Quarterback
Starts: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Mayfield is quietly the QB4 in points per game after six 20-point games, a number that trails only Lamar Jackson. The Bucs get a date with a Carolina high schooler who has allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback and sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Vegas also buys the Bucs’ offense with a team total of 26.25 trailing only the Ravens.
Don’t miss any episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry And Rotoworld football show all season long for the latest player news, help with distance transfers, start/sit advice and much more.
Incumbent: Kyler Murray, Cardinals
The Vikings are generally a below-average opponent in terms of fantasy production from opposing quarterbacks and fare particularly well against Murray and the Cardinals. They have allowed the fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this year and have given up just one rushing touchdown. Minnesota’s biggest weakness on defense is its inability to control deep shots, but the Cardinals aren’t big on attempting those throws. Murray ranks 24th in deep throw percentage this year. Murray is stuck at the QB1/2 limit this week.
Run back
Start: Bucky Irving, Bucs
Irving has been one of the most efficient backs in the league this year, ranking second in yards after contact per carry and seventh in Next Gen rush yards above expected per attempt.
He is now marrying those beautiful numbers with an increase in touches. Irving earned a season-high 18 touches in Week 12. His 55 percent snap share and 59 percent route percentage were both standouts in games in which Rachaad White was active. Now he gets a Panthers defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs.
Incumbent: Nick Chubb, Browns
The Browns have the lowest implied team total of any team playing Sunday at 18 points. They are 5.5-point road underdogs versus a Denver defense that ranks seventh in rushing EPA per attempt allowed. Chubb is not involved as a receiver out of the backfield and does not generate explosive plays. He has one gain of 15 or more yards and ranks last in the NFL in yards per carry (min. 70 attempts).
Wide receiver
Start: Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Sutton was held without a target in Week 7. Since then, he has seen more targets than all but seven wide receivers. He has a 29 percent target share and a 45 percent air yards share since the donut game. Sutton gets a Cleveland defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points to go to opposing wideouts.
Seat: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
This feels like low-hanging fruit, but MVS is the player I’ve been asked about the most this week. With play-off spots on the line, the risk isn’t worth the reward. Despite scoring three times in the last two games, he has just seven goals and a 15 percent goal share in those games. MVS was the WR56 in expected points in weeks 10 and 11. He finished as the WR3 overall. Given his modest role, I don’t believe he can sustain anything close to this level of efficiency in the future.
Tight end
Starts: Evan Engram, Jaguars
Engram has played in nine games over the past two seasons while Christian Kirk was inactive. He has averaged 15.5 fantasy points on 9.6 targets per game in those games.
His target share is up to an absurd 32 percent in three games without Kirk this year. With Trevor Lawrence expected to return Sunday, Engram is aiming for a top-five spot at tight end.
Incumbent: Kyle Pitts, Falcons
Pitts is an inconsistent player and cold streaks are to be expected, but his latest regression comes with a noticeable hit to his role. Pitts has scored 13.5 fantasy points over his past three games combined. During that stretch, he has a disastrous 11 percent target share while completing 74 percent of routes. The Chargers defense ranks sixth in EPA per dropback allowed and has faced a success rate of -3% above expectations. Pitts should get back on the board at some point with a big game, but Week 13 isn’t the time to make that bet.
