It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we only have a very limited amount of time to observe and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear – Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be – if at all.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey continues to test the patience of his fantasy managers, as he would be just the RB29 with 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game (10.9) on the season. Last week can be attributed to a San Francisco offense that lost Brock Purdy and Trent Williams, but CMC’s numbers have dropped across the board over three games since their return. He’s posting a career-low 3.5 YPC and his fewest YPT since 2020. McCaffrey likely won’t be the same player when he returns from bilateral Achilles tendonitis, but the 49ers’ offense has also struggled at times since losing Brandon Aiyuk.
McCaffrey’s usage remains elite, though: he had a 93% snap share and saw all 15 RB opportunities before the final two drives of the big loss in San Francisco last week. The 49ers may be faltering in the win/loss column, but their offense has racked up the second-most yards per game this season (6.3), despite last week’s ugly performance with a backup QB and LT. San Francisco has the second-best yardage differential in the NFL. The 49ers rank in the bottom five in red zone TD percentage (50.0%) after ranking first last season (68.0%), so there should be a rebound in scoring .
Given CMC’s role in this offense, even a smaller version could easily be a top-five fantasy – but for that we need a healthy Purdy.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Few coaches love a player more than Williams’ Sean McVay, but the running back has fumbled four times in the past four games (with two losses). Williams has an NFL-high five fumbles (among non-QBs), and he lost two in one of LA’s final games last season. Williams is allowed just 4.0 YPC and hasn’t seen a single goal in the past two games. It’s possible he’s worn out considering his incredibly high usage (third most RB snaps) and his size.
That said, Williams saw a 90% share and 16 of 17 RB opportunities after coughing up the ball in last week’s game. A few more fumbles could change things quickly, but his workhorse role seems intact for now. Matthew Stafford is averaging 287.5 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns this season with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, so the Rams offense is one of the best in the league when healthy. Additionally, Williams’ schedule has been the 10th-toughest in the league so far, but he will have the third-easiest going forward.
Williams could still have a big fantasy finish, but fantasy managers will constantly worry that he’s fumbling again.
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud is the QB26 in fantasy points per game, just ahead of recently released (and now new Viking) Daniel Jones. Stroud has only two weekly top-five QB finishes during his career, both last season. He ranks 24th in EPA/dropback and 32nd in completion percentage above expectation. He was also the most pressured QB in the league. Stroud has taken a step back as a sophomore, and he’s the latest example of the risk you take when drafting a high-fantasy quarterback who doesn’t run.
However, there is some hope now that Nico Collins is back to full health. Stroud has only managed 197.2 passing yards and 1.0 TD passes without Collins on the field this season, but he is averaging 269.9 and 1.3 with him on it. Houston also sees a significant increase in success rate (61.7%) and PROE (+7.1%) when Collins is on the field compared to when he is absent (53.0%, -2.2%). Stroud would still just be the QB19 (15.8 fpg) during games with Collins, but it’s worth noting that the duo had two long touchdown connections (110 total yards) that were negated by shaky penalties in the last two weeks.
Subscribe Yahoo Fantasy Prediction on Apple podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
Stefon Diggs isn’t returning, but Tank Dell could be more explosive the further away he is from leg surgery (like Tony Pollard was last year). Additionally, the Texans’ QB schedule is the eighth most favorable in the league, including a top game this week. Stroud should start putting up better stats as he goes along, but he has been one of the biggest fantasy busts of the season.
Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Murray’s up-and-down season continued with a dud last week, as Arizona scored just six points in a game with one of the highest projected totals of the week. But Seattle’s defense has been playing much better lately, as the Seahawks rank fourth in EPA/play allowed since trading for Ernest Jones. Additionally, Michael Wilson caught a touchdown that was called back on a penalty, while Marvin Harrison Jr. couldn’t get a second foot into the end zone on the next play. Murray’s had the league’s toughest QB schedule to date, but he’ll be average moving forward.
Murray has spent as many weeks (four) as a top five QB this season as he has spent at the bottom of 10, so expect more inconsistent play longer term.
Harrison Jr. hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game since Week 3 and didn’t experience a rookie bump in Arizona’s bye last week. No wide receiver in the top 60 averages fewer fantasy points per game when you remove touchdowns.
This isn’t all Harrison Jr.’s fault, as his role in Arizona’s offense has been a major hurdle to production. But the rookie wideout also ranks No. 84 in ESPN’s Open Score and No. 55 in Average Separation Score. MHJ has fewer catches this year (36) than the likes of Jalen Tolbert, Will Dissly, Javonte Williams, Ray-Ray McCloud and Zach Ertz. Harrison Jr. has a teammate who led the league in first read target last week (58.8%), and Arizona has one of the lowest above-expectation pass rates (-6.0%).
Rookie wide receivers tend to perform better late in the season, and the Cardinals’ WR schedule goes from third-toughest yet to sixth-easiest going forward. Yet Harrison Jr. on track to be one of this year’s biggest fantasy fails.
