Two weeks ago, when Josh Allen somehow crossed six different Kansas City Chiefs defenders for a 26-yard touchdown — on a crucial fourth-and-2, no less — the Buffalo Bills quarterback underscored his NFL MVP vote . Suddenly, what had been a question mark had turned into an exclamation point: Allen had cinematically cemented the Chiefs’ first loss of the season, leaving CBS broadcaster Jim Nance to capture the breathless rapture of many who watched the moment unfold.
“AND THERE HE GOES! …. OHHHHHHHH THE GAME OF THE YEAR IN THE NFL!” Nance shouted.
If Allen hadn’t already been in every MVP conversation up to that point, he wouldn’t be denied the rest. The only question (and this is always paramount in MVP races) was whether Allen could ride the momentum moving forward. On Sunday, during a classically framed December snowstorm against the San Francisco 49ers, he answered with a resounding response. Not just by pulling off a 35-10 victory, but by producing the first touchdown “hat trick” accomplished by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era: throwing, catching and rushing for a score against the 49ers. That included a touchdown pass that Allen threw to himself, in an incredibly improvised moment that left NBC’s broadcast booth of Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth howling in disbelief.
In close races, moments like these can be an MVP. Predictably, this has now laid the foundation for this week’s discussion on the price, which is the latest twist in what will be one of the most compelling votes in recent memory. Even with five weeks of football left and a few crossroads still on the table for the trio of front-runners, including Allen, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Lest we forget, each of these stars has evoked several “call an end to the race” moments.
Just over a week ago, Barkley maimed the Los Angeles Rams for 255 rushing yards – and 302 yards from scrimmage – and put himself back on track to challenge the league’s single-season rushing record… which is 40 years old and still counts. Like Allen this week, the performance was met with a chorus of “just give him the MVP now” and “finish the race.” A week later, Allen responded. Of course, Barkley’s MVP case goes beyond one game or even one hallowed NFL record.
Despite quarterback Jalen Hurts allowing at least eight tush push touchdowns on the goal line, he’s still been the driving force behind the Eagles’ offense in the second half of this season. He has an absurd 982 second-half rushing yards in twelve games, which puts him ahead of 30 others whole ploughing. His fourth quarters are even better, with 481 yards on 7.4 yards per carry in that frame. When the Eagles need him most, Barkley has performed at a historic pace. Just like he did with his 25-yard fourth-quarter touchdown on Sunday, which helped the Eagles put aside the Ravens in a game bathed in postseason intensity.
Analytics aside, moments like this are why Barkley will eventually get serious MVP consideration.
The same goes for Jackson. Just three weeks ago, he was so far ahead of the MVP field that there were doubts anyone could get back into the race. Then the Ravens dropped two of their past three games while facing playoff-caliber opponents — and with Jackson’s production down in all three games — and suddenly the race took on new life.
But the losses and dip in production don’t really tell the story of how important Jackson has been.
Yes, his stats put him on pace to possibly surpass his absurd 2019 MVP season. That alone would make him the frontrunner in virtually any NFL season. But it’s his value to this Ravens team that is so amazing. Nearly all of the success in Baltimore’s 8-5 record is based on Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. Kicker Justin Tucker is struggling through the most unreliable season of his career, the Ravens defense is a shadow of its former self, and Jackson has been betrayed at times by a cast of receivers that amount to Zay Flowers and little else. Overall, the Ravens’ defensive and special teams EPA ranks 29th in the league. That gives you an idea of what – or rather, who – this team is carrying.
For Barkley and Jackson, these arguments should be shelved. Not to mention the rest of the schedule, where Allen could find himself in some turbulence and remix the entire series of arguments. Not that Allen should do that, mind you. Most of the Bills’ remaining schedule is pie, including a three-game season finale that slots two games against the 3-9 New England Patriots around a 3-9 New York Jets team. Meanwhile, Jackson will see two likely playoff teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans, while Barkley will also get the Steelers and Washington Commanders.
Among the three, Allen still has the biggest “stage moment” – on the road against the Detroit Lions on December 15, in what is shaping up as one of the most anticipated games of this entire regular season. Not only does it put Allen on the field with another man who has his own MVP case, Lions quarterback Jared Goff, it also puts him up against a Detroit defense that is terribly depleted by injuries and ripe for a shootout at the end of the season. If Allen needs some sort of closing argument to get his stats anywhere near Jackson’s gaudy sheet, he certainly has the intent to do so… other than the fact that his last three games have been played in December (two in Buffalo and the third in Foxborough). ). Oh, and for the analytical crowd: Allen also leads all NFL quarterbacks in an important “smart stat”: EPA (expected points added) per game vs. WPA (win probability added) per game, putting him behind Jackson, Goff and the Kansas City Chiefs late. quarterback Patrick Mahomes and all the other heavy hitters this season.
For now, it’s all grist to the mill in the MVP argument. Today’s packed campaign for Allen, following an iconic snow game and the starting quarterback’s hat trick, could shift back to Jackson over the next five weeks as we dissect the depth of both players for their teams. Or it could tilt toward Barkley, who could shatter a decades-old single-season record while sparking a renaissance in rolling back NFL ratings.
In many ways, the MVP race begins in earnest. And it promises to be one of the best we’ve ever seen.
