HomeSportsFantasy Football Make or Break: Chasing the upside in must-win week 14

Fantasy Football Make or Break: Chasing the upside in must-win week 14

We took a little break in Week 13, but I’m back with five make-or-break players for Week 14. This week, six teams have byes and top talent has been eliminated, leaving fantasy managers at all positions with crucial choices.

We approach each offensive position this week with high-risk, high-upside options that could pay off in a short week.

Will Levis has risen in the rankings to a borderline QB1 and a highly streamable option in Week 14. Of all the players bye this week, the quarterback position may have been hit the hardest, with four typical quarterbacks in the top 12: Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and CJ Stroud – on a bye, plus strong streaming options like Anthony Richardson and Drake Maye. Add in terrible matchups for typically reliable options like Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith, and you have the perfect storm that has propelled Levis into potential QB1 territory.

There are other interesting streaming options this week. Cooper Rush has an excellent game against Cincinnati, and Aidan O’Connell looked great last week and has a great game against Tampa Bay. Oddly enough, Levis is the most reliable option among the less reliable quarterbacks with excellent matchups.

Yes, I said it: Will Levis is reliable. Since returning from injury, and despite several strong defensive games, Levis has shown surprisingly solid bottom line with at least 16 fantasy points and one top-10 finish against the LA Chargers.

Levis is chaotic and he will turn the ball over, but he has thrown two touchdowns in three of the past four games. He tends to throw for volume, and when he doesn’t, he’s strangely accurate. Regardless of whether he throws fewer than 25 or more than 30 attempts, he completes almost exactly 18 passes in every game. It’s not much, but it’s reliable.

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In a week when fantasy managers are looking for streaming quarterbacks with a combination of a solid floor and QB1 upside, Levis offers both, especially in a matchup against a Jacksonville defense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

With JK Dobbins out for the season, the Chargers’ backfield remains a puzzle that seems impossible to solve. Last week, Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins combined for just 52 rushing yards on 11 carries and one reception. To be fair, the Falcons defense has been stronger against the run than the pass lately and the entire flow of the game has been very strange.

Unfortunately, this week’s game against Kansas City isn’t any better and likely won’t provide much clarity. Edwards should be the leading back, but he has yet to score double-digit fantasy points in a game this season. The somewhat good news is that Edwards appears to be the frontrunner and efficiency was not an issue last week; the Chargers had limited output offensively as a whole.

Edwards offers no upside and the Chiefs give the fewest fantasy points to running backs. That said, a lead back is a lead back and with so many options for a bye or dealing with injuries, Edwards ranks as a high-end RB3 or flex option.

Edwards’ best-case scenario is a goal-line touchdown set up by Justin Herbert, exploiting Kansas City’s vulnerable secondary. Without a touchdown, you’re looking at another performance of less than five points. However, if he manages to capitalize at the goal line, 10-15 fantasy points is a realistic expectation.

Edwards isn’t the only Charger we care about this week. When I initially picked players for this article, things weren’t exactly looking good for Ladd McConkey, but he’s practicing so he may play this week. We’ll have to keep an eye on injury news because if McConkey is out or potentially limited, it leaves the Chargers’ receiving corps without a truly reliable option. Instead of forcing ten to fifteen targets on Quentin Johnston, we could see a greater reliance on Will Dissly.

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Dissly was dealing with an injury last week and played a normal snap count, but had just one target and zero receptions — a shocking outcome for a tight end that many fantasy managers leaned on as a streaming option. Dissly served as the TE1 for most of the season, but really came to the fore in Week 7 with eight receptions on 11 targets for 81 yards. From Week 7 through Week 12, Dissly was a borderline TE1, averaging eight fantasy points per game. While that may feel disappointing, it’s enough to make him a reliable streaming option.

Dissly’s lack of touchdown equity limits his potential in non-PPR leagues, but his previous volume was reliable before last week. If the goals go back to Dissly, this is the perfect matchup to play against him. Kansas City has been incredibly potent against the run and more vulnerable against the pass, especially against tight ends, to whom it has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points this season. Keep an eye on McConkey’s status and play Dissly accordingly.

Cooper Rush moves up the rankings slightly this week as a streaming option given the game against Cincinnati, but it’s still incredibly difficult to trust him knowing his minimum could be negative points. Rush is more of a desperation-heavy option for Superflex. In typical leagues, however, his pass catchers are the most intriguing options.

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The Cowboys have leaned heavily on Rico Dowdle lately, and that should continue given the matchup. However, if Cincinnati dominates Dallas’ defense, the Cowboys may be forced to pass more. CeeDee Lamb remains the clear top target, but secondary options may be viable this week.

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Cooks returned to the lineup last week, and while his rushing numbers were limited (likely because he brought him back in), the team was intentional with its targets. We also saw an increase in Turpin usage. Turpin was electric on special teams and it makes sense to integrate such a dynamic weapon into the offense. Moving to Rush’s second and third options can be daunting, but if you’re struggling to find viable fill-ins, the match provides an excellent opportunity for speculative play.

The Cowboys tried to draft Jonathan Mingo to happen – but we can all see that this is a failed attempt – and Jalen Tolbert remains as well, but Cooks and Turpin are the only options with real upside. In most competitions, Cooks is the safer play as his limited goals last week were likely due to his return from injury. He should see increased usage this week, and his track record speaks for itself.

In deeper leagues, Turpin is a risky but intriguing option. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he has significant touches, but four to five of them is enough for a player like Turpin to produce a flex-worthy advantage.

For fantasy managers looking at deeper options, Washington is a realistic pivot. I promise this isn’t reactionary. Washington’s breakout performance in Week 13 was directly related to Gabe Davis being out and Houston’s secondary becoming more vulnerable after the ejection of Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. With Davis out, Washington will see an increase in rushing plays. The opportunity is there, the only question is whether Mac Jones can have a solid game and provide enough volume to his receiving corps.

This week’s game against Tennessee is intriguing. The Titans have been generous to opposing quarterbacks and receivers in the second half of the season. While the quarterback volume wasn’t always extremely high against Tennessee, it was enough to produce several fantasy-relevant receivers.

Despite the defensive struggles here on both sides, Vegas doesn’t expect this to be a high-scoring game with an over/under of just 40.5. However, the expectation is for a close matchup and that dynamic should allow the Jaguars to put together a balanced attack. For Mac Jones to be successful, we want him to play a close, comfortable game where he can distribute the ball effectively.

It takes a strong stomach to play against Washington given the volatility of the Jags’ offense. As a second option after Brian Thomas Jr. However, Washington offers potential volume in a week where volume could be king.

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