It’s time we re-ask a question we’ve been asking all season: what should we do about the Dolphins offense?
This week, however, we look at the issue from a more positive perspective. When Tua Tagovailoa was out, the entire offense was useless. When Tua returned, De’Von Achane was the only reliable option. Now in Week 12, the entire Dolphins offense finally looked like a cohesive and cohesive unit ready for the fantasy upside we had hoped for heading into the season.
However, is it too little too late?
Heading into the season, the Dolphins’ late-season schedule was a big concern for me:
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Week 13 @ Green Bay Packers
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Week 14 vs. Jets from New York
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Week 15 @ Houston Texans
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Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers
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Week 17 @ Cleveland Browns
It was a tough schedule… in theory. But looking ahead, things now look intriguing.
Green Bay has had a known problem defending the run, but they have held up quite well, near the middle in point average for opposing running backs. They have been stout against opposing quarterbacks, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the 10th-fewest to receivers. Oddly enough, Green Bay may be the toughest matchup for Tagovailoa.
The Jets defense has been shaky and vulnerable at all positions since the firing of Robert Saleh. The Texans can’t seem to pick a lane and decide whether to play good or bad defense. The 49ers have been hit by a wave of injuries. The Browns are in a downward spiral and their only advantage is playing in Cleveland.
With this new perspective on the schedule for the remainder of the season in mind, and finally seeing a strong overall offensive performance, let’s talk about what to expect from our key Dolphins’ fantasy assets moving forward – and who we can trust .
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Like any NFL offense, it all starts and ends with the quarterback. Heading into the week, Tua Tagovailoa posted his best performance of the season with 23.5 fantasy points and three touchdowns – both season highs. He took advantage of that momentum and delivered an even better performance with over 300 passing yards, four touchdowns and 28.5 fantasy points, becoming the overall QB3 of the week (before the primetime games).
Pulse check: Can we really trust that Tua is back on track?
While I have some concerns about the cold weather for Tagovailoa, especially during a night game in Green Bay and Cleveland during championship week, his prospects for the remainder of the season remain strong. The Week 17 game against Cleveland is likely off due to weather concerns, but the Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives and keeping their foot on the accelerator. Despite some seasonal issues from the receiving corps, Tagovailoa has one of the most productive groups of pass catchers in the league, including his running backs and tight ends. He has QB1 upside through Week 16.
De’Von Achane, RB
Speaking of productive pass catchers, De’Von Achane was the most consistent and reliable option through the air. Often we see strong receptions turn into PPR cheat codes due to huge reception totals, but that is not the case with Achane. I don’t have the updated stats from Week 12 yet, but at the start of the week Achane ranked third in red zone targets among running backs and first in red zone touchdowns. Achane narrowed it further, inside the 5-yard line, and led all running backs in targets. Those numbers should only improve after Achane caught two red zone touchdowns today.
Pulse check: Is Achane receiving enough benefit to overcome the lack of production on the ground?
In an ideal world we want the reliability of a back with strong ground work, but 100 yards on the ground really isn’t necessary for Achane to reach his ceiling on a weekly basis. His schedule for the rest of the season is back-friendly and his work on the ground is adequate, but will continue to be driven by his work in the air. The aforementioned red zone stats for Achane include the weeks without Tua. With Tua, Achane has been an absolute machine. He is matchup-proof and should be considered a weekly top-5 play.
Tyreek Hill, WR
For all the brilliance Achane has shown since Tagovailoa’s return, we’ve only seen modest improvement in Tyreek Hill’s production. From Weeks 3 through 7 without Tagovailoa, Hill averaged just 5.9 fantasy points per game. Since Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, Hill has averaged 10.6 fantasy points. It’s an improvement, but it’s far from what we’re used to.
Some degree of volatility is understandable, but we don’t even understand that. Hill’s best performance since Tagovailoa’s return came in Week 11 against Las Vegas, when he scored 15.6 fantasy points in the half PPR to finish WR16. Essentially, we’re stuck with a mediocre floor and only the hope of a positive WR2.
Pulse check: What about Earth what do we do with Hill?
Because it’s Tyreek Hill, we can’t stop playing him. His talent is undeniable and a lingering hand injury could affect his performance. However, he is now firmly in WR2 territory, and honestly, his ranking there is maintained purely on name value. The benefit exists in theory, but the theory must translate into actual production.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Waddle has been the opposite of Hill. While Hill has provided at least some level of flooring – albeit a low one – Waddle’s floor has been a basement, making him completely unstartable. After scoring 11 fantasy points in Week 1, Waddle failed to eclipse five fantasy points in nine straight games. It didn’t matter who the quarterback was or what the play was; he simply couldn’t produce. But just when you were ready to give up, he delivered a huge boom game this week with 24 fantasy points in half PPR. Waddle caught 8 of 9 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown, easily his best game of the season, even including games before Tagovailoa’s injury.
Pulse check: Is Waddle back on the table or was this a random error in the football universe?
This performance is encouraging, but it’s hard to rely on it as the new normal for Waddle. We are cautiously optimistic, but the reality remains: Waddle has shown zero floor all season. We can’t look at matchups to predict whether Waddle will repeat, because good matchups had not yielded positive results before this week. I’d like to see a low-end WR2 performance next week before Waddle is declared rehabilitated. Proceed with caution.
Jonnu Smith, TE
I wrote about Smith last week in the Make or Break column, highlighting the increased consistency in his targets and touchdowns as the key to his double-digit fantasy performances. This week, he had his second-best performance of the year, catching nine of 11 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. Smith has now surpassed 19 fantasy points in each of the past two games and has become one of Tua’s most reliable targets.
Pulse check: With two fantastic performances in a row, is Smith a weekly top five option?
Smith’s increased use is not surprising. The Dolphins have struggled to find a tight end that fits Mike McDaniel’s system, and Smith seemed like the perfect one. He’s really taken off into the weapon we were hoping for.
With two solid weeks in a row, my confidence in Smith is growing. The upcoming schedule is less favorable for tight ends, with San Francisco, the Jets and Houston all ranking in the top 10 for fewest fantasy points allowed at the position. However, given the volume Smith is seeing, he remains a clear weekly option in the top 10.
