Week 12 certainly brought plenty of excitement, starting with the snow game Thursday night, followed by a thrilling fourth quarter that led to overtime in Chicago, KaVontae Turpin’s muffed punt turning into a 99-yard touchdown and a near upset in Carolina. Tampa Bay, Detroit, Miami and Green Bay showed their beleaguered opponents who’s boss with statement wins, while the Arizona Cardinals, not named Trey McBride (12/133 on 15 targets), might as well have stayed bye.
The star players appeared on Sunday Night Football, but that wasn’t necessarily the case for the rest of the league. Many of our No. 1s let us down in Week 12, which made for an ugly fantasy week considering all the byes and injuries we were already dealing with. Today we’re going to take a look at the No. 2 guys who had big days and find out if the tables have turned for these teams (fact) or if the stars will soon shine bright again (coincidence).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
After the bye in Week 10, Smith-Njigba was the clear-cut Seahawks WR1 for fantasy. In these two games, he has 16 catches on 18 targets, while Metcalf has 11 catches on 14 targets. Smith-Njigba has the only receiving touchdown in that span. Tyler Lockett, meanwhile, was an afterthought, scoring just six goals in the two games. With the second-highest average passing yards per game (257.2 yards), Geno Smith can certainly keep two high-end fantasy receivers. In a sense, it doesn’t really matter who is the 1A and who is the 1B; both are fantasy starters every week.
While Smith-Njigba, in his second year, may seem like the wave of the future, it’s important to remember that Metcalf is only 26 years old. In PPR leagues, Smith-Njigba’s elite target share gives him the edge over Metcalf going forward. However, Metcalf’s speed and physicality at the point of the catch will earn him big fantasy plays, sometimes at the expense of Smith-Njigba. In Week 13, Seattle travels to take on the NY Jets, whose stout defense ranks second in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed to opponents, and first in completions allowed .
It will be a classic offensive strength vs. defensive strength on display at the Meadowlands, but I expect to see a lot more from Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet as the Jets are (at best) an average rush defense, making the third-most rushing touchdowns per game. Temper your expectations on the Seahawks’ WRs this week, but expect both Smith-Njigba and Metcalf to have value in better matchups during weeks 14 and 16 in particular.
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Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Just when the fantasy world was ready to give up on Waddle, he finally had his big game (8/144/1), while Hill’s effort in the Dolphins’ huge win over New England was forgettable (5/48). This seems like a fluke, especially when you take into account Hill’s ongoing wrist injury. But Waddle isn’t just a flash in the pan; he was WR13 in 2022 and WR23 in 2023 (fantasy points per game).
When Tua Tagovailoa is “on,” this offense can easily support 3-4 fantasy starters, a group that includes Jonnu Smith (9/87/1 on 11 targets in Week 12) and of course De’Von Achane, who had two receiving touchdowns at the victory. It’s a quick turnaround for Miami as they take on the Packers in Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. It’s a bad matchup for wide receivers, but even in a week without byes, I’m not on Waddle or Hill.
Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The painful or wonderful thing about this is that people actually started Addison’s because of all the bye weeks and injuries. If you ran into him, as I did, it meant an early end to your hopes of winning. When you started it, it was clear sailing. Only Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs surpassed Addison in terms of half PPR fantasy points this week, as Addison posted a scintillating 8/162/1 line against the Bears. On the other end of the spectrum, Jefferson caught just two of five targets for 27 yards.
Realize that the Bears have been one of the best defenses against the pass this season. It’s worth holding on to the knowledge that they will sell out to stop the opponent’s best receiving weapon, willing to be beaten by the next man in line. (Side note: the Bears get Detroit next, which could be a big day for Jameson Williams in Week 13). Minnesota, meanwhile, gets two very fantasy-friendly WR matchups in the next two weeks, so you’ll likely get the best of Jefferson as you make your final playoff push. Both Addison and Jalen Nailor are favorite targets in Sam Darnold’s end zone, so if the Week 14 byes let you down, either would be worth a fresh start against Atlanta (gives up third-most fantasy points to WRs).
Noah Gray and Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Gray has burst onto the TE scene over the past two weeks, scoring twice in each game. Kelce still leads him by a wide margin in targets, catches and yards, but it’s been clear for a while that we’re not dealing with the same old fantasy goldmine this year. The Chiefs will do what they have to do to win, and they have their sights set on another Super Bowl, so if that means keeping Kelce fresher in his age-35 season, then that’s what they’ll do.
Based on his overall good target share (Buffalo has been an outlier over the last five games), you should start Kelce. But based on his 90% catch rate and end zone magnetism, you can also view Gray as a positive fill-in, especially against the Raiders in Week 13.
Calvin Austin III and George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickens leads all Steelers receivers in targets, catches and yards, easily doubling Austin, who is second in every category. Still, Austin has four touchdowns to Pickens’ two and seemed to be Russell Wilson’s go-to guy for some big yardage plays and a touchdown that gave Pittsburgh the lead in the snowy Week 12 game. However, he saw only three targets to Pickens’ seven, and I’m inclined to use this.
Austin will likely have one or two more ceiling games this season, but he will have the duds as well. That’s the nature of a WR2 in a shaky offense. Pickens will bounce back for his fantasy managers, likely starting in Week 13 against a Bengals defense that is above average in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
While Anthony Richardson was something of a representative for his fantasy managers, he didn’t really help those who drafted and started his top WR. Josh Downs had emerged as the WR1 in Indianapolis, with six more goals, eight more catches and two more touchdowns than Pittman, but it was Pittman who came away with the better fantasy value in Week 12 for the first time this season.
As far as deep threats go, Alec Pierce is one of the best. He actually leads the Colts in receiving yards, averaging 13.1 yards per catch. Given that Pittman was drafted well before Downs, and Pierce wasn’t drafted at all in most leagues, should we buy the Week 12 “breakout”?
First off, Pittman’s 6/96 on seven targets doesn’t inspire awe, but they were among the most catchable passes Richardson threw in Week 12 (per FantasyLife Utilization Report). Richardson had a terrible completion percentage last weekend, 39.3%, and only saved his own fantasy day with 61 rushing yards. Secondly, it now appears that Downs (shoulder) will not play in Week 13. The Colts were completely outclassed by Detroit in the brutal loss, but with a better matchup ahead, NE can certainly be defeated through the air like Tua Tagovailoa just showed ; I’ll start with Pittman.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
No one performed better than Lamb in Week 12, but he certainly made a mistake in non-PPR competitions (10/67 on 12 targets). The Cooper Rush effect hasn’t been too kind to Lamb’s managers so far. Still, it’s being used in droves and better matchups are on the horizon, including the Giants on Thursday. This has been a frustrating season for Lamb between Dak Prescott’s poor play, a defense that can’t get off the field and now Rush, but what can you do besides shout into the void? Lam remains a must-start.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
I could copy and paste the Lamb text here. Übertalented WR1, bad QB play, now worse QB play. I won’t pick on New York’s defense as it is largely league average. The 2024 Tommy DeVito experience didn’t get off to the best start, but he didn’t commit any turnovers and at least threw the ball to the right person. Nabers saw nine targets and caught six for 64 yards in Week 12. The bad news is the Giants faced one of the league’s best fantasy matchups for QB/WR in the Bucs. They’ll get another chance at a good matchup when they head to Dallas for Turkey Day. The Cowboys defense, as mentioned above, ranks near the bottom of the league in opponent possession, yards per game, and points per game. Nabers is a bright light in a very weak attack, but like Lamb still a must-start.
