You can watch Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs. Watch Browns at 8:20 PM ET/5:20 PM PT on Amazon Prime Video.
We get another dose of divisional action tonight as the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Ohio to take on the 2-8 Cleveland Browns. The last few divisional matchups we’ve had on TNF have been pretty good for fantasy football purposes, so we’ll have to hope this one doesn’t turn into a typical AFC North (or rather Steelers-specific) rock battle, where only the kickers and punters seem to call it a day. have (looking at you, Chris Boswell).
Let’s get to the story of the tape.
Should we worry about our Browns’ receivers?
As mentioned in the intro, the Steelers thrive in games with heavy running, an even tougher defense, and a final score that looks more like a hockey game than a football game (okay, I’m exaggerating, but if you’re invested in fantasy prospects the Steelers not the best draw for your players). This style of play is not exactly conducive to opposing receivers. Let’s take a look at the results of some high-profile pass catchers facing Pittsburgh this season:
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Drake London (2-15)
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Courtland Sutton (1-26)
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Quentin Johnston/Ladd McConkey (combined 5-88-1)
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Michael Pittman Jr. / Josh Downs (combined 14-195-1)
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CeeDee Lam (5-62)
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Brock Bowers (9-71)
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Garrett Wilson/Davante Adams (combined 8-91)
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Malik Nabers (7-71)
Outside of Joe Flacco’s mid-game outburst, the Steelers have kept opposing receivers in check for the most part, especially as the names and resumes have become clearer.
But let’s look specifically at the context of this game. The Steelers should beat the Browns handily, as the better team. But we can’t ignore one important factor: Jameis Winston.
Winston is everything fantasy managers dreamed of: his usual sharpshooter self, lifting the ceilings of every pass-catcher on the Browns no matter the play or situation. The Browns have also been incredibly pass-heavy since Winston took over; Whether that’s because they know the passing game gives them the best chance to win or because they realize Nick Chubb won’t return to form this season remains to be seen. Nevertheless, Winston’s chuck-it character has revived David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. Njoku, Moore and Jeudy all had great games last week, even though the Browns ultimately fell 35-14.
Sure, the Saints’ injury-plagued defense pales in comparison to the Steelers’, but with Cleveland adopting a pass-first mentality (and if the pass fails, pass again), these pass-catchers should all miss their chances must get in this game. .
I’m most concerned about Tillman, who will likely get targets but will also be followed by Joey Porter Jr. So while I expect more catches than last week, Tillman’s ceiling may have been reached. Luckily, Winston is no stranger to spreading the ball around. I’m starting all of Tillman, Njoku and Jeudy, and I’m considering Moore in deep leagues.
Let’s just hope that the weather permits the pass; it looks like rain during the game.
Will Najee Harris last?
It seems that working with Najee Harris is more common than singing his praises. He’s too slow, he has no electricity on his runs, he has to share the load with Jaylen Warren, he doesn’t catch passes.
Blah, blah, blah. All Harris has done since Week 6 is produce.
Even last week, when he was held under 70 rushing yards, Harris still racked up 93 yards thanks to four catches. As Matt Harmon has said this season, Russell Wilson has been a “touchdown or checkdown” quarterback (last week, both Harris and Warren caught four passes each) in the context of the Steelers’ run-heavy, play-action-pass offense .
In short, even in tough matches, Harris has a safe floor and a solid ceiling. He comes into this game on a streak of a touchdown or 90 yards in five straight games. Expect the streak to continue tonight.
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Can Mike Williams be an MVS-lite for the Steelers?
Mike Williams joined the Steelers and immediately caught one pass for a deep touchdown. Basically, its bread and butter. And it’s a skill that pairs well with Russell Wilson’s deep ball strengths.
Of course, Williams didn’t get a single target in his second game as a Steeler, putting up a big blank for deep league players who took a chance on the big player in a plus matchup.
Williams has only been included in 16% of competitions, down 4% from last week, which is understandable. But I would keep him on the bench if you can. It’s not out of the question that Williams settles into the MVS role, that 3-120-1 type role. That probably wouldn’t change the views of George Pickens or Harris.
Williams was fighting a losing battle in the offensive armory of a stacked Jets. But there is room for him to thrive on this Steelers team, with the way it is constructed and the way the offense likes to play. I remain cautiously optimistic about his addition; If he can produce one or two big plays in a plus matchup tonight, I’ll add him via the waiver wire.
SEAT: Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
You’re probably reading the headline above and thinking one of two things: 1) “Who cares if a TE isn’t in the top 10?” or 2) “I’m not going to start at tight end, not with Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Evan Engram and Taysom Hill parting ways.”
And I understand both feelings. It’s not fun for me either. But in the same way that you’re probably thinking about one of these two things, you also need to understand two more things. 1) Pat Freiermuth (54% listed) has seemingly been removed from the Steelers offense aside from the odd short pass through the middle goal or a scramble drill goal in the red zone – he hasn’t played in any of his the last few times they’ve crossed the three-goal mark in six games, and 2) the Browns have completely silenced their opponents this season.
Don’t let the green on your fantasy app fool you – if you have a better option at TE this week (maybe you landed Will Dissly or Jonnu Smith or Zach Ertz or want to go deep with Ja’Tavion Sanders), fire them then up.
