On Target is a periodic column where we examine statistics, trends and data points related to the men who catch football in our fantasy world.
Let’s dive in.
Where are Trey McBride’s touchdowns?
Every now and then I like to have fun with something I call the Diontae Johnson Award. It’s a nod to Johnson’s strange 2022 season, in which he racked up a whopping 147 goals but somehow never scored a touchdown.
Usually you identify that type of use and recognize the screaming buy-low opportunity. Positive regression is a concept that most fantasy managers now understand. But it’s also worth trying to understand why some players exceed their touchdown expectations, and some players fall short.
And this brings us to Trey McBride, Arizona’s hot third-year tight end.
McBride was a breakout player last year, getting hot in the second half and finishing as a TE9. He has persevered this year, ranking third in total points at the position and fourth in tight ends per game. McBride was the right answer in 2024.
He is also the current holder of the Diontae Johnson Award. He’s on 65 targets and still hasn’t secured a receiving touchdown.
The default position before digging further is to target this type of player. Volume is critical in fantasy football and eventually good players find the end zone, either by design or luck. Occam’s Razor is a powerful solver of fantasy dilemmas; the simplest explanation is often the best.
But there are two other possible explanations to consider. First, it’s easier for teams to run the ball than pass the ball in the red zone, when windows tighten and connections become more difficult. Some teams are outliers in this area; some franchise quarterbacks regularly throw in these crowded areas and do quite well. But will Kyler Murray and the Cardinals ever be that kind of team?
Murray has attempted just 29 passes in the red zone this year – which ranks 25th in the league. His nine touchdowns in this space rank 16th in the league. So there’s a smaller pie for McBride to share. If you want to narrow the range to within five, Murray ranks 16th in attempts (seven), although he does have four touchdowns (which ranks eighth).
Murray is currently having his best professional season. All of his indexed stats are well above league average; its accuracy has never been better.
But Murray will always be one of the smallest starters in the league at 6-foot-4. It would make intuitive sense that he is more of a weapon in the middle of the field than in the red area. And the Cardinals have an established identity up close, with James Conner being one of the best power runners in the league. Murray’s haste is still a weapon, too.
The upcoming schedule is about a month below average, with four tough matchups coming up for McBride. But if you can make the playoffs, McBride’s slate could push you over the top. He gets the Panthers and Rams the last two fantasy weeks — they rank first and fourth, respectively, in allowing points to tight ends.
Maybe McBride’s touchdown regression isn’t ready for your Thanksgiving meal just yet. But in a month it could be a nice Christmas present.
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Bears usage in Thomas Brown debut
As I’m sure you heard last week, the Bears fired embattled offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and put Thomas Brown in the play-calling chair. Chicago suffered a frustrating loss to the Packers when a field goal was blocked in the final second, but there were encouraging signs from the offense. Caleb Williams played his best game in a month. The offense made more proactive use of movement. Maybe it wasn’t a home run, but at least the Bears got on base.
Chicago typically uses a narrow target tree, but two player trends are worth mentioning. Rome Odunze played 82% of the snaps (and drew 10 goals) against Green Bay, a notable bump after the New England loss. And Cole Kmet scored over 90% for the second week in a row. Waldron was one of Gerald Everett’s last fans – remember, Kmet played less than half the snaps on opening day. Fortunately, that story is now over.
Odunze (6-65-0) and Kmet (3-42-0) weren’t exactly weekly winners with their Week 11 stats, but it’s a positive step. And Williams seemed much more comfortable with the game plan. Chicago may face the toughest schedule in the league going forward, but Odunze and Kmet can at least be useful depth pieces as we navigate hellish bye issues for Weeks 12 and 14.
Jauan Jennings, alpha in San Francisco
Earlier this year, we took an in-depth look at Jennings, trying to figure out if Signature Significance’s rules applied after his 11-175-3 loss to the Rams. We came to the conclusion that Jennings was the real deal, but injuries derailed the story a bit.
Jennings is now back, healthy and bolstered in San Francisco’s offense. He’s locked into the Brandon Aiyuk X role and has the confidence of play-caller Kyle Shanahan and quarterback Brock Purdy. Jennings regularly pulls the early read targets, and Purdy pulls the trigger in the tightest windows.
It’s time to give Jennings another award. He is the number 1 receiver here, the alpha, the priority.
It hasn’t been that close the last two weeks. Jennings has 22 targets, compared to just 13 for Deebo Samuel Sr.; Jennings has made 17-184-1 on his work, Samuel 9-84-0. For this year, Jennings has a 60.3% success rate on his goals; Samuel lags behind at 42.3%. It makes sense for Jennings to take over.
The fantasy market hasn’t quite made the switch yet: Samuel is still ranked 16th on the current board, while Jennings is 19th. But not only would that ranking have to be reversed, but there would probably have to be quite a bit of distance between Jennings and Aiyuk. Follow volume or follow efficiency, it doesn’t matter. Both routes bring you to the same conclusion.
