The only surefire way the Red Sox can win the Juan Soto sweepstakes originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Rarely has there been a more straightforward free agency case than Juan Soto. The Red Sox can highlight David Ortiz, glorify the history of Fenway Park and trace Soto’s lineage back to Ted Williams himself, but let’s be honest.
He signs with whoever pays him the most money.
This creates a legitimate opportunity for the Red Sox, as long as they don’t get lost in the weeds. Selling Soto as the centerpiece of their upcoming rebuild is a great support strategy. But it can’t be their main strategy.
Their primary pitch should start with a dollar sign and end with a Cheerios bowl full of zeros, because agent Scott Boras isn’t in the habit of leaving money on the table. The Red Sox are perfectly positioned to get the deal done, if they’re willing to throw caution to the wind like they usually have.
Even the richest teams have budgets, and the Red Sox have neglected their roster for so long that they now have as much money to spend as anyone (at least $70 million before they reach the first luxury tax threshold, as CEO Sam Kennedy recently told The Boston Globe that they would like to surpass). The largely unwatchable baseball they’ve foisted on us since the pandemic has perversely put them in the driver’s seat, if they only step on the gas, because the market could actually break their way.
The Yankees want to reunite with Soto, who delivered the best season of his career in pinstripes, but Hal Steinbrenner must have inherited his mother’s DNA because he has never spent money as recklessly as his late father.
The Yankees have instead made targeted attacks on his watch, spending more than $300 million each on Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge — with a Cy Young and MVP to show for their generosity — but they no longer exude the arrogance necessary . that made them the Evil Empire. It is possible to make Soto an offer that they cannot match.
Likewise, the Mets have given owner Steve Cohen a crash course in the realities of spending money. They rarely work, hinder a franchise if there is no plan involved, and cannot occur annually. The Mets cleared about $180 million from their books this winter, so there’s room to spend on a team that just battled its way to the National League Championship Series.
But it’s unclear whether Cohen wants to commit to $350 million forever, and the 2023 deals that jettisoned Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, as well as last winter’s modest acquisitions, signaled a slight decline. Ignore Cohen’s deep pockets at your peril, of course, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he approaches this offseason a little more cautiously.
Then there are the Dodgers. They tend to linger in these situations before striking, but even they have their limits. They just signed two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell for $182 million, making it even harder to imagine another $600 million coming into Soto’s payroll, especially if he refuses to defer money like Shohei Ohtani, who is worth $700 million.
The Dodgers may never be counted out, but there are already five players on the roster who are due at least $27 million next year.
That leaves the Blue Jays and their currency exchange rates, international flights and constant bridesmaid status. They tried to blow away Ohtani last year without success, and one suspects they will suffer a similar fate in the Soto lottery.
So that brings us back to the Red Sox and their unique advantages this winter. The Yankees have a budget. The Mets have reached a turning point. The Dodgers may be tapped. The Blue Jays are in Canada. The Red Sox have an opportunity to flush their budget approach of the past five years — aiming to win low-stakes negotiations by a dollar and completely ignore the top end of the market — and go get a player the old-fashioned way .
It doesn’t require Pedro Martinez to deliver a bouquet of roses, give a tour of the public gardens or air a hype video about Fenway Park. Just offer Soto so much that you leave him no choice.
