The penultimate week of the 2024 regular season has arrived.
This weekend there are three games between ranked teams and one of those games is the Big 12. No one is going to confuse the Big 12 with an elite conference this season, but it was extremely fun and extremely even. Nine teams are mathematically still alive for the conference title. If you like chaos, you’ll want some upsets in the last two weeks of the season.
BYU and Colorado are tied at 6-1 at the top of the conference and both head into Week 13. The Cougars are underdogs in third-place Arizona State, while Colorado is a slight favorite against a Kansas team that just won the BYU’s undefeated season has ended.
Here’s a look at what to watch in Week 13. (All times are Eastern and all odds are from BetMGM.)
Time: afternoon | Television: Fox | Line: Ohio State -13.5 | Total: 51.5
Here is Indiana’s big test.
The discussion of the College Football Playoff has been unfairly dominated by Indiana’s undefeated record against the teams on the schedule. The Hoosiers had a weak non-conference schedule and, well, a weak Big Ten conference schedule as well. Michigan or Washington is the best team the Hoosiers have beaten this season.
That conference schedule isn’t Indiana’s fault. And the Hoosiers don’t have any non-conference games scheduled, like a team that needs to show its schedule strength for the College Football Playoff because they haven’t been in the playoffs. After years of playing in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, we think the Hoosiers deserved a season where they didn’t have to play all three teams.
Indiana is powered by an efficient passing attack led by Heisman candidate Kurtis Rourke and a defense that forces nearly two turnovers per game. DB Amare Farrell has four interceptions, while defensive lineman Mikail Kamara has 9.5 sacks.
Ohio State comes into the game behind two starting offensive linemen following center Seth McLaughlin’s torn Achilles on Tuesday. The Buckeyes have done a fantastic job moving pieces on the offensive line after Josh Simmons’ injury to the left side. Can they also adequately replace the Alabama transfer?
The Buckeyes are giving up the fewest points per game of any team in college football after allowing just seven points in their last two games. Only Oregon scored more than 17 points against Ohio State all season. Indiana will need to score more than 17 to win.
Time: 3:30 PM | Television: Fox | Line: Colorado -3 | Total: 59.5
The Buffaloes are riding a four-game win streak at Arrowhead Stadium and will face a team that just ruined BYU’s undefeated season.
Colorado has scored at least 34 points in each of those wins, while Shedeur Sanders plays like one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Sanders is completing 73% of his passes and has already thrown for over 3,200 yards. If Colorado makes it to the Big 12 title game, he has a great opportunity to throw for over 4,000 yards before the postseason.
It’s a good thing that Sanders is picking apart opposing defenses, because Colorado still can’t play football. The Buffaloes are averaging just 77 yards per game on the ground as Isaiah Augustave is the team’s leading rusher with 362 yards and four touchdowns.
Kansas isn’t far from being a team with a winning record. The win over BYU was KU’s sixth one-possession game and only the first the team has won this season. The Jayhawks held BYU to just one touchdown, while the Cougars turned the ball over twice.
QB Jalon Daniels has played better as Kansas has won three of its last four games. But the key to another upset could be RB Devin Neal. Opponents had rushed for more than 100 yards in every game against Colorado until Utah could post just 31 in Week 12.
Time: 3:30 PM | TV: ESPN | Line: Arizona State -3 | Total: 48.5
It’s time to pay attention to Arizona State if you haven’t already. The Sun Devils are fresh off a win at Kansas State and have won three straight games since coach Kenny Dillingham called for open tryouts at kicker after a loss at Cincinnati.
The Sun Devils are led by RB Cam Skattebo. He has rushed 198 times for 1,098 yards and 11 touchdowns and has also added 31 catches for 448 yards and two scores. In addition to being ASU’s leading rusher, he is also the team’s second-leading receiver, behind Jordyn Tyson.
Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has done well after taking over for Jeff Sims at QB. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has totaled 21 TDs in nine games. Eight defensive players have tallied an interception so far this season, as safety Myles Rowser leads the team in tackles. A win also likely puts Arizona State one win away from the Big 12 title game.
BYU’s path to the Big 12 title game simply lost its margin of error with the loss to Kansas. The Cougars are in the championship game with two more wins. But it’s easy to wonder if the luck ran out against Kansas. The Cougars have been the opposite of the Jayhawks so far this season. That Week 12 game was BYU’s fifth one-score game of the season and just the Cougars’ first loss.
The BYU offense needs to do a better job scoring TDs against Arizona State. The Cougars eventually scored 34 points in six straight games before beating Utah 22-21. And now BYU has scored just 35 points in its last two games combined.
Time: 7:00 PM | Television: NBC | Line: Notre Dame -14.5 | Total: 44.5
How long can the military stay at Notre Dame?
The Black Knights’ three-pronged offense isn’t built for a quick comeback. Just ask the Navy. The Midshipmen were buried by turnovers in the first half of their match against the Fighting Irish earlier this season and had no chance of a comeback.
QB Bryson Daily leads the team with 174 carries for 1,062 yards and 21 scores, while RB Kanye Udoh has 856 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Watch out for RB Noah Short, who is also a big threat. He has 11 catches for 259 yards and three touchdowns.
Army is giving up just over 10 points per game, although the Black Knights have also played a very manageable schedule. Before Notre Dame, East Carolina was Army’s toughest opponent. That game came before ECU fired coach Mike Houston and reeled off three straight wins to become bowl eligible.
Notre Dame is also stingy on defense. While Ohio State ranks first in scoring defense and Army is second, Notre Dame is third at 11.4 points per game. So the under can be a good play.
Possessions will be valuable as Notre Dame’s offense is also heavily run-based. The Irish are averaging six yards per carry so far this season, compared to QB Riley Leonard’s 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Leonard was a much better passer in the second half of the season, but the offense is powered by his legs, along with RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.
Time: 7:30 PM | TV: ESPN | Line: Texas A&M -2.5 | Total: 46.5
Maybe this is the week that Auburn puts together a complete game against a good SEC opponent. Oddsmakers certainly think there’s a chance of that happening.
The Tigers are 1-5 in the SEC this season and need to beat both Texas A&M and Alabama to make a bowl game. Auburn is averaging nearly two goals per game, although the mistakes have decreased in recent weeks. After two five-turnover games in the first four weeks of the season, the Tigers haven’t turned the ball over more than once since.
But Auburn is still minus-11 in turnover margin this season thanks to a defense that has failed to force a turnover in six games so far this season. But when the defense shows up, the offense can’t do its job. Just look at the Vanderbilt game. Auburn held Diego Pavia to 9 of 23 for 143 yards and 227 total yards, but the Commodores won 17-7.
Marcel Reed is still the starting QB for the Aggies since taking over for Conner Weigman against LSU. He threw for two touchdowns and rushed for another against New Mexico State a week ago. A&M is tied with Texas at the top of the SEC and needs the win to make next week’s rivalry game a semifinal for the SEC title game. If both Texas and Texas A&M win Saturday, the winner of the regular season finale will be assured a spot in the conference championship.
Other games to watch
No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida (noon, ABC): Florida is one win away from bowl eligibility and Ole Miss needs to win its final two games to likely qualify for the College Football Playoff. The Gators upset LSU at home a week ago, although freshman QB DJ Lagway could be tormented by the Ole Miss pass rush given his lack of mobility due to his hamstring injury.
No. 13 SMU at Virginia (noon, ESPN2): Like Florida, Virginia needs one more win to qualify for the postseason and will host a team with its own playoff hopes. The Mustangs can clinch a spot in the ACC title game with a win thanks to Clemson’s loss to Louisville earlier this season.
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., CBS): Will the Nittany Lions be upset? They are two-goal favorites, but Minnesota is good to spoil a few games and we wouldn’t be surprised if this one comes a little closer than expected. Penn State needs to win its final two games and get a lot of help to advance to the Big Ten title game.
No. 12 Boise State at Wyoming (7 p.m., CBSSN): Boise State is a big favorite here. We’re just talking in this category to remind you that Ashton Jeanty has a great chance of breaking the 2,000-meter mark on Saturday night. A four TD night would also give Jeanty 30 rushing TDs for the season.
