasy playoffs approach.
